Stay On Your Guard
The
rough and tough market continues. Sometimes it
is not just what I
see…but also how I feel.
So
how do I feel?
I
continue to believe that this market goes nowhere in fits and starts with not
much progress.
I continue to believe that you can’t treat this market as a monolithic thing
but to play it sector by sector.
I
continue to believe that with the S&P 500
(
$SPX.X |
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PowerRating) where it was almost four years ago, there is a secular change
that no one wants to talk about.
I continue to believe that you can exploit areas but must babysit day to day.
I
continue to believe Nokia
(
NOK |
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News |
PowerRating) is full
of it. For the fifth time in 18 months, reality is always worse than their
predictions. I wouldn’t let them handle my checkbook. AOL
Time Warner
(
AOL |
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News |
PowerRating), IBM
(
IBM |
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News |
PowerRating),
Nokia
(
NOK |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating), Computer
Associates
(
CA |
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Chart |
News |
PowerRating), General Electric
(
GE |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)…the list goes on and on of companies that have lost credibility.
I
continue to believe that even though companies like Novellus
Systems
(
NVLS |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) come out with a loss and revenues down 63%, the
talking heads and doughnuthead analysts will tell you it was a blowout quarter.
I continue to believe there will be too much emphasis on Alan Greenspan and his
moves. In case you don’t know…even after 11 Fed cuts, the market is still way
down since Jan. 3, 2001…the day of the first rate cut. I thought the market always
went up when the Fed was on the market’s side.
I
continue to believe the low beta longs and high beta shorts is the name of the
game.
I
continue to believe TradingMarkets.com is by far, the best educational tool you
can use to further your trading and investing education. I learn something new
every day from the studs on this site…and in case I haven’t said it in a
while…I am so proud and humbled to be included in the mix.
Now…back
to the charts.
In
case you were wondering about the Dow. Let’s take a look at a few names.
Boeing
(
BA |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating): Complete Breakdown.
IBM
(
IBM |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating): Looks like a bungee jump.
United
Technologies
(
UTX |
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Chart |
News |
PowerRating):
See Boeing
(
BA |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating).
Honeywell
International
(
HON |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating): Breaking down.
General
Electric
(
GE |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating): Yikes!
Intel
(
INTC |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating): Can’t get out of its own way.
Microsoft
(
MSFT |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating): Broke $58 support…reports earnings after the close
today.
Now
you know how far I think the Dow can go near-term.
I
didn’t leave you with many positives today…but there are things
working. The New High List remains strong and there
remains strong areas.
There
has been nothing wrong with the Small and Mid-Caps…There
has been
nothing wrong with areas like HMOs, S&Ls, miscellaneous
Retail, Restaurants, Oil & Gas. I just want you to stay on your
guard. The
average individual who visits my office looking for my services is down over
50% in the last two years. That is no hill for a climber.