RST Trades Made The Day
What Tuesday’s Action Tells
You
The major indices closed up yesterday, with
the
SPX
(
$SPX.X |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) 1110.70, +0.6%, and the Dow
(
$INDU |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) 10,185, +0.8%,
but
somehow it felt like a down day until there were some long opportunities in
the
last hour. The Nasdaq
(
$COMPQ |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) and
(
QQQ |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)s lagged, with each of
them
up +0.2%, while in the sectors, the
(
SMH |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) was +1.1%, with the BKX, CYC
and
PPH all up just over 1.0%. The
(
OIH |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) was -1.1%, but remains on the focus
watch today on the longside as long as it hold its 68.94 50-day EMA that it
bounced off of last Thursday.
NYSE volume ended at 1.41 billion, with a volume
ratio of 66, and breadth +573, so I didn’t see any early Triple Witch activity.
(I don’t include single-stock futures because it’s a non-event so far.) To follow
up yesterday’s charts, I have included the SPX monthly chart with the 12-month
EMA and SMA which highlights the EMA benefit as it started to roll under and
flatten out (1), as the 8, 17, 9 MACD was going positive. It also points out
that the SPX will retrace at some point to the 12-month moving average, just
as it did four times on the decline from the 1553 high.
size=2>Â | Wednesday
3/10 | Thursday
3/11 | Friday
3/12 | Monday
3/15 | Tuesday
3/16 |
color=#0000ff>Index | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â |
color=#0000ff>SPX | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â |
color=#0000ff>High | 1141.45 | 1125.96 | 1120.63 | 1120.57 | 1113.82 |
color=#0000ff>Low | 1122.62 | 1105.87 | 1106.78 | 1103.36 | 1102.61 |
color=#0000ff>Close | 1123.91 | 1106.79 | 1120.60 | 1104.43 | 1110.70 |
color=#0000ff>% | -1.5 | -1.5 | +1.3 | -1.4 | +0.6 |
color=#0000ff>Range | 18.6 | 20.1 | 13.9 | 17.1 | 11.2 |
color=#0000ff>% Range | 7 | 5 | 99 | 6 | 72 |
color=#0000ff>INDU | 10297 | 10128 | 10240 | 10103 | 10185 |
color=#0000ff>% | -1.5 | -1.6 | +1.1 | -1.3 | +0.8 |
color=#0000ff>Nasdaq | 1964 | 1944 | 1985 | 1939 | 1943 |
color=#0000ff>% | -1.6 | -1.0 | +2.1 | -2.3 | +0.2 |
color=#0000ff>QQQ | 35.17 | 34.88 | 35.52 | 34.90 | 34.95 |
color=#0000ff>% | -1.4 | -0.8 | +1.9 | -1.7 | +0.2 |
color=#0000ff>NYSE | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â |
color=#0000ff>T. VOL | 1.65 | 1.89 | 1.39 | 1.53 | 1.41 |
color=#0000ff>U. VOL | 197 | 254 | 1.20 | 168 | 913 |
color=#0000ff>D. VOL | 1.44 | 1.61 | 177 | 1.35 | 478 |
color=#0000ff>VR | 12 | 14 | 87 | 11 | 66 |
color=#0000ff>4 MA | 29 | 18 | 33 | 31 | 44 |
color=#0000ff>5 RSI | 17 | 12 | 35 | 25 | 34 |
color=#0000ff>ADV | 845 | 898 | 2442 | 850 | 1933 |
color=#0000ff>DEC | 2472 | 2420 | 877 | 2440 | 1360 |
color=#0000ff>A-D | -1627 | -1572 | +1565 | -1590 | +573 |
color=#0000ff>4 MA | -453 | -1136 | -617 | -806 | -256 |
color=#0000ff>SECTORS | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â |
color=#0000ff>SMH | -2.0 | -0.8 | +2.1 | -2.6 | +1.1 |
color=#0000ff>BKX | -1.4 | -1.5 | +1.2 | -1.0 | +1.2 |
color=#0000ff>XBD | -2.2 | -1.6 | +2.0 | -2.4 | +0.4 |
color=#0000ff>RTH | -2.1 | -0.9 | +0.9 | -1.4 | +0.2 |
color=#0000ff>CYC | -2.7 | -1.0 | +2.0 | -1.9 | +1.0 |
color=#0000ff>PPH | -2.2 | -2.2 | +.03 | -1.0 | +1.3 |
color=#0000ff>OIH | -3.3 | -1.8 | +2.0 | +0.7 | -1.0 |
color=#0000ff>BBH | -1.8 | -1.3 | +1.5 | -2.5 | -0.8 |
color=#0000ff>TLT | -.06 | +0.1 | -0.7 | +0.1 | +0.8 |
color=#0000ff>XAU | -3.2 | +1.2 | -0.4 | -2.3 | +1.2 |
^next^
Â
For Active
Traders
After the early up yesterday with the SPX
advancing to 1113.82 on the 9:35 a.m. ET bar from the previous day’s 1104.43
close, the major indices went sideways until 2:45 p.m. when the SPX traded
down
and took out Monday’s 1103.36 low. This made all RST players happy, as you
got
entry above 1103.71 on the 3:05 p.m. bar, and the trade carried up to
1112.75,
closing at 1110.70.
The SMHs, which were a primary focus
yesterday,
was the better trade. It took out Monday’s low of 38.57, trading to 38.34,
right
into the middle of a confluence zone you have had sitting on your desk for
several weeks (including yesterday’s commentary). RST entry was above the
38.44
high of that narrow-range bar with the increased volume. Entry was also on
the
3:05 p.m. bar, the same as the SPX (futures or SPY), then the trade carried
+1.7% to 39.08, closing at 39. The 200-day EMA was just below at 38, and the
SMHs took out the 12/16/03 38.41 low, then re-crossed it on your trade.
Taking
out the 38.41 low set up a potential daily chart RST, but if you also
daytrade,
you took the RST yesterday afternoon and some of you kept it because there
was a
decent profit cushion above the 38.44 entry level.
Today’s
Action
You are just a pawn in the game at Triple Witch
time, so don’t get cerebral the next three days. The early futures are green,
so if it goes up early, then the SPX 240 EMA (five-minute chart) went out at
1113.21, with the 20-period EMA of the 120-minute chart above at about 1121.
For the past four days, the SPX has crossed and re-crossed its 89-day EMA of
1108.53, so that would be the initial downside line.
The way the QQQs traded yesterday it appears
they
might try to peg 35 for option expiration, although yesterday’s RST entry
above
34.71 ran +1.2% to 35.11. If there is any upside emotion today, the initial
daytrade resistance is 35.12 (240 EMA), then 35.38, and then
35.70.
The SMH starts out with the 240 EMA at 39.05,
then you have 39.41 and 39.86.
The
(
DIA |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)s did not take out Monday’s low,
so
there’s no RST setup.
(
MMM |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) had an earnings pop yesterday of +5.3%,
with
(
CAT |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) +1.9%. CAT opened at 74.50 and took out the previous day’s 74.65
high and hit 75.70 on just the 9:35 a.m. bar. It then backed off and once again
hit 75.70 on the 10:05 a.m.bar, which as it often is, was reversal time. CAT
sold off to 74.25, then had another run above that 74.65 high up to 75.75, closing
at 75.35. Love that travel range. Things very often happen around rising 200-day
EMAs after retracements from highs.
If energy goes green today, look to
(
RIG |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
SLB |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
BJS |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
BHI |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) and also the OIH.
Some other stocks that have decent setups are
(
IGT |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
MCO |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
CFC |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
PGR |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
NCC |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
SU |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
DGX |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) (19-day range
and 20-day EMA),
(
YUM |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
ESRX |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
BMET |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) (intraday pullback only),
(
PDCO |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
QCOM |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) and
(
ADVP |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating).
On the short side, stay with the major
indices
and HOLDRs.
Happy St. Patrick’s Day,
Kevin Haggerty