The Market Balking At The Highs — Here’s Why
BOND MARKET RECAP
10/4/2004
December Bonds closed up 0-07 at 111-22. This was
0-25 up from the low and 0-02 off the high.
December 10 Yr Treasury Notes finished up 0-035
at 112-085, 0-010 off the high and 0-150 up from the low.
The Treasury bond market posted a tight
range Monday in the face of countervailing developments. With equity prices
ultra strong again bonds could have come under pressure especially since the Fed
suggested that the US economy was strong enough to create between 100,000 and
150,000 jobs per month. The Fed also suggested that the US economy was capable
of handling current energy price levels. On the bull side of the coin the
Treasury market saw a weaker than expected US factory order decline of 0.1% and
expectations from a 0.3% decline in durable goods for Tuesday morning and that
seem to pull the market out of negative territory around mid session.
Technical Outlook
BONDS (DEC) 10/05/2004: Momentum studies trending
lower at mid-range should accelerate a move lower if support levels are taken
out. The market’s close below the 9-day moving average is an indication the
short-term trend remains negative. The upside closing price reversal on the
daily chart is somewhat bullish. The market has a slightly positive tilt with
the close over the swing pivot. The next downside target is 110-22. The next
area of resistance is around 112-03 and 112-11, while 1st support hits today at
111-09 and below there at 110-22.
TNOTES (DEC) 10/05/2004: Negative momentum
studies in the neutral zone will tend to reinforce lower price action. The
market’s close below the 9-day moving average is an indication the short-term
trend remains negative. The daily closing price reversal up on the daily chart
is somewhat positive. The market has a slightly positive tilt with the close
over the swing pivot. The next downside target is 111-215. The next area of
resistance is around 112-175 and 112-220, while 1st support hits today at
112-015 and below there at 111-215.
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STOCK INDICES RECAP
10/4/2004
December S&P finished up 2.3 at 1135.5, 5.5 off the high and
0.5 up from the low.
December S&P E-Mini closed up 2.25 at 1135.5. This was 4.5 up
from the low and 5.75 off the high.
December Dow closed up 15 at 10207. This was 5 up from the low
and 58 off the high.
December Dow E-Mini finished up 13 at 10205, 61 off the high
and 15 up from the low.
The stock market started out ultra strong but
then seemed to lose momentum as the session progressed. However, considering
that US economic reports were again disappointing and that energy prices failed
to extend early losses we can understand the market balking at the highs Monday.
The Fed also suggested that they had a long way to go in hiking rates and that
might have undermined some of the bullish sentiment. However, comments from the
Fed that the US economy could easily add from 100,000 to 150,000 new jobs per
month and that the economy was also capable of handling current energy prices
seemed to shift the pendulum back into the bull camp later in the session.
Technical Outlook
S&P 500 (DEC) 10/05/2004: Momentum studies are
rising from mid-range, which could accelerate a move higher if resistance levels
are penetrated. The market’s short-term trend is positive on the close above the
9-day moving average. Follow through buying looks likely if the market can hold
yesterday’s gap on the day session chart. The close over the pivot swing is a
somewhat positive setup. The next upside target is 1142.75. The next area of
resistance is around 1138.50 and 1142.75, while 1st support hits today at
1132.50 and below there at 1130.75.
SP EMINI (DEC) 10/05/2004: Momentum studies are
trending higher from mid-range, which should support a move higher if resistance
levels are penetrated. The market’s short-term trend is positive on the close
above the 9-day moving average. It is a mildly bullish indicator that the market
closed over the pivot swing number. The next upside objective is 1146.06. The
next area of resistance is around 1140.62 and 1146.06, while 1st support hits
today at 1130.38 and below there at 1125.57.
NASDAQ (DEC) 10/05/2004: The market rallied to a
new contract high. Rising stochastics at overbought levels warrant some caution
for bulls. The market’s short-term trend is positive on the close above the
9-day moving average. Follow through buying looks likely if the market can hold
yesterday’s gap on the day session chart. With the close higher than the pivot
swing number, the market is in a slightly bullish posture. The next upside
objective is 1482.37. The market is becoming somewhat overbought now that the
RSI is over 70. The next area of resistance is around 1471.75 and 1482.37, while
1st support hits today at 1456.25 and below there at 1451.38.
MINIDOW (DEC) 10/05/2004: Momentum studies are
trending higher from mid-range, which should support a move higher if resistance
levels are penetrated. The close above the 9-day moving average is a positive
short-term indicator for trend. The close over the pivot swing is a somewhat
positive setup. The next upside objective is 10293. The next area of resistance
is around 10244 and 10293, while 1st support hits today at 10168 and below there
at 10141.
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CURRENCY MARKET RECAP
10/4/2004
December US Dollar finished up 78 at 8854, 23 off the high and
62 up from the low.
December Euro finished down 1.19 at 122.87, 0.13 off the high
and 0.34 up from the low.
December Euro Dollar closed down 0.015 at 97.68. This was 0.01
up from the low and 0.005 off the high.
December Canadian Dollar closed down 0.6 at 78.53. This was
0.23 up from the low and 0.23 off the high.
December British Pound finished down 1.34 at 177.45, 0.21 off
the high and 0.27 up from the low.
December Swiss closed down 0.91 at 79.3. This was 0.24 up from
the low and 0.12 off the high.
December Japanese Yen closed down 0.35 at 90.58. This was 0.33
up from the low and 0.02 off the high.
The Dollar seemed to do more than simply bounce
on Monday as gains against the major currencies were more than just technical in
nature. With the US Fed out in force with suggestions that US rates had a long
way to go before the Fed would rest it almost seemed like the trader was
ratcheting up the interest rate differential expectations. We also think that
the Forex markets took the Fed’s comments about the US economy being capable of
producing 100,000 to 150,000 new jobs per month and upgraded the economic
differential. Therefore, the market would seem to have a near term interest in
the Dollar and the technical significance of the action Monday would seem to
leave the Dollar entrenched in the upside for at least another couple sessions.
Technical Outlook
YEN (DEC) 10/05/2004: Stochastics are at
mid-range but trending higher, which should reinforce a move higher if
resistance levels are taken out. The market’s close below the 9-day moving
average is an indication the short-term trend remains negative. The gap lower on
the day session chart is bearish and puts the market on the defensive. The
defensive setup, with the close under the 2nd swing support, could cause some
early weakness. The near-term upside objective is at 90.85. The next area of
resistance is around 90.75 and 90.85, while 1st support hits today at 90.41 and
below there at 90.16.
EURO (DEC) 10/05/2004: The daily stochastics have
crossed over down which is a bearish indication. Momentum studies are trending
lower from high levels which should accelerate a move lower on a break below the
1st swing support. The market’s close below the 9-day moving average is an
indication the short-term trend remains negative. The gap lower on the day
session chart is bearish and puts the market on the defensive. The market is in
a bearish position with the close below the 2nd swing support number. The next
downside target is now at 122.35. The next area of resistance is around 123.10
and 123.28, while 1st support hits today at 122.64 and below there at 122.35.
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PRECIOUS METALS RECAP
10/4/2004
December Gold closed down 5.6 at 415.6. This was 2.3 up from
the low and 1.9 off the high.
December Silver finished down 0.178 at 6.765, 0.105 off the
high and 0.045 up from the low.
October Platinum closed down 30.4 at 831. This was 16 up from
the low and 13 off the high.
The gold and silver markets came under more
intense liquidation, as the session wore on Monday but considering the magnitude
of the Dollar recovery it’s not surprising that a number of precious metals
bulls decided to exit. The fact that gold, silver, platinum and copper all fell
at the same time it is clear that the Asian holiday contributed to the slide in
prices. However, because gold and silver seemed to be rising on more than a
single issue over the last two weeks it was a little surprising that the
liquidation move on Monday was so dominating. We have to think that the ongoing
fear of rising interest rates and the upward momentum in US equity prices
prompted more selling in gold than would have normally been the case.
Technical Outlook
SILVER (DEC) 10/05/2004: Momentum studies are
trending higher but have entered overbought levels. The market’s short-term
trend is positive on the close above the 9-day moving average. The gap lower on
the day session chart is bearish and puts the market on the defensive. There
could be some early pressure today given the market’s negative setup with the
close below the 2nd swing support. The near-term upside objective is at 693.0.
The next area of resistance is around 684.0 and 693.0, while 1st support hits
today at 669.1 and below there at 663.1.
GOLD (DEC) 10/05/2004: A bearish signal was
triggered on a crossover down in the daily stochastics. Momentum studies
trending lower from overbought levels is a bearish indicator and would tend to
reinforce lower price action. The close above the 9-day moving average is a
positive short-term indicator for trend. The gap lower price action on the day
session chart is a bearish indicator for trend. The close below the 2nd swing
support number puts the market on the defensive. The next downside target is
411.3. The next area of resistance is around 417.7 and 419.7, while 1st support
hits today at 413.5 and below there at 411.3.
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COPPER MARKET RECAP
10/4/2004
December Copper finished down 0.70 at 139.70, 0.25 off the
high and 1.60 up from the low.
The copper market posted another wide range day
but did manage to reject some significant early weakness. However, the weak
early action really seemed to discourage buyers and it almost seemed like the
labor threat in Chile was being completely discounted. The massive single day
increase in LME stocks undermines sentiment and will be a focal point for the
rest of the week, especially since the Chinese are on an extended holiday. With
the US factory orders report contracting and durable goods on Tuesday also
expected to be weak the macro economic condition would weigh on copper prices.
However, the sharp rise in equity market probably mitigated negative macro
economic influence of the scheduled reports.
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ENERGY MARKET RECAP
10/4/2004
December Crude Oil closed down 0.18 at 49.51. This was 0.36 up
from the low and 0.04 off the high.
December Heating Oil closed down 0.91 at 138.85. This was 0.55
up from the low and 0.25 off the high.
December Unleaded Gas finished down 1.28 at 131.97, 0.73 off
the high and 0.72 up from the low.
December Natural Gas finished up 0.05 at 7.63, 0.05 off the
high and 0.15 up from the low.
December Propane closed down 0.01 at 0.83. This was equal to
the low and equal to the high.
Energy prices opened weak and seemed to be poised
for a more aggressive liquidation but the market really seemed to be fighting
against a significant washout. Even with the former Saudi Oil Minister
suggesting that $50 oil prices was a fleeting phenomenon the energy complex was
totally ready to pressure prices in the absence of fresh supply threats. We
still have to think that energy prices will resist significant downside follow
through until there is evidence that the recent pattern of inventory declines
will be reversed. Possible supporting prices are suggestions from the former
Saudi Oil Minister that it could take another full year before the Saudi’s could
manage to reach 12 million barrels per day of daily output.
Technical Outlook
CRUDE OIL (DEC) 10/05/2004: Momentum studies are
trending higher but have entered overbought levels. The market’s close above the
9-day moving average suggests the short-term trend remains positive. It is a
mildly bullish indicator that the market closed over the pivot swing number. The
near-term upside objective is at 49.83. The 9-day RSI over 70 indicates the
market is approaching overbought levels. The next area of resistance is around
49.71 and 49.83, while 1st support hits today at 49.31 and below there at 49.03.
UNLEADED (DEC) 10/05/2004: Momentum studies are
trending higher but have entered overbought levels. The market’s close above the
9-day moving average suggests the short-term trend remains positive. The
market’s close below the pivot swing number is a mildly negative setup. The
near-term upside target is at 133.42. The next area of resistance is around
132.69 and 133.42, while 1st support hits today at 131.25 and below there at
130.53.
HEATING OIL (DEC) 10/05/2004: Momentum studies
are trending higher but have entered overbought levels. The market’s short-term
trend is positive on the close above the 9-day moving average. The market’s
close below the pivot swing number is a mildly negative setup. The near-term
upside target is at 139.57. With a reading over 70, the 9-day RSI is approaching
overbought levels. The next area of resistance is around 139.25 and 139.57,
while 1st support hits today at 138.45 and below there at 137.98.
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CORN MARKET RECAP
10/4/2004
December Corn finished down 3 1/4 at 202 3/4, 1 3/4 off the
high and 1/4 up from the low. March Corn closed down 3 1/4 at 213 3/4. This was
1/2 up from the low and 1 3/4 off the high.
The market found early selling pressures from
ideas that harvest pressures will intensify over the near-term and from
continued talk of higher than expected yields for a bulk of the Midwest which
might more than offset any damage done this week from a freeze in the northern
cornbelt. Traders look for harvest progress to come in near 25% complete in
tonight’s weekly crop progress report which would be up from 16% last week.
Weekly export inspections came in at 36.76 million bushels as compared with
33-43 million expected and 40.9 million bushels necessary each week to reach the
USDA projection for the season. Shipments have reached 6.8% of the USDA forecast
for the season as compared with 10% on average for this time of the year. The
move to a new contract low negates the weekly reversal from last week and leaves
the market in a bear trend. The close near the lows of the day and well below
the opening is also considered a short=-term bearish technical development. Next
support for December corn comes in at 202 1/4 and 198 3/4 with near-term
resistance at 205 1/2 and 207 1/2.
Technical Outlook
CORN (DEC) 10/05/2004: The market broke to a new
contract low. A bearish signal was triggered on a crossover down in the daily
stochastics. Daily stochastics are trending lower but have declined into
oversold territory. The market’s close below the 9-day moving average is an
indication the short-term trend remains negative. The gap down on the day
session chart is bearish with more selling pressure possible today. The
defensive setup, with the close under the 2nd swing support, could cause some
early weakness. The next downside target is now at 201 1/4. With a reading under
30, the 9-day RSI is approaching oversold levels. The next area of resistance is
around 203 3/4 and 205, while 1st support hits today at 201 3/4 and below there
at 201 1/4.
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SOY COMPLEX RECAP
10/4/2004
November Soybeans finished down 9 1/4 at 525 1/4,
2 3/4 off the high and 3 1/4 up from the low. January Soybeans closed down 9 at
533. This was 3 3/4 up from the low and 2 off the high.
December Soymeal closed down 2.3 at 159.4. This
was 0.3 up from the low and 0.9 off the high.
December Soybean Oil finished down 0.09 at 20.81,
0.07 off the high and 0.43 up from the low.
The outlook for active harvest selling pressures
for the week ahead helped to offset frost damage fears which triggered
aggressive speculative selling early in the session. The sell-off drove deferred
futures into new contract lows. November soybeans managed to take last weeks
lows which negates the weekly reversal from last week and could keep speculators
in a selling mode. Traders look for harvest progress to come in near 40-45%
complete in tonight’s weekly crop progress report which would be up from 18%
last week. The weekend Commitment-of-Traders report with options showed a record
net short position of the speculator at near 47,000 contracts which leaves the
market in an oversold condition. South Korea is tendering for 52,500 tons of US
soybeans. Weekly export inspections came in at 19.1 million bushels as compared
with 7-12 million expected and 19.9 million bushels necessary each week to reach
the USDA projection for the season. China was noted taking 5.934 million bushels
of the total. Meal deliveries against the October contract were at 52 contracts
this morning and there were still no oil deliveries. Resistance for November
soybeans comes in at 529 1/4 and 531 1/4 with 522 and 514 1/2 as next support.
Technical Outlook
BEANS (NOV) 10/05/2004: Daily stochastics are
showing positive momentum from oversold levels, which should reinforce a move
higher if near-term resistance is taken out. The close below the 9-day moving
average is a negative short-term indicator for trend. The market’s close below
the 1st swing support number suggests a moderately negative setup for today. The
next upside target is 531. The next area of resistance is around 528 1/4 and
531, while 1st support hits today at 522 1/4 and below there at 519 1/4.
MEAL (DEC) 10/05/2004: The daily stochastics gave
a bearish indicator with a crossover down. Momentum studies are still bearish
but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it
occurs. The market’s close below the 9-day moving average is an indication the
short-term trend remains negative. The market’s close below the 1st swing
support number suggests a moderately negative setup for today. The next downside
objective is 158.4. The next area of resistance is around 160.0 and 160.7, while
1st support hits today at 158.8 and below there at 158.4.
BEANOIL (DEC) 10/05/2004: Rising from oversold
levels, daily momentum studies would support higher prices, especially on a
close above resistance. A negative signal for trend short-term was given on a
close under the 9-bar moving average. The market tilt is slightly negative with
the close under the pivot. The next upside target is 21.22. The 9-day RSI under
30 indicates the market is approaching oversold levels. The next area of
resistance is around 21.06 and 21.22, while 1st support hits today at 20.56 and
below there at 20.22.
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WHEAT MARKET RECAP
10/4/2004
December Wheat finished down 1 1/4 at 302 1/2, 2 off the high
and 2 1/2 up from the low. March Wheat closed down 1 1/4 at 314 3/4. This was 2
1/2 up from the low and 1 1/4 off the high.
While oversold and called to open higher on the
session, the weakness in the other grains and a lack of demand news helped to
trigger the early weakness. The move under Friday’s lows, however, was met with
a lack of new selling interest from speculators and the market bounced back
toward the opening. Egypt bought 60,000 tons of wheat from Argentina over the
weekend in an optional origin tender which was seen as a slightly bearish
development. In addition, there was talk that the French sold 900,000 tons of
wheat to China which would be announced soon and helped add to the bearish
demand tone for US exporters. Weekly export inspections came in at 29.26 million
bushels as compared with 22-30 million expected and 15.94 million bushels
necessary each week to reach the USDA projection for the season. Shipments have
reached 41.5% of the USDA forecast for the season as compared with 36.7% on
average for this time of the year. Good rains reported in the US plains and in
key Australia growing regions in the past week is seen as bearish supply news.
Ideas that futures need to move to a lower price level to attract additional new
export news has kept the psychology bearish. Resistance for December wheat comes
in at 307 3/4 and 310 1/4 with 300 and 296 1/2 as next support points.
Technical Outlook
WHEAT (DEC) 10/05/2004: The sell-off took the
market to a new contract low. Daily stochastics declining into oversold
territory suggest the selling may be drying up soon. The market’s close below
the 9-day moving average is an indication the short-term trend remains negative.
It is a slightly negative indicator that the close was lower than the pivot
swing number. The next downside target is now at 298. The market is approaching
oversold levels on an RSI reading under 30. The next area of resistance is
around 304 3/4 and 306 3/4, while 1st support hits today at 300 1/4 and below
there at 298.
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LIVE CATTLE RECAP
10/4/2004
December Live Cattle closed unchanged at 88.27. This was 0.25
up from the low and 0.30 off the high.
November Feeder Cattle finished up 0.82 at 111.02, 0.45 off
the high and 0.67 up from the low.
December cattle closed unchanged on the session
after a two-sided choppy trading day. Weakness in the pork complex helped to
pressure the market after the early rally attempt to the highest level since
Se4ptember 22nd failed. Slaughter came in at only 117,000 head as compared with
trade expectations at 120,000-126,000 head. Boxed-beef cutout values (600-750
choice) were down $.17 on the day at mid-session to $134.69 as compared with
$137.65 last week at this time. The lower beef price combined with higher cash
markets paid last week has pushed packer margins even deeper into the red which
might help explain the low slaughter. The premium of futures to the cash market
is seen as a limiting factor and helps to give producers an incentive to feed
cattle to a higher weight.
Technical Outlook
CATTLE (DEC) 10/05/2004: Momentum studies are
rising from mid-range, which could accelerate a move higher if resistance levels
are penetrated. The market’s close above the 9-day moving average suggests the
short-term trend remains positive. The market has a slightly positive tilt with
the close over the swing pivot. The near-term upside target is at 88.820. The
next area of resistance is around 88.550 and 88.820, while 1st support hits
today at 88.020 and below there at 87.750.
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LEAN HOGS RECAP
10/4/2004
December Lean Hogs closed down 1.92 at 66.75. This was 0.07 up
from the low and 2.50 off the high.
February Pork Bellies finished up 0.22 at 97.17, 1.32 off the
high and 1.07 up from the low.
December hogs opened slightly lower and managed
to move above Friday’s highs into mid-session before a late collapse drove the
market down to the lowest level since mid-September into the close. A weak cash
market contributed to the selling and the selling intensified on the move under
Fridays lows and then additional selling emerged on the move under Thursday’s,
Wednesday’s and Tuesday’s lows. The CME 2-Day Lean index for the period ending
September 30th came in at 80.19 which were down $.36 from the previous session.
Slaughter came in at 391,000 head as compared with trade expectations at
390,000-400,000 head.
Technical Outlook
HOGS (DEC) 10/05/2004: Momentum studies trending
lower at mid-range should accelerate a move lower if support levels are taken
out. The close below the 9-day moving average is a negative short-term indicator
for trend. The outside day down and close below the previous day’s low is a
negative signal. There could be some early pressure today given the market’s
negative setup with the close below the 2nd swing support. The next downside
objective is 64.800. The next area of resistance is around 68.020 and 69.920,
while 1st support hits today at 65.470 and below there at 64.800.
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COCOA MARKET RECAP
10/4/2004
December Cocoa finished down 26 at 1424, 35 off the high and 2
up from the low.
Cocoa prices knifed lower as the commercial trade
seemed to back away from the market and the specs seemed content to increase
their short position. We doubt that a forecast from the Economists Intelligence
Unit (that called for a general decline in soft commodity prices in 2005)
undermined cocoa but with the December contract failing to hold chart support it
is not surprising that cocoa slid aggressively. A sharply higher US Dollar
probably gave the cocoa market an additional push down, as US cocoa prices were
increased rather sharply Monday due to the rise in the Dollar. With the Press
reporting fund selling Monday it would not be surprising to see additional small
spec selling enter the market in the days ahead.
Technical Outlook
COCOA (DEC) 10/05/2004: The moving average
crossover down (9 below 18) indicates a possible developing short-term
downtrend. Daily stochastics are trending lower but have declined into oversold
territory. The close below the 9-day moving average is a negative short-term
indicator for trend. There could be some early pressure today given the market’s
negative setup with the close below the 2nd swing support. The next downside
objective is 1396. The market is approaching oversold levels on an RSI reading
under 30. The next area of resistance is around 1442 and 1469, while 1st support
hits today at 1406 and below there at 1396.
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COFFEE MARKET RECAP
10/4/2004
December Coffee closed down 3.95 at 76.20. This was 0.55 up
from the low and 2.80 off the high.
A big range down extension Monday would seem to
leave the bear camp in firm control over prices. Certainly it isn’t surprising
to see both the small specs and funds turn sellers in coffee especially after
the market failed at a series of technical chart support levels on the charts.
However, considering the talk that some fund players might have to shift trading
interest away from sugar because their position is becoming too big of a
percentage of open interest could mean that markets like coffee and cocoa will
see an influx of speculative interest. About the only element discouraging
further downside action is a minor threat of dryness in some flowering regions
of Brazil.
Technical Outlook
COFFEE (DEC) 10/05/2004: Negative momentum
studies in the neutral zone will tend to reinforce lower price action. The
market’s short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day
moving average. The gap down on the day session chart is bearish with more
selling pressure possible today. The close below the 2nd swing support number
puts the market on the defensive. The next downside objective is now at 73.45.
The next area of resistance is around 77.85 and 80.10, while 1st support hits
today at 74.55 and below there at 73.45.
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SUGAR MARKET RECAP
10/4/2004
March Sugar closed up 0.03 at 8.93. This was 0.10 up from the
low and 0.05 off the high.
The sugar market managed to probe below critical
support and with the Press hinting at a fund rotation away from sugar (because
of open interest constraints) it would seem like long liquidation will become a
constant threat. Countervailing the negative chart tilt in sugar are suggestions
that Russian sugar imports might rise by 11% in the month of September.
Declining trading volumes would also seem to suggest that spec longs are
becoming a little less enamored with the bull case but with the net spec and
fund long in cotton declining to less than 20,000 contracts the market might not
be as vulnerable as many would expect under the circumstances.
Technical Outlook
SUGAR (MAR) 10/05/2004: Studies are showing
positive momentum but are now in overbought territory, so some caution is
warranted. The market’s close above the 9-day moving average suggests the
short-term trend remains positive. The upside closing price reversal on the
daily chart is somewhat bullish. It is a slightly negative indicator that the
close was lower than the pivot swing number. The near-term upside target is at
9.06. The next area of resistance is around 9.00 and 9.06, while 1st support
hits today at 8.86 and below there at 8.77.
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COTTON MARKET RECAP
10/4/2004
October Cotton finished up 1.25 at 49.25, 0.25 off the high
and 0.05 up from the low.
The cotton market managed a slight hook up but
the overall action wasn’t that impressive considering that the market is still
digesting what appeared to be extensive rain and flood damage off the string of
hurricanes. While many traders doubt that the damage off the hurricane is set to
change the decidedly bearish backdrop of the cotton market the threat of damage
should discourage aggressive selling by the market. In fact, expectations of a
world record production seem to be on track and with recent forecasts calling
for a quieter second half of the tropical storm season we can understand the
market inability to stay firm off the recent threat against southeastern US
production.
Technical Outlook
COTTON (DEC) 10/05/2004: Momentum studies are
still bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal
action if it occurs. A negative signal for trend short-term was given on a close
under the 9-bar moving average. The close over the pivot swing is a somewhat
positive setup. The next downside objective is 46.26. The next area of
resistance is around 47.80 and 48.15, while 1st support hits today at 46.86 and
below there at 46.26.