Same Old Song And Dance
I hate to sound like a broken
record. I want to say something different. I want
to come up with something new. I just can’t. I let the markets dictate
to me, not the other way around. Very simply,
the markets continue to sing the
same song. So…here we go again.
TECHNOLOGY stocks are a
horror show. BIOTECHS look terrible…and both have
shown no ability to rally. This is amazing
considering the drops both areas have
incurred. Normally, you get decent bounces along the way. Haven’t seen
one. Maybe soon…but all bounces in these
areas are sellable at this juncture.
Big-cap TECH is the worst
area of TECHS. I remember when there was the “big 5″
that every portfolio had to have. They were Oracle
(
ORCL |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating), Sun Micro
(
SUNW |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating), Cisco
(
CSCO |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating), Microsoft
(
MSFT |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) and WorldCom
(
WCOM |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating). You may not want to
look at these charts if it’s night time.
The bigger-cap indices are all gagging. I simply haven’t
seen anything that tells me to
change my stance. The NASDAQ and even uglier, NASDAQ
100 have shown no life
and are displaying waterfall-type action.
The S&P 500 is now
sitting at February support and acting ugly. In fact, one could
argue that it is displaying a reverse cup-and-handle.
The DOW is no great shakes
either. A break below 9811, last Monday’s low, would
be ominous.
I continue to want you to focus on these areas for the
long side: DEFENSIVE
CONSUMER, DEFENSE,
OIL & GAS, MISC. RETAIL,
RESTAURANTS, HEALTH CARE
and FINANCIAL.
Please keep in mind that most of the FINANCIALS
that are leading are illiquid,
light-trading names.
Lastly, I still have a big problem with sentiment. The
percentage of bullish advisors
continues to remain too high. This amazes me in light of the major
trashing going on in certain areas. Until this
changes, you must be careful.
I will say that I am starting to read a lot of articles
and see a bunch of magazine
covers on the lack of investor confidence. Maybe that starts to change
the playing field…but haven’t seen it yet.