The US Dollar has reached key levels

EUR/USD

Resistance: 1.2715, 1.2745, 1.2785, 1.2805 and 1.2825

Support: 1.2665 and 1.2640

This pair continues to sit in daily support area after having broken down
past its previous consolidation area. The next move down to initial lows
at 1.2660 and then 1.2650 will show the strength of this new down direction.
The only chart that has clarity for me now is the one hour shown below as
the rest look pretty choppy. Notice that the 89ema has provided resistance
each time it has moved up. The daily volatility remains very low at 67 so
small reversal or trend direction (in that down is possibly the new direction)
trades can be placed with less than the normal amount in my opinion as the
probabilities at this point are not as good as they could be.


GBP/USD

Resistance: 1.8802, 1.8835, 1.8868 and 1.8900

Support: 1.8670 and 1.8545

Since hitting support on the daily chart this currency pair has been bouncing
up and seems likely to continue until either the 89 ema or one of the Fibonacci retracement
points shown on the 4 hour chart below is tested. 1.8835 looks like a good
near-term long goal though right now during a light volume time the short-term
charts are showing a possibility of further movement back down which could
be used to get a good entry for going long.


The 15 minute chart below shows the price weakness mentioned above. Note
the small range candles (it is a light volume time) and the MACD divergence.
A move back to previous highs (now support) or the 89 ema
look likely in the very short term.


USD/JPY

Resistance: previous highs at 119.00 and 119.22

Support: 117.15, 116.95, 116.55 and 116.12

As you can see from the daily chart below we have a divergence between the
new price highs and the MACD as well as a failure candle so far for today.
Further movement down seems likely for the next few sessions.


Since the volatility on this pair remains low (64) trading off short term
extremes is a viable trading strategy. The 5 min chart below shows how you
can use Bollinger Bands and an RSI to trade price extremes. One of the nice
things about this pair is that it can move in the evening for those of us
who find that is the time we have available and many brokers offer a two pip
spread for this pair making it attractive for this kind of trade.


General Remarks

It is interesting to me and always a cause of some comment how my trading
style is not something that my husband is comfortable with and while sometimes
I find myself trading along with him, many times I will not be comfortable
at all with a trade he has just put on and will not do it. He is a good trader
and his trading style works for him. I bring this up because while a good
trading mentor and suggestions can shorten the trading learning curve, in
the end you do have to find your own trading niche, kind of like an artist
finding their own personal style after being taught the basics. This is
where testing with a forex demo and then trading live with minis first is vital
to saving your trading capital while learning. You need to know that this
can be a long process and it takes patience. There are no shortcuts but many
of us have found the journey worthwhile. I hope the ideas presented in this
forex trading commentary help you along that road.