This Is The Big Gainer Against The Dollar
BOND MARKET RECAP
9/9/2004
September Bonds closed down 0-13 at 112-01. This
was 0-02 up from the low and 0-22 off the high.
September 10 Yr Treasury Notes finished down
0-055 at 113-080, 0-130 off the high and 0-015 up from the low.
After an early rally the Treasury market
showed moderately surprising weakness into mid session. We suspect that the
early economic information was offsetting but that the afternoon auction
activity prompted some hedging or simple profit taking off recent buy position.
In fact, one would have expected sharply higher energy prices to have given
Treasuries a little lift in the afternoon action but no specific lift was seen.
Expectations for coming economic reports don’t appear to present any surprises
and that could be why Treasuries have seen such a narrow trading range.
Technical Outlook
BONDS (DEC) 09/10/2004: Momentum studies trending
lower at mid-range could accelerate a price break if support levels are broken.
The close above the 9-day moving average is a positive short-term indicator for
trend. The daily closing price reversal down puts the market on the defensive.
The market’s close below the pivot swing number is a mildly negative setup. The
next downside target is now at 110-02. The next area of resistance is around
111-08 and 111-29, while 1st support hits today at 110-11 and below there at
110-02.
TNOTES (DEC) 09/10/2004: Momentum studies
trending lower at mid-range could accelerate a price break if support levels are
broken. The close above the 9-day moving average is a positive short-term
indicator for trend. The market could take on a defensive posture with the daily
closing price reversal down. The market has a slightly positive tilt with the
close over the swing pivot. The next downside target is now at 111-220. The next
area of resistance is around 112-120 and 112-235, while 1st support hits today
at 111-275 and below there at 111-220.
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STOCK INDICES RECAP
9/9/2004
September S&P finished down 0.9 at 1117.8, 3.7
off the high and 4.2 up from the low.
September S&P E-Mini closed down 0.75 at 1118.
This was 4.5 up from the low and 3.75 off the high.
September Dow closed down 47 at 10280. This was
10 up from the low and 55 off the high.
September Dow E-Mini finished down 46 at 10281,
54 off the high and 13 up from the low.
The stock market followed international markets
lower to open the session, drifted down to critical support into mid session and
then surprisingly managed to recover directly in the face of soaring energy
prices. It is possible that equity prices will be held down in the US in the
coming 24 hours off fears of damage from hurricane Ivan. Over the coming week
traders should expect volatility and daily trading volume to expand as we enter
the triple witching action and that could also combine with a major decision on
the direction of energy prices to really prompt some wide trading ranges.
Technical Outlook
S&P 500 (SEP) 09/10/2004: A crossover down in the
daily stochastics is a bearish signal. Momentum studies are trending lower from
high levels which should accelerate a move lower on a break below the 1st swing
support. The market’s short-term trend is positive on the close above the 9-day
moving average. The market tilt is slightly negative with the close under the
pivot. The next downside target is now at 1109.78. The next area of resistance
is around 1121.75 and 1125.57, while 1st support hits today at 1113.85 and below
there at 1109.78.
SP EMINI (SEP) 09/10/2004: A crossover down in
the daily stochastics is a bearish signal. Momentum studies trending lower from
overbought levels is a bearish indicator and would tend to reinforce lower price
action. The market’s close above the 9-day moving average suggests the
short-term trend remains positive. It is a slightly negative indicator that the
close was lower than the pivot swing number. The next downside target is
1109.57. The next area of resistance is around 1122.12 and 1126.06, while 1st
support hits today at 1113.88 and below there at 1109.57.
NASDAQ (SEP) 09/10/2004: Stochastics turning
bearish at overbought levels will tend to support lower prices if support levels
are broken. The market’s short-term trend is positive on the close above the
9-day moving average. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is
somewhat bullish. The close over the pivot swing is a somewhat positive setup.
The next downside objective is now at 1364.25. The next area of resistance is
around 1403.00 and 1412.25, while 1st support hits today at 1379.00 and below
there at 1364.25.
MINIDOW (SEP) 09/10/2004: A bearish signal was
triggered on a crossover down in the daily stochastics. Momentum studies
trending lower from overbought levels is a bearish indicator and would tend to
reinforce lower price action. A positive signal for trend short-term was given
on a close over the 9-bar moving average. The close below the 1st swing support
could weigh on the market. The next downside target is now at 10226. The next
area of resistance is around 10316 and 10359, while 1st support hits today at
10250 and below there at 10226.
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CURRENCY MARKET RECAP
9/9/2004
September US Dollar finished up 3 at 8883, 22 off
the high and 13 up from the low.
September Euro finished up 0.04 at 121.91, 0.1
off the high and 0.34 up from the low.
September Euro Dollar closed up 0.01 at 98.115.
This was 0.005 up from the low and 0.0025 off the high.
September Canadian Dollar closed up 0.15 at
77.68. This was 0.21 up from the low and 0.12 off the high.
September British Pound finished down 0.38 at
178.44, 0.16 off the high and 0.32 up from the low.
September Swiss closed down 0.22 at 79.15. This
was 0.17 up from the low and 0.08 off the high.
September Japanese Yen closed down 0.43 at 91.07.
This was 0.18 up from the low and 0.2 off the high.
The Dollar slid right down to critical chart
support but eventually managed to respect even numbers. Once again the big
gainer against the Dollar was the Canadian as the rest of the currencies might
have been undermined by a big run up in energy prices. Over the last several
weeks the Dollar has seen some support from soaring energy prices and with crude
oil rising by more than $1.50 a barrel at times during the session some money
was evidently seeking the safety of the US Dollar. Furthermore, with energy
prices’ rising sharply it wasn’t surprising that the Yen was one of the bigger
losers on the session.
Technical Outlook
YEN (DEC) 09/10/2004: Momentum studies trending
lower at mid-range should accelerate a move lower if support levels are taken
out. The market’s close below the 9-day moving average is an indication the
short-term trend remains negative. The market’s close below the 1st swing
support number suggests a moderately negative setup for today. The next downside
target is now at 91.12. The next area of resistance is around 91.69 and 91.87,
while 1st support hits today at 91.31 and below there at 91.12.
EURO (DEC) 09/10/2004: Momentum studies are
rising from mid-range, which could accelerate a move higher if resistance levels
are penetrated. A positive signal for trend short-term was given on a close over
the 9-bar moving average. With the close higher than the pivot swing number, the
market is in a slightly bullish posture. The near-term upside objective is at
122.24. The next area of resistance is around 122.06 and 122.24, while 1st
support hits today at 121.60 and below there at 121.31.
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PRECIOUS METALS RECAP
9/9/2004
December Gold closed down 1 at 400.4. This was
1.2 up from the low and 1.1 off the high.
December Silver finished down 0.024 at 6.188,
0.027 off the high and 0.073 up from the low.
October Platinum closed down 20.5 at 825.9. This
was 0.4 up from the low and 9.1 off the high.
The gold market forged an extremely tight range
Thursday but it did manage to put in a more impressive performance than either
silver or platinum. It would seem that an ultra tight US Dollar range also
limited gold, while slack economic readings and soaring energy prices seemed to
undermined silver and platinum. In other words, the market appeared to be making
an industrial distinct within the precious metals complex.
Technical Outlook
SILVER (DEC) 09/10/2004: Daily stochastics are
trending lower but have declined into oversold territory. A negative signal for
trend short-term was given on a close under the 9-bar moving average. The
market’s close below the pivot swing number is a mildly negative setup. The next
downside target is now at 607.7. Some caution in pressing the downside is
warranted with the RSI under 30. The next area of resistance is around 623.8 and
627.7, while 1st support hits today at 613.9 and below there at 607.7.
GOLD (DEC) 09/10/2004: Momentum studies are
declining, but have fallen to oversold levels. The market’s short-term trend is
negative as the close remains below the 9-day moving average. It is a slightly
negative indicator that the close was lower than the pivot swing number. The
next downside objective is now at 398.1. The next area of resistance is around
401.5 and 402.6, while 1st support hits today at 399.3 and below there at 398.1.
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COPPER MARKET RECAP
9/9/2004
December Copper finished up 0.75 at 126.40, 0.10
off the high and 1.70 up from the low.
The copper market started out unchanged, slid
lower in the early action but then managed to close higher. Talk about soaring
base metals demand in China seemed to support copper but the fact that labor
disputes in southern Peru are not impacting production is taking the bullish
legs out from under the market. Some in the trade were encouraged by suggestions
that the daily LME copper stocks declines were showing signs of expanding but we
think it is too soon to assume that has become a pattern.
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ENERGY MARKET RECAP
9/9/2004
October Crude Oil closed up 1.84 at 44.61. This
was 1.81 up from the low and 0.14 off the high.
October Heating Oil closed up 6.68 at 122.80.
This was 5.80 up from the low and 0.20 off the high.
October Unleaded Gas finished up 4.37 at 122.54,
0.66 off the high and 5.14 up from the low.
October Natural Gas finished up 0.03 at 4.66,
0.06 off the high and 0.07 up from the low.
October Propane closed up 0.01 at 0.78. This was
0.00 up from the low and equal to the high.
The energy complex saw the weekly inventory
reports as slightly bullish to mixed, as crude stock changes were offsetting
between the API at +602K & the DOE with a 1.4 ml barrel decline. On the other
hand, moderately large declines in gasoline stocks seemed to grab the focus of
the market and in a sense provided some light buying interest. On a bearish note
the IEA suggested that world inventories could be set to rise in the coming
months but that wasn’t seen as a dominating development. It is possible that the
trade is having trouble with the track of hurricane Ivan and that is causing
prices to waffle within a range. The fact that some Venezuelan supply flow was
impacted could also have given the market some support. The energy complex also
saw some support from concerns that the Mississippi river would be closed down
temporarily due to a Bridge accident.
Technical Outlook
CRUDE OIL (OCT) 09/10/2004: The cross over and
close above the 40-day moving average indicates the longer-term trend has turned
up. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication.
Momentum studies are rising from mid-range, which could accelerate a move higher
if resistance levels are penetrated. The close above the 9-day moving average is
a positive short-term indicator for trend. The market has a bullish tilt coming
into today’s trade with the close above the 2nd swing resistance. The next
upside objective is 46.14. The next area of resistance is around 45.58 and
46.14, while 1st support hits today at 43.64 and below there at 42.25.
UNLEADED (OCT) 09/10/2004: The cross over and
close above the 40-day moving average is an indication the longer-term trend has
turned positive. Stochastics are at mid-range but trending higher, which should
reinforce a move higher if resistance levels are taken out. The market’s
short-term trend is positive on the close above the 9-day moving average. The
market’s close above the 2nd swing resistance number is a bullish indication.
The next upside objective is 127.21. The next area of resistance is around
125.43 and 127.21, while 1st support hits today at 119.64 and below there at
115.62.
HEATING OIL (OCT) 09/10/2004: The cross over and
close above the 40-day moving average is an indication the longer-term trend has
turned positive. A bullish signal was given with an upside crossover of the
daily stochastics. Positive momentum studies in the neutral zone will tend to
reinforce higher price action. The market’s close above the 9-day moving average
suggests the short-term trend remains positive. There could be more upside
follow through since the market closed above the 2nd swing resistance. The next
upside target is 127.39. The next area of resistance is around 125.79 and
127.39, while 1st support hits today at 119.80 and below there at 115.40.
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CORN MARKET RECAP
9/9/2004
December Corn finished down 1/4 at 226 1/2,
3/4 off the high and 1/2 up from the low. March Corn closed down 1/4 at 235 1/4.
This was 3/4 up from the low and 3/4 off the high.
Traders expect a record crop but there are still
questions on whether the lower production expectations for the northern belt
will be offset, or more than offset by higher yield expectations for the
southern and central cornbelt. Positioning ahead of the USDA Crop Production and
Supply/Demand reports, for release before the opening on Friday, is expected to
be the dominating force of the market today. The average trade estimate for US
production came in at 10.853 billion bushels (range 10.774-11.041) as compared
with the August USDA estimate of 10.923 billion bushels. Last years production
came in at 10.114 billion bushels. For ending stocks the average trade estimate
is at 1.138 billion bushels (range 1.04-1.242) as compared with the August USDA
estimate of 1.132 billion bushels. The short-term weather forecast for above
normal temperatures and below normal rainfall into September 15th for the
Midwest looks ideal for increasing harvest and also for helping to bring the
crops in the northern cornbelt closer to maturity. There were 2 deliveries
against September corn this morning. Weekly export sales, released before the
opening, are expected to come in near 650,000-850,000 tons as compared with
584,100 tons last week. December corn support comes in at 226 1/2 and 225 with
resistance at 230 1/2 and 232 3/4.
Technical Outlook
CORN (DEC) 09/10/2004: Momentum studies are still
bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action
if it occurs. The market’s short-term trend is negative as the close remains
below the 9-day moving average. It is a slightly negative indicator that the
close was lower than the pivot swing number. The next downside target is now at
225 1/2. The next area of resistance is around 227 and 227 3/4, while 1st
support hits today at 226 and below there at 225 1/2.
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SOY COMPLEX RECAP
9/9/2004
November Soybeans finished down 1 1/2 at 582, 5
1/2 off the high and 2 1/2 up from the low. January Soybeans closed down 1 1/2
at 589. This was 2 1/2 up from the low and 5 off the high.
December Soymeal closed down 0.4 at 170.3. This
was 0.8 up from the low and 2.1 off the high.
December Soybean Oil finished up 0.07 at 23.69,
0.06 off the high and 0.21 up from the low.
Talk of an oversold condition after a 75 cent
break off of last Wednesday’s highs helped to trigger some light speculative
buying early in the session. Talk of weak demand from China and increased fears
of spreading bird flu in Asia with reports of another human death in Thailand
overnight helped to limit the buying. Positioning ahead of the USDA Crop
Production and Supply/Demand reports, for release before the opening on Friday,
is expected to be the dominating force of the market over the near-term. The
average trade estimate for US production came in at 2.883 billion bushels (range
2.846-2.938) as compared with the August USDA estimate of 2.877 billion bushels.
Last years production came in at 2.418 billion bushels. For ending stocks the
average trade estimate is at 204 million bushels (range 175-253) as compared
with the August USDA estimate of 190 million bushels. The short-term weather
forecast for above normal temperatures and below normal rainfall into September
15th for the Midwest looks ideal for increasing harvest and also for helping to
bring the crops in the northern cornbelt closer to maturity. Weekly export
sales, released before the opening, are expected to come in near 200,000-400,000
tons for soybeans, 40,000-90,000 tons for meal and 5,000-13,000 tons for oil.
November soybeans short-term resistance points come in at 586 and 596 1/4 with
575 and 565 1/2 as support.
Technical Outlook
BEANS (NOV) 09/10/2004: Momentum studies are
declining, but have fallen to oversold levels. The close below the 9-day moving
average is a negative short-term indicator for trend. It is a slightly negative
indicator that the close was under the swing pivot. The next downside objective
is now at 574 3/4. The next area of resistance is around 586 and 590 3/4, while
1st support hits today at 578 and below there at 574 3/4.
MEAL (DEC) 09/10/2004: Momentum studies are
declining, but have fallen to oversold levels. The close below the 9-day moving
average is a negative short-term indicator for trend. The close over the pivot
swing is a somewhat positive setup. The next downside objective is now at 167.8.
The next area of resistance is around 171.7 and 173.5, while 1st support hits
today at 168.9 and below there at 167.8.
BEANOIL (DEC) 09/10/2004: Stochastics trending
lower at midrange will tend to reinforce a move lower especially if support
levels are taken out. The close below the 9-day moving average is a negative
short-term indicator for trend. The market has a slightly positive tilt with the
close over the swing pivot. The next downside objective is 23.39. The next area
of resistance is around 23.82 and 23.92, while 1st support hits today at 23.56
and below there at 23.39.
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WHEAT MARKET RECAP
9/9/2004
December Wheat finished up 1/2 at 320 1/4, 3 1/4 off the high
and 1 1/4 up from the low. March Wheat closed up 1/4 at 330 1/4. This was 1 3/4
up from the low and 2 1/4 off the high.
The market found direction from a lack of bearish
input from overnight news and continued support from expectations for a lower
Canadian harvest due to poor weather. This sparked more short-covering and with
funds holding a near record net short position, short-covering could be
triggered by any positive technical action such as a move through resistance.
Positioning ahead of the USDA reports, released in the morning is expected to
impact pricing today as well. Traders do not expect much in the way of changes
in the supply/demand report with the next spring wheat production forecast not
released until late September in the annual small grains report. The average
trade estimate for the US 2004/2005 ending stocks is at 560 million bushels
(range 531-578) as compared with 578 million bushels from the USDA in the August
report. There were no deliveries against the September contract. Weekly export
sales, released before the opening, are expected to come in near 400,000-600,000
tons as compared with 557,500 tons last week. Support for December wheat comes
in at 318 and 315 with 323 3/4 and 327 1/2 as resistance.
Technical Outlook
WHEAT (DEC) 09/10/2004: Stochastics trending
lower at midrange will tend to reinforce a move lower especially if support
levels are taken out. With the close higher than the pivot swing number, the
market is in a slightly bullish posture. The next downside target is now at 316
1/4. The next area of resistance is around 322 1/2 and 325 1/4, while 1st
support hits today at 318 and below there at 316 1/4.
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LIVE CATTLE RECAP
9/9/2004
October Live Cattle closed down 0.30 at 82.60.
This was 0.10 up from the low and 0.75 off the high.
October Feeder Cattle finished down 0.32 at
107.75, 0.85 off the high and 0.35 up from the low.
The cattle market traded both side of unchanged
on Thursday as a weak tone for the cash market clashed with sharply higher pork
prices. The slaughter weights are high and beef prices are down from last week
and with a higher showlist this week, traders expect cash to come in under
$80.00 this week which could leave October at a stiff premium to the cash
market. However, hopes of improving export demand into next year and hopes that
the cash market will bottom soon helped to provide underlying support.
Boxed-beef cutout values (600-750 choice) were down $0.75 on the day at
mid-session to $130.63 as compared with $134.46 last week at this time.
Technical Outlook
CATTLE (OCT) 09/10/2004: Momentum studies are
still bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal
action if it occurs. A negative signal for trend short-term was given on a close
under the 9-bar moving average. The market tilt is slightly negative with the
close under the pivot. The next downside target is 81.920. The next area of
resistance is around 83.020 and 83.600, while 1st support hits today at 82.200
and below there at 81.920.
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LEAN HOGS RECAP
9/9/2004
October Lean Hogs closed up 1.05 at 65.60. This
was 1.20 up from the low and 0.92 off the high.
February Pork Bellies finished down 1.87 at
94.17, 2.02 off the high and 0.30 up from the low.
The market pushed sharply higher on the session
led by active short-covering and new buying from speculators and a void of
commercial selling interest overhead. With the cash markets steady to higher,
and futures at a huge discount to the cash market, the market surged higher and
traded close to limit-up near mid-session. The CME 2-Day Lean index for the
period ending September 7th was down just 5 cents to 72.20 which is down just 23
cents since the end of August. The slow pace of decline has attracted increased
speculative interest on the long side and has discouraged commercial sellers to
offer resistance on rallies.
Technical Outlook
HOGS (OCT) 09/10/2004: The moving average
crossover up (9 above 18) indicates a possible developing short-term uptrend.
Stochastics are at mid-range but trending higher, which should reinforce a move
higher if resistance levels are taken out. The market’s short-term trend is
positive on the close above the 9-day moving average. With the close over the
1st swing resistance number, the market is in a moderately positive position.
The next upside objective is 67.650. The next area of resistance is around
66.650 and 67.650, while 1st support hits today at 64.550 and below there at
63.420.
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COCOA MARKET RECAP
9/9/2004
December Cocoa finished down 14 at 1474, 24 off
the high and 14 up from the low.
Cocoa prices remained weak, but the trade thinks
that recent sellers are losing their aggressiveness. However, cocoa did manage
to respect the prior days low and critical support point of $1,450. Some traders
are suggesting that wild unjustified price action might be set to come to an end
as the cocoa production cycle begins to enter a more critical phase. With a
couple days more days of sideways action it is possible that this weeks low will
become a solid support point, especially since the level sits on top of the
April through June consolidation.
Technical Outlook
COCOA (DEC) 09/10/2004: Momentum studies are
still bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal
action if it occurs. The market’s close below the 9-day moving average is an
indication the short-term trend remains negative. The market’s close below the
pivot swing number is a mildly negative setup. The next downside target is now
at 1439. The market is approaching oversold levels on an RSI reading under 30.
The next area of resistance is around 1493 and 1514, while 1st support hits
today at 1455 and below there at 1439.
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COFFEE MARKET RECAP
9/9/2004
December Coffee closed up 2.75 at 74.00. This was
2.50 up from the low and 0.20 off the high.
The market seemed to have lacked the near-term
fundamental news to find direction and talk of another hurricane on track to
Florida was enough to spark short-covering from fund traders to support the
surge higher. The close back over the 40-day moving average leaves a more
positive technical view for the market and leaves funds vulnerable to more
short-covering. There is plenty of coffee in warehouses stored in Miami and the
presence of a category five hurricane headed toward Florida was enough to
provide support. Weather conditions look favorable for the tail end of harvest
in Brazil and cash news was slow.
Technical Outlook
COFFEE (DEC) 09/10/2004: The cross over and close
above the 40-day moving average is an indication the longer-term trend has
turned positive. Momentum studies trending lower at mid-range should accelerate
a move lower if support levels are taken out. A positive signal for trend
short-term was given on a close over the 9-bar moving average. The market has a
bullish tilt coming into today’s trade with the close above the 2nd swing
resistance. The next downside objective is now at 70.75. The next area of
resistance is around 75.35 and 76.10, while 1st support hits today at 72.65 and
below there at 70.75.
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SUGAR MARKET RECAP
9/9/2004
October Sugar closed down 0.17 at 7.75. This was
0.02 up from the low and 0.20 off the high.
October sugar closed 17 lower on the session and
to the lowest close for the month which might attract additional speculative
long liquidation ahead with only 15 trading sessions left before the contract
expires. Funds were active at rolling longs from October to March which added to
the pressure up front. The European Commission awarded licenses for export for
just 27,000 tonnes as compared with trade expectations for 60,000 to 100,000
tonnes. While there was talk of interest in the world cash market from
Indonesia, Iraq and others this week, the lack of confirmation of trades added
to the bearish tone.
Technical Outlook
SUGAR (MAR) 09/10/2004: Momentum studies are
trending higher but have entered overbought levels. The market’s short-term
trend is positive on the close above the 9-day moving average. The daily closing
price reversal down is a negative indicator for prices. It is a slightly
negative indicator that the close was under the swing pivot. The next upside
target is 8.79. The next area of resistance is around 8.67 and 8.79, while 1st
support hits today at 8.49 and below there at 8.42.
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COTTON MARKET RECAP
9/9/2004
October Cotton finished down 0.45 at 52.55, 0.05
off the high and 2.30 up from the low.
The cotton market opened lower and fell sharply
into the mid-session as long liquidation hit the market ahead of the USDA Crop
Production and Supply/Demand reports for release before the opening. The market
bounced 175 points off of the early lows as uncertainty regarding the direction
of the hurricane helped to keep the trade choppy. The average trade estimate for
cotton production is at 19.857 million bales (range 19.5-20.4) as compared with
the August forecast of 20.18 million bales and 18.26 million bales last year.
Ending stocks are expected near 5.62 million bales (range 5.3-6.0) as compared
with the August forecast of 5.9 million bales. Weekly export sales, released
before the opening, are expected to come in near 100,000-150,000 bales as
compared with 205,800 bales last week.
Technical Outlook
COTTON (DEC) 09/10/2004: Momentum studies
trending lower at mid-range could accelerate a price break if support levels are
broken. The market’s close below the 9-day moving average is an indication the
short-term trend remains negative. It is a slightly negative indicator that the
close was lower than the pivot swing number. The next downside objective is
49.81. The next area of resistance is around 53.37 and 54.06, while 1st support
hits today at 51.25 and below there at 49.81.