These 2 Currencies Were The Big Gainers Today

Technical Outlook

#BONDS (JUN) 3/31/2004: The market tilt is slightly
negative with the close under the pivot. Near-term resistance for bonds is at
113.24 and then again at 114.04, while swing support hits at 113.06 and below
there at 112.32. A negative signal for trend short-term was given on a close
under the 9-bar moving average. Momentum studies trending lower at mid-range
could accelerate a price break if support levels are broken. The next downside
objective is 112.32.

T-NOTES(JUN) Momentum studies trending lower at
mid-range should accelerate a move lower if support levels are taken out. The
next downside objective is now at 114.19. The market’s close below the pivot
swing number is a mildly negative setup. The major trend is down with the cross
over back below the 40-day moving average. Near-term resistance for the T-Notes
is at 115.02 and then again at 115.10, while swing support hits at 114.23 and
below there at 114.19. The downside crossover (9 below 18) of the moving
averages suggests a developing short-term downtrend.

 

STOCK INDICES RECAP

3/30/2004

The stock market took some profits early in the
session Tuesday and with crude oil prices rising and gold on the rise it is
clear that some investors were concerned about big picture issues. Certainly the
stock market was disappointed by the decline in consumer confidence, but the
weaker readings were certainly expected by the market prior to their release,
Tuesday morning. We also think that many traders took the comments from the Fed
Tuesday morning negatively, as the Fed seemed to be moving to cushion the blow
of a poor number Friday morning.

Technical Outlook

#S&P500 (JUN) 3/31/2004: The close over the pivot
swing is a somewhat positive setup. Underlying support comes in at 1121.75 and
1115.73, with overhead resistance at 1130.25 and 1132.73. The close above the
9-day moving average is a positive short-term indicator for trend. Momentum
studies are rising from mid-range which could accelerate a move higher if
resistance levels are penetrated. The near-term upside objective is at
1132.73.

S&P E-Mini (JUN): Positive momentum studies in
the neutral zone will tend to reinforce higher price action. The next upside
target is 1133.31. With the close higher than the pivot swing number, the market
is in a slightly bullish posture. Near-term resistance for the S&P Mini is
at 1130.63 and then again at 1133.31, while swing support hits at 1121.38 and
below there at 1114.81. The market’s close above the 9-day moving average
suggests the short-term trend remains positive.

NASDAQ (JUN) A positive signal for trend short-term
was given on a close over the 9-bar moving average. The market has a slightly
positive tilt with the close over the swing pivot. The market should run into
resistance at 1456.50 and above there at 1460.75 with support at 1439.50 and
1426.75. Stochastics are at mid-range, but trending higher which should
reinforce a move higher if resistance levels are taken out. The next upside
objective is 1460.75.

MINI DOW (MAR) The close above the 9-day moving
average is a positive short-term indicator for trend. The market should run into
resistance at 10400 and above there at 10427 with support at 10312 and 10251.
Momentum studies are rising from mid-range which could accelerate a move higher
if resistance levels are penetrated. The near-term upside target is at 10427.
The close over the pivot swing is a somewhat positive setup.

 

CURRENCY MARKET RECAP

3/30/2004

The Euro and the Pound were the big gainers in the
action Tuesday as US economic numbers disappointed and Fed comments during the
session we not that complimentary of the US economic situation. Therefore, money
continued to flow away from the US Dollar. It would seem that the US economy is
being held to a higher standard because economic numbers from other regions have
been much softer than those seen in the US but the trade is apparently short
term bearish on the Dollar. In short, the focus on confidence readings served to
press the Dollar down toward chart support of 88.00 in the June contract.

Technical Outlook

#CURRENCIES 3/31/2004: YEN (JUN): A positive signal
for trend short-term was given on a close over the 9-bar moving average. The
market tilt is slightly negative with the close under the pivot. Swing
resistance is targeted at 95.02 and above there at 95.11, with the yen finding
support around 94.79 and below there at 94.65. Rising stochastics at overbought
levels warrant some caution for bulls. The next upside objective is 95.11. The
market is approaching overbought levels with an RSI over 70.

EURO (JUN): Momentum studies are still bearish, but
are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it
occurs. The next downside target is now at 1.2103. The defensive setup, with the
close under the 2nd swing support, could cause some early weakness. Swing
support for the Euro comes in at 1.2103, with overhead resistance at 1.2211. The
close below the 9-day moving average is a negative short-term indicator for
trend. The close below the 40-day moving average is an indication the
longer-term trend is down. More selling pressure is likely given yesterday’s gap
lower price action on the day session chart.

 

PRECIOUS METALS RECAP

3/30/2004

Both gold and silver markets showed very impressive
action Tuesday and it would appear that investment interest is running pretty
strong for the precious metals. It is not clear if some of the buyers are moving
into gold and silver because they sense an inflationary potential ahead but that
would not be surprising with the energy complex showing significant strength and
the grain markets encountering an extremely critical report on Wednesday
morning. It also appeared as if recent strength in the US Dollar was being
totally reversed and that gave the gold bulls an additional reason to jump into
the market.

Technical Outlook

#P-METALS 3/31/2004: SILVER (MAY): The market has a
bullish tilt coming into today’s trade with the close above the 2nd swing
resistance. Initial support for silver is at 770.5 and below there at 761.0 with
resistance likely at 776.4 and 784.5. A positive signal for trend short-term was
given on a close over the 9-bar moving average. A bullish signal was given with
an upside crossover of the daily stochastics. The next upside objective is
776.4. The market is approaching overbought levels with an RSI over
70.

GOLD (JUN): Support for gold today comes in near
419.48, while resistance is pegged at 425.28. The crossover up in the daily
stochastics is a bullish signal. The near-term upside target is at 425.28.
Short-term indicators suggest buying pullbacks today. Market positioning is
positive with the close over the 1st swing resistance. The close above the 9-day
moving average is a positive short-term indicator for trend.

 

COPPER MARKET RECAP

3/30/2004

The copper market finished the day moderately lower
after attempting to move moderately higher on the session. Apparently the copper
market was discouraged by weak US economic numbers and by the choppy action in
the US equity market. However, the confidence numbers were expected to be much
weaker and therefore the copper market appeared to be looking for an excuse to
take profits. The fact that the precious metals were up so aggressively might
have resulted in some industrial metals bulls migrating away from copper. Also
during the session there were reports that Chilean copper production for
February was on the rise and the trade is fearful that a pattern of higher
supply is developing.

 

ENERGY MARKET RECAP

3/30/2004

The energy complex continued to strengthen as the
trade bought into the conviction that OPEC was going to follow through with the
upcoming cut. The market failed to react to the supportive dialogue Monday
because OPEC reiterated the idea that a massive supply overhang might be seen in
the coming three months in the US. Also dampening sentiment were suggestions
that OPEC compliance would slide under the upcoming cut. However, despite a
number of potentially negative issues the energy complex still factored in a
cut! OPEC indicated that they would be watching US rebuilding patterns closely
and that suggests a speculative concern for the Wednesday US inventory report.

Technical Outlook

#ENERGIES 3/31/2004: CRUDE OIL (MAY): Follow through
buying looks likely if the market can hold yesterday’s gap on the day session
chart. There could be more upside follow through since the market closed above
the 2nd swing resistance. Support for crude is keyed on 35.95 and below there at
35.60, with resistance pegged at 36.55 and 36.80. The close below the 9-day
moving average is a negative short-term indicator for trend. Stochastics
trending lower at midrange will tend to reinforce a move lower especially if
support levels are taken out. The next downside target is now at
35.60.

UNLEADED GAS (MAY): Stochastics turning bearish at
overbought levels will tend to support lower prices if support levels are
broken. The next downside objective is 110.73. The market has a bullish tilt
coming into today’s trade with the close above the 2nd swing resistance.
Resistance today is at 118.13, while support should be found around 110.73. A
positive signal for trend short-term was given on a close over the 9-bar moving
average.

HEATING OIL (MAY): There could be more upside follow
through since the market closed above the 2nd swing resistance. Heating oil
should encounter support around 88.20, with resistance is at 92.00. The close
below the 9-day moving average is a negative short-term indicator for trend. The
cross over and close above the 40-day moving average is an indication the
longer-term trend is up. Stochastics trending lower at midrange will tend to
reinforce a move lower especially if support levels are taken out. The next
downside target is now at 88.20. Follow through buying looks likely if the
market can hold yesterday’s gap on the day session chart.

 

CORN MARKET RECAP

3/30/2004

The market surged higher on fund buying and
speculative positioning ahead of key USDA reports for release before the opening
on Wednesday. While soybeans attempted to sell-off late, buyers were active in
corn into the close. The USDA announced a sale of 165,000 tons of US corn to
unknown destination. Taiwan is tendering for 23,000 tons of US corn and South
Korea is tendering for 52,500 tons of optional origin corn. Traders are looking
for March 1st stocks to come in near 5.275 billion bushels as compared with
5.132 billion bushels last year at this time. For the planting intentions
report, traders are looking for planted acreage for corn at 80.29 million acres
(range 79.5-81.0) as compared with 78.736 million acres planted last year.

Technical Outlook

#CORN (MAY) 3/31/2004: Stochastics trending lower at
midrange will tend to reinforce a move lower especially if support levels are
taken out. The next downside target is now at 304 1/4. There could be more
upside follow through since the market closed above the 2nd swing resistance.
Market resistance comes in at 317 1/4 today, with support at 304 1/4. The close
above the 9-day moving average is a positive short-term indicator for
trend.

 

SOY COMPLEX RECAP

3/30/2004

The market pushed higher along with the other grains
finding follow-through technical buying support after yesterday’s strong close
and some light short-covering ahead of the key USDA reports for release in the
morning. Reports of lower production from Argentina due to recent dry weather
was offset by expectations for some rains in the drier areas of Brazil and
Argentina this week which might help late planted soybeans or double-cropped
acreage. Taiwan is tendering for 40,000-60,000 tons of soybeans from Brazil or
the US. The average trade estimate for the March 1st stocks report is at 867
million bushels (range 850-904) as compared with 1.201 billion bushels last year
at this time. For the planted acreage report, traders are looking for soybean
planting intentions at 74.508 million acres (range 71.822-76.4) as compared with
73.404 million acres planted last year. The wide range of estimates in planted
acreage report has traders a bit nervous about holding a significant net long
position.

Technical Outlook

#SOYBEANS (MAY) 03/31/04 The market has a slightly
positive tilt with the close over the swing pivot. The next area of resistance
is around 1022 and 1029, while 1st support hits today at 1010 and below there at
1005. A negative signal for trend short-term was given on a close under the
9-bar moving average. Stochastics turning bearish at overbought levels will tend
to support lower prices if support levels are broken. The next downside
objective is 1005.

MEAL (MAY): Momentum studies trending lower from
overbought levels is a bearish indicator and would tend to reinforce lower price
action. The next downside target is now at 313.3. First resistance comes in at
317.9, with support at 315.1. The close below the 9-day moving average is a
negative short-term indicator for trend. The close over the pivot swing is a
somewhat positive setup.

BEAN OIL (MAY): A negative signal for trend
short-term was given on a close under the 9-bar moving average. Momentum studies
trending lower at mid-range could accelerate a price break if support levels are
broken. The next downside objective is 32.24. It is a slightly negative
indicator that the close was lower than the pivot swing number. The market could
take on a defensive posture with the daily closing price reversal down. Daily
swing resistance is found at 33.67 and above there at 34.48. Support should be
encountered at 32.55 and 32.24.

 

WHEAT MARKET RECAP

3/30/2004

Positioning ahead of the key planted acreage and
grain stocks reports in the morning kept volume high and the market found
support from a surprise decline in Kansas crop ratings, signs of increase in
shipments of wheat to China, increased export interest and strength in the other
grains. The close near the highs for the July contract is supportive and
indicates expectations for tighter supplies ahead. Traders are looking for all
wheat planted acreage to come in near 59.854 million acres as compared with 61.7
million planted last year. March 1st wheat stocks are expected near 1.037
billion bushels as compared with 907 million last year. Taiwan is tendering for
43,000 and South Korea is tendering for 18,500 tons. Talk that the dry areas of
western Kansas should remain dry in the days ahead helped provide support. The
southern plains are expected to be wet this weekend with talk of 1-2 inches.

Technical Outlook

#WHEAT (MAY) 3/31/2004: The market has a bullish tilt
coming into today’s trade with the close above the 2nd swing resistance. Expect
near-term support around 410 2/4 and below there at 404, with resistance levels
at 420 and 423. A positive signal for trend short-term was given on a close over
the 9-bar moving average. Rising stochastics at overbought levels warrant some
caution for bulls. The next upside objective is 423.

 

LIVE CATTLE RECAP

3/30/2004

The market drove sharply higher on the session with a
steady tone in the cash market and a stronger beef market helping to support.
With futures at a stiff discount to the cash market, all it took was talk of a
steady cash market to trigger aggressive short-covering in the April cattle.
Talk that the market-ready supply of cattle is a little tighter this week helped
fuel the rally early in the session. At mid-day, boxed-beef cut-out values for
choice 600-750 pound cuts were 69 cents higher to $138.86 as compared with
$141.72 last week at this time.

Technical Outlook

#CATTLE (JUN) 3/31/2004: A bullish signal was given
with an upside crossover of the daily stochastics. The next upside objective is
77.37. The market has a bullish tilt coming into today’s trade with the close
above the 2nd swing resistance. Support should be encountered at 75.35 and below
there at 74.17. Market resistance is at 76.95 and then again at 77.37. A
positive signal for trend short-term was given on a close over the 9-bar moving
average.

 

LEAN HOGS RECAP

3/30/2004

A late surge in bellies helped provide some support
to the hog market after choppy to mostly lower trade for much of the session.
The overbought condition of the market was seen as a short-term bearish factor
and a weaker cash market tone helped pressure the April futures early. Slower
demand helped pressure the cash markets with talk that most of the packer demand
for the week has been met. The 2-day Lean Index was down 22 cents to $68.24 as
compared with $68.13 one week ago. The weekly cold storage report, released
after the close, is expected to show a weekly out-movement of 200,000-600,000
pounds.

Technical Outlook

#HOGS (JUN) 3/31/2004: The close over the pivot swing
is a somewhat positive setup. Resistance levels comes in at 75.37 and 75.82
today, while support is around 73.92 and then 72.92. The market rallied to a new
contract high. The close above the 9-day moving average is a positive short-term
indicator for trend. Daily stochastics have risen into overbought territory
which will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The near-term upside
target is at 75.82. With a reading over 70, the 9-day RSI is approaching
overbought levels.

 

COCOA MARKET RECAP

3/30/2004

The cocoa market managed to post some delayed
reaction gains to recent political turmoil at the Ivory Coast and was also
helped higher by private forecasts of a slight increase in cocoa demand.
However, it is a little surprising that prices managed to gain on the demand
news as the private forecasts also called for 2003-2004 world output to reach
3.1 million tons. It would seem that the trade was mostly expecting production
to rise but had not been expecting to see demand rise and that might have left
the market in a bullish posture. Ivory Coast export declarations managed to
reach 952,298 tons as of March 24th and that would also seem to be a negative.

Technical Outlook

COCOA (MAY) 03/31/04 The market has a bullish tilt
coming into today’s trade with the close above the 2nd swing resistance. Cocoa
should run into resistance at 1513 and above there at 1523 with support at 1479
and 1455. Studies are showing positive momentum, but are now in overbought
territory so some caution is warranted. The next upside target is
1523.00.

 

COFFEE MARKET RECAP

3/30/2004

July coffee pushed moderately higher on the session
led by strength in London and talk of smaller crops in India and Colombia
(mid-crop) helping to support. Roaster buying has been a bit better recently and
the market is also lacking aggressive selling from the funds. Brazil exported
1.485 million bags for the March 1st to 26th time frame as compared with 1.397
million bags for the same period during February. Strength in other commodity
markets and in the CRB Index seemed to be the primary factor to support the
gains. Vietnam officials pegged the February exports at 107,000 tonnes which is
near record highs of 3 years ago and compared with 74,000 tons in January.
Traders believe the 2004/2005 Vietnam crop production will be near 12.5 million
bags (750,000 tonnes) as compared with 11.7 million bags last year and official
estimates of 11.5-12 million bags.

Technical Outlook

COFFEE (MAY) 3/31/04 The market setup is supportive
for early gains with the close over the 1st swing resistance. Momentum studies
are declining, but have fallen to oversold levels. The next downside objective
is now at 71.50. The Coffee contract should run into resistance at 74.10 and
above there at 74.50 with support at 72.6 and 71.50. The market’s short-term
trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day moving
average.

 

SUGAR MARKET RECAP

3/30/2004

May sugar jumped sharply on the session as talk of
improved cash sugar interest on the break helped support the trade house buying
and some light short-covering. Ideas that futures were a bit oversold after a
120 point, 3-day break last week helped support. South Africa production was
pegged at 2.41 million tonnes for the 2003/2004 season as compared with last
years record high production of 2.75 million. There were trade house forecasts
for a slight world production deficit for the 2003/2004 season and talk that the
deficits could continue for a few more years as a newly bullish twist. This talk
helped to offset the forecast for a record high center-south crop this week at
319.9 million tons as compared with last years record at 299.4 million tons.

Technical Outlook

#SUGAR (MAY) 3/31/2004: There could be more upside
follow through since the market closed above the 2nd swing resistance. Swing
resistance comes in at 6.50, with support found at 6.04. The close below the
9-day moving average is a negative short-term indicator for trend. The cross
over and close above the 40-day moving average is an indication the longer-term
trend is up. Momentum studies are still bearish, but are now at oversold levels
and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The next downside target
is now at 6.04.

 

COTTON MARKET RECAP

3/30/2004

Weakness in the stock market and some long
liquidation selling ahead of the key USDA report for release before the opening
helped to pressure cotton futures for much of the session. Ideas that the full
extent of the acres lost to soybeans will not show up for the report helped to
trigger some light selling. Cotton plantings are expected to come in near 13.5
million acres (range 12.5-13.98 as compared with the National Cotton Council
survey in January at 14.76 million acres and last years plantings at 13.48
million.

Technical Outlook

#COTTON (MAY) 3/31/2004: A negative signal for trend
short-term was given on a close under the 9-bar moving average. The market tilt
is slightly negative with the close under the pivot. Next resistance area comes
in at 65.50 and then again at 65.98, while support is targeted at 64.70 and
64.38. Stochastics are at mid-range, but trending higher which should reinforce
a move higher if resistance levels are taken out. The next upside objective is
65.98.