Gary Kaltbaum is an investment adviser with over 25 years experience, and is a Fox News Channel Business Contributor. Gary is the author of The Investors Edge. Mr. Kaltbaum is also the host of the nationally syndicated radio show “Investors Edge” on over 50 radio stations. Gary is also editor and publisher of “Gary Kaltbaum’s Trendwatch”… a weekly and monthly technical analysis research report for the institutional investor. If you would like a free trial to Gary’s Daily Market Alerts click here.
Do not tell me it is because economic growth is better. Do not tell me it is because Greece is going to get worked out. I thought that was worked out a year ago. For whatever the reasons, support continues to hold, keeping the market in a 14 week trading range. With today’s strong open, we now get to see if the market has enough to possibly get back to recent highs…and then maybe through resistance.
In past reports, I reported to you the facts. The major averages were still holding support but while that was going on, many areas were getting in trouble. I gave you out support levels that if breached, look out. These levels have now held as the dollar is back to being smoked. It all started when the Fed announced more monopoly money spending. You can time it to the minute. Early last week, the minute the Fed’s spending was announced, the dollar swooned,commodities bottomed and the market held. But I do not rationalize why. I care about what is.
While the major averages were about flat last week, a few leading growth names broke to new highs…a decent sign. But that is just a sign. The market needs to follow through and confirm an uptrend.
At the open today, all major averages will be at or back above the all-important 50 day moving average. As I have told you, nothing bad happens when price is above this level. This is on top of the better commodity action in the past week on the back of the weakening dollar. I will be looking for a higher volume day with the major averages being up over 1.5% or more to tell me the market can possibly start a new uptrend. It would be nice. I hate trading ranges. Give me a bull. Give me a bear. Don’t give me rangebound action.
Even with today’s strong open, the 14 week trading range continues. There is still resistance that major averages need to get through to get the market going again. The good news is that if today’s open holds, the ledge will hold for now and if the market has a follow-through day, I will become more emboldened.
Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.