Some Good Position Trades In The Days To Come
The Week Ahead
After a weekend away from the screens it always
helps me to take a quick look of Sunday evening to get a quick lay of the land
and see what might be in the works technically for the week ahead. Last week,
as we all know saw not only a prolonged sell-off in the major averages (long
overdue and probably quite a shock to the “dipsters” (buyers of dips who think
that that is the way the market always works, a.k.a. a Fleckism)). It simply
seemed like no buyers ever showed up that had some strong convictions.Â
Technically here is where we stand. Keep an eye on some of these levels
intra-day as possible triggers for accelerated moves in
HVT.
As you know, there continue to be solid
opportunities each day in HVT, albeit in a different manner than I had grown
accustomed to over the last 10 years. For one thing, there are fewer
opportunities each day, and secondly, they rarely occur in the same stock(s) day
in and day out. This is quite the departure from the HVT long-time readers have
come to know. A typical HVT day resembles a chess match in terms of time in
between trades and does require that you expand your horizons intra-day to see
what the Most Active and Most Up/Most Down are trading. Change is
always a little challenging, however, if you step outside your comfort zone a
little bit, while not forgetting the basic techniques that make you a successful
trader, you will find that the market still provides opportunities.
FX:
The FX markets were also pretty wild last week.Â
With most major currencies making major intra-day moves, only to make a similar
move back in the other direction the next day. It was not a market to perfect
you swing trading skills. Short-term trading and remaining on the sidelines
were the only viable options I saw. Nonetheless, after the dust settled the
daily charts were demonstrating some intriguing patterns which will likely offer
some good Position Trades in the days to come.
As we all know, the USD/JPY
went on a bender to the down-side last week. This was rather comforting given
that I had suggested in last Monday’s column that from a technical standpoint
all the signals were flashing short. However, of all the currency pairs out
there, the Yen is a different beast altogether due to constant intervention
(selling Yen) by the BoJ. Technical analysis alone cannot keep one safe
from these whipsaw moves, and after last weeks tremendous run, the well may be
running dry. So, the question remains, is the BoJ going to pare back
interventions now that the Japanese fiscal year draws to a close? Recent
comments by Japanese policymakers make no mention that there stance on
intervention has changed. So, after this steep rise in the Yen this week,
intervention could and likely will occur at any time.
As always, feel free to send me your comments and
questions.