Some Good Action
If I had a
dollar for every time I have been asked whether yesterday was the
bottom…well, you know what comes next.Â
The answer is: It
doesn’t matter!
Most investors have forgotten some very important statistics.
At this week’s lows, the S&P 500 is at the same price as it was in July 1998.
That’s three years, in case you don’t have a calendar.
The Dow is at the same
place as it was in April 1999. That’s 27 months.
The Nasdaq has to go all
the way back to April of 1998.
I know there have been major ups and downs during this time (especially the Nasdaq).
I just think it is now important to recognize that the major indices are in a
long-term box. There are going to be plenty of breakouts, breakdowns,
reversals…
It is more important to get out the microscope and just search for stocks and
sectors. Indices do matter…but only when there is a definable trend.
Sectors: There are a few good-looking
sectors at this juncture. I am seeing good action in Rails,
Truckers, Misc. Medical and Retail along with a little bit of this and
that or that and this. The problem is that the market is missing really strong
leadership that can kick it in gear for more than a few weeks.
Stocks:Â
(
HDI |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) breaks out of an 11-month
base on strong daily and weekly volume.
(
BEC |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) moves out of a long base but volume is tepid. Probably want to wait
for better conviction…but good chart.
(
IVX |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) setting up nicely. A break above $39.60 would be very bullish.
(
CBH |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) powers out on heavy volume. A little extended so look for pullbacks
toward the $73-$74 range.
Notice the differing
sectors these stocks are in.
Lastly, Technology! I believe there could be upside
testing… but I am finding more shortable than longable charts. That statement
should speak for itself.
Have a great weekend!