The Seas Remain Angry
“The seas
were angry my friend. Like an old man returning soup at a deli.”
—One of my favorite
“Seinfeld” lines uttered by George Costanza.
Yes, the seas do remain angry.
I must admit. Every day I keep thinking that maybe, just
maybe…the markets will rally
in earnest…but then I wake up. But really, my sentiment indicators
are getting better and better for a possible rally.
- PUT/CALLS hanging around 1.0.
- Higher readings of the VIX and VXN.
- Bullish advisors now down to 40.8% and bears up to
35.7%. - Bad news…bad news…bad news.
Only one problem…sentiment is a secondary indicator, and
sentiment is a lagging
indicator. Price and volume action always take precedent. Bounces will
happen, in fact, probably very soon, could even be today. Until I see
a better technical picture, that is all they
are…bounces. Therefore, my stance
stays the same.
TECHS are a horror
show. Every rally continues to be hit with a bigger bout of
selling. Here is some of the latest comedy.
ORACLE
(
ORCL |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)
announces better-than-expected numbers. The stock ramps up over 15% in
the aftermarket as the lemmings of 1999-2000
jump on anything. Well, ORACLE,
in their infinite wisdom, decide to wait an hour to tell everyone they
were going to miss their next quarter, inflicting more pain on the
investing public. Within seconds, the stock
drops 10%.
NOKIA. How many times
is this company going to tell the public that their numbers
are going to be a certain number, only to disappoint weeks later? They
have done it twice in the last three weeks and
more than five times in the last
year.
ADVANCED MICRO figures
out that they were going to miss revenue projections by
a measly 200 million buckos…and it takes 10 weeks into a 12-week quarter
to figure it out.
I could go on and on, but is it any wonder why TECH can’t
get off the floor?
Stay out of TECH. The monthly five-year chart of the Nasdaq
and Nasdaq 100 looks like the
Eiffel Tower. A break below September lows and see you in a few years.
All other major indices remain below their respective
200-day averages. This is a
great sign to go slow. Favored small and mid-cap indices are sitting
right at their 200…and if they
break…things only get worse.
I wish I had better things to say…but I can’t. It
remains that tough. Judging by
your e-mails, I think you are getting a good feel that it is better
to listen to the market than to listen to
people’s opinions.
If you must be long, there are a few areas that continue
to do well. But I tell you them
with a big disclaimer. JUST BECAUSE THEY ARE ACTING WELL
TODAY DOES
NOT MEAN THEY WILL BE ACTING WELL NEXT WEEK.
There continues to be constructive action in HOSPITALS,
HMOs, HOMEBUILDERS,
REITs…and you
can now add TRUCKERS to the positive list.
Lastly, you must — you must — take Dave
Landry’s report from last night…print it
out and keep. It is a classic piece of American literature. I had to take
a double-take on it.