Gary Kaltbaum is an investment adviser with over 25 years experience, and a Fox News Channel Business Contributor. Gary is the author of The Investors Edge. Mr. Kaltbaum is also the host of the nationally syndicated radio show “Investors Edge” on over 50 radio stations. Gary is also editor and publisher of “Gary Kaltbaum’s Trendwatch”… a weekly and monthly technical analysis research report for the institutional investor. If you would like a free trial to Gary’s Daily Market Alerts click here or call 888.484.8220 ext. 1.
Commentary for August 10, 2010
I am depressed, distraught and everything else that comes with those words. I cannot believe the unmitigated gall of those who continue to not listen to the people. How long is this going to continue? How long do we have to suffer? No…I am not talking about Washington DC today…I am talking about James Dolan hiring Isiah Thomas as a consultant.
As a long suffering, rabid Knicks fan, I have had to live with years of depressing play, terrible losses, horrible draft picks and below par free agents. It was bad enough they let a warrior like David Lee leave while bringing in Amare Stoudemire as “the savior” but now I have to deal with Isiah again? Why not just bring Edward Smith back to captain another ship? Woe is me and all other Knicks fans.
Speaking of Washington, I urge you read two articles/op-eds. One is from Monday’s Wall Street Journal by Michael Fleischer entitled “Why I’m Not Hiring!” and one from the UK’s Telegraph by Nile Gardiner on the Obama administration. Couldn’t write it better myself. I am sure you can Google both.
Mixed, rangebound, backing and filling. Whichever you want to call it, the market remains in a wide range…and for the most part, squarely in the middle. But the good news is that in spite of more suspect economic news (it’s all George Bush’s fault), the market refuses to sell off since it came off recent lows. Friday was another case as the market opened lower on a poor jobs number…only to reverse into the close.
These are the toughest markets to play as markets stay rangebound with increasing intraday volatility. In fact, recent gaps and reversals on both sides have been very tough to play. On top of this, half of the charts are in decent shape while half still remain in poor shape…so those thinking we are start of a new big move, methinks we are going to need a few more cards coming out of the deck…and they had better see some high cards.
For those thinking the end of the world is at hand (and many think it is), until markets get some serious bouts of distribution, expect more of this stalemate type action as the markets are now in the meat of resistance.
Separating things apart, there still remains a bunch of important areas being left behind. For starters, most FINANCIALS are still not happening. While off their lows, most are still below their highs with a few names maybe in the midst of breaking down…you may want to take a look at names like PNC, CMA and BAC.
RETAILERS continue to find very little in the way of leadership and relative strength. Rallies have been anemic and short-lived. The good news on Monday was that a few names have finally started to turn up their right side but need to see more.
The SEMIS (SOX) remain in the low end of range and need to hold this 345-350 or see you back at recent lows.
Other good news is the down and out COMMODITY stocks have come up their right side in a hurry as the EURO has soared while the DOLLAR has been taking a bruising. COMMODITY stocks had been left for dead. You can add AG to this mix as things like WHEAT have moved parabolic on supply concerns. This fits in with COMMODITY areas like ASIA, BRAZIL and others now leading the way. Previously, the U.S. had led.
Shorter-term, here are the resistance levels to keep your eye on. A break above and another leg up are coming…S&P 1131…NASDAQ 2307 and the 2341…RUSSELL 2000 (which is lagging) 672-677 area. An inability to break above just keeps the market in the soup.
As I have been stating, no matter what, it is not going to be easy. When you have half the tape still not working, markets become tougher. My bigger issue right now is the Fed. There has been trial balloons floated that the Fed, along with the administration, is ready to do something else…even the crazy idea to forgive portions of mortgages that are underwater…or something like that. I am wondering now whether expectations have been built up too much…and if the Fed does nothing…that the market could suffer again. We will know in a couple of days. If they are crazy enough to forgive a percentage of mortgages underwater, you will hear an outcry from those who did things right. They will be asking why nothing has been done for them…and they will be right in asking.
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed herein are those of the writer and may not reflect those of Wunderlich Securities, Inc. or any of its affiliates. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results. Securities offered through Wunderlich Securities Inc.