Start Studying
I have to
start this report with a little commentary about Wayne Angell. If you
listen to my radio show, you should know by now that I try not to pull any
punches. This is especially so when I see utter stupidity. Just in the past few
weeks, I have screamed about Battapaglia’s prediction of a 75% rise in the Nasdaq,
Garzarelli’s lock for the S&P 500 40% rise, and now it’s Mr. Angell’s turn.
I have no problem with anyone having an
opinion. It’s what makes the world go round. It is the extreme opinions
that make me ill. It is those opinions that may make a retired widow go out and
buy the QQQ. It is the type of talk that came out of Mr. Angell’s mouth that got
the market rolling for a day. You see, Mr. Angell forgot that he had clout.
Saying that the fed would cut rates this week and that it was written in stone
was a mistake. Not because he was wrong and it didn’t happen. It was because
investors are on pins and needles and are looking for any light at the end of
the tunnel.
Of course, his prediction was woefully wrong and he now looks like the “south end of
a northbound mule.” Amazingly, he changed his mind on CNBC yesterday. I want my readers to not listen or act upon all this
extreme talk. I believe it is more important to let the market’s action dictate
your investing. Last year’s predictions bear this out.
Speaking of the “south end of a northbound mule,” the bear market is
now really starting to gain teeth. As you know, I have not liked the action in
the market for a long time. But the carnage in the Nasdaq is beyond belief. The
leading stocks of last year are now down in the 70’s and I am not talking Internet. The only thing you need to know is that the selling continues.
Institutional action cannot be hidden. After all, the Nasdaq dropped over 22% in
February. Trust me, this is not Aunt Mary and Uncle Bob doing the selling.
So, nothing has changed for me. I would
continue to give the action the utmost respect. The S&P 500 looks horrid and
the Dow looks ready for the Big Kazoo.You may want
to take a gander at these charts on a weekly basis going back five years. Looks
like one big giant broadening top. The one area that continues to hold up is Retailing…but…
I would not be making huge bets. You know my motto: “Eventually
They Get Them All.”
I know it’s tough but bear markets separate the successes from the failures. I
continue to urge you to learn from your mistakes and start studying the markets. Most investors will be very sick by the time the bear ends and won’t
want back in…until it is up 50%-100% and everyone starts to get bullish again.
I want to be around right at the turn. All new bull markets start the same way.
Learn those characteristics and you will be way ahead of the game.