September Is Upon Us. What Has That Historically Meant For The Market?

August 31, 2004
Brice Wightman

Stocks were higher
Tuesday. The market rallied into
the close after early disappointing economic data and lowered Intel expectations
send the morning session lower. The Conference Board reported a sharp
decline in consumer confidence in August, at 98.2 vs. 105.7 in July. The
Chicago PMI fell to 57.3. Both figures were lower than expected and the
lowest levels since May. Morgan Stanley lowered its revenue estimate and
target price on Intel
(
INTC |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating), which gives its mid-quarter update on
Thursday. Intel slid to a 14-month low intraday before rallying to close at
21.28, down 0.32.

According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac, the
average market performance for September is -0.7%, and for the past 53 years,
September is the worst
overall month for the stock market. Since 1950, the S&P has seen 21 Septembers
in plus-territory, while 31 have been down. During that same time, if you had
bought and held stocks only in September, you’d have lost 38% of your money.
October has a bad reputation, but in fact it has better-than-average
performance, with an average 0.8% gain. April is the best month, followed by November,
December and January.Â

CEOs who outsource get bigger bonuses. This from a study at the Institute for
Policy Studies. While the average CEO got a 9% raise in 2003, CEOs from the 50 firms who outsourced the most service
jobs saw their compensation rise 46%.

Oil has fallen $8 in as many days, as pipeline
repairs have southern Basra crude near capacity at 1.7 million bpd.

REITs and Homebuilders had good
returns in August, with REITS +7.4% and Homebuilders +7.2%.

The jobs number is Friday, a day after Bush gives
his acceptance speech at the Republican National Convention.Â Â Â

Dow	+51.40	10173.92
S&P 500	+5.09	1104.24
Nasdaq	+1.61	1838.10

10-year Notes were +120 at 113 150

The dollar
was -0.76 at 89.90

Gold was +2.10 at 409.80

Crude Oil was -0.13 at
42.15

Volume was 1.13 billion
on the NYSE and 1.26 billion on the Nasdaq.

Market breadth was negative.

NYSE	Issues
Advancing	2246	Up Vol 604
Declining	1052	Down Vol 327
Ratio	2.13	1.40
Nasdaq
Advancing	1739	Up Vol 431
Declining	1321	Down Vol 700
Ratio	1.31	2.62

Stocks in the News

A major study
showed that Merck’s (MRK)
Zocar showed no conclusive benefit in preventing new cardiac problems in
patients who have had heart attacks. Just last week, patients taking Merck’s
VIOXX were found to have 50% more heart attacks than patients taking Pfizer’s
Celebrex.

Albertson’s (ABS)
reported a drop in quarterly profit– down 36% in Q2 — citing the strike in
Southern California.

Schwab (SCH)
sold its Soundview unit to UBS for $265 million.

Ballard Power
(
BLDP |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) is higher after the company said it received
a contract with a “major global automaker,” but declined to state which one.

Fuel Cell
(
FCEL |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) is higher after posting better-than-expected
results.

The owner of the Washington Redskins, Daniel
Snyder, bought an 8.8% stake in Six Flags (PKS).

Kohl’s
(
KSS |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) was upgraded at Merrill Lynch.

Quarterly profits at United Natural Foods
(UNFI)
rose after the company regained its deal to be the primary distributor to Wild
Oats Market.

Brice Wightman

September Is Upon Us. What Has That Historically Meant For The Market?

BUY THE FEAR, SELL THE GREED

Quick Links

Company Info

Contact

Company Resources