Sector By Sector, Stock By Stock
Before I get into my commentary,
I had to put my 2 cents in on what Maryland Public
Television decided to do this past week. In their infinite wisdom,
they decided to replace Lou Rukeyser on
“Wall Street Week.” These geniuses decided
that the show wasn’t hot enough…wasn’t updated enough…wasn’t cool
enough. You know, it needs to be spiffed up…needs to be updated because
it is the 2000s. These people are ill.
You see, while Mr. Rukeyser was not perfect…and
he has definitely stayed bullish throughout this debacle…he is what I believe
financial journalists should be, that is, quiet,
understated, to the point…and most importantly…he let the news be
the news. He did not try to become the news. I have only met Mr. Rukeyser once,
so I don’t know him personally. I just think that, especially in the last two
years, these numbskulls in TV LAND would understand that flash and
fluff and cheerleading is not what most
investors want. My mute button is on most
of the day when listening to most financial TV personalities. I don’t
know what you think, but this one boggles the
mind.
Certain themes are now playing out in the market that you
need to know about. Breakouts
are becoming few and far between. This is the point you take a few
steps backward and wait.
The Nasdaq is still under-performing woefully,
specifically TECHNOLOGY. It is showing
an inability to break above the 50 DMA…and the 50 DMA is in a downtrend.
This is not good. The Nasdaq is now uncomfortably below the 1870 support.
A break below 1802 negates the latest breakout off the lows…and if
by chance the Nasdaq decides to break
1690…well…let’s cross that bridge if
we get there.
I am becoming more emboldened by my HOMEBUILDERS call.
“The” top may have been
put in. These stocks have been doing well for quite some time, but things
change. No buying in these names at all here.
I am seeing a couple of names that
look more vulnerable than others…both Centex
(
CTX |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) and Beazer Homes
(
BZH |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) have
dropped below the 50 DMA and are
now showing an inability to move back above it. If others follow
this lead, this group could be in big, big trouble.
CYCLICALS are pulling back as I suggested. Most still look
fine. They were just way above
their moving averages…which is abnormal for the group. I will
be watching to see if they start breaking down.
Watch the S&P 500 closely. It already was turned back
at resistance at 1177. Its
50-day average is sitting at 1128…which sits right at its latest short–term
breakout.
The market remains a sector-by-sector, stock-by-stock
game. I remember about a year
ago when I said that the markets could be in the same spot in a year.
That’s exactly what happened. Well, I am
saying the same thing again. But the markets
don’t care what I think, so I will keep watching and keep interpreting.
GOLD continues to be leadership. In fact, it now looks
like many names are about to
break out of another base. I have no idea how far this group goes…but
so far…this is one powerful group. This could have negative implications
for the rest of the market.