This Is What The Bond Market Is Saying About Tomorrow’s Fed Meeting
9/20/2004
December Bonds closed up 0-25 at 112-21. This was
0-19 up from the low and 0-02 off the high.
December 10 Yr Treasury Notes finished up 0-170
at 113-070, 0-010 off the high and 0-125 up from the low.
It also seemed like the Treasury market was
downgrading the chance of a rate hike in the action Monday morning. With the
Tuesday FED meeting generally expected to yield a move by the Fed it is possible
that the consensus is changing slightly. With expectations already calling for
more soft economy numbers ahead of the rate decision tomorrow it is not
surprising that buyers decided to jump into the fray. A Wall Street downgrade in
the consumer products sector, might be another reason for the deterioration in
the economic outlook and the higher pulse in Treasury prices. Continued weakness
in the equity market and generally firm energy prices are another undermine for
the economy and that also served to lift Treasury prices on Monday.
Technical Outlook
BONDS (DEC) 09/21/2004: Rising stochastics at
overbought levels warrant some caution for bulls. The close above the 9-day
moving average is a positive short-term indicator for trend. A positive setup
occurred with the close over the 1st swing resistance. The near-term upside
objective is at 113-07. The next area of resistance is around 113-01 and 113-07,
while 1st support hits today at 112-11 and below there at 111-26.
TNOTES (DEC) 09/21/2004: Momentum studies are
trending higher but have entered overbought levels. A positive signal for trend
short-term was given on a close over the 9-bar moving average. A positive setup
occurred with the close over the 1st swing resistance. The next upside objective
is 113-195. The next area of resistance is around 113-150 and 113-195, while 1st
support hits today at 112-315 and below there at 112-200.
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STOCK INDICES RECAP
9/20/2004
December S&P finished down 6.7 at 1122.3, 5.2 off
the high and 1.7 up from the low.
December S&P E-Mini closed down 6.75 at 1122.25.
This was 1.75 up from the low and 6.75 off the high.
December Dow closed down 85 at 10198. This was 18
up from the low and 52 off the high.
December Dow E-Mini finished down 87 at 10196, 90
off the high and 16 up from the low.
With energy prices remaining firm into the
opening Monday and the US stock market trickling lower, it would certainly seem
like the bear mentality remains in control of stock prices. Furthermore, with
the upward thrust in Treasury prices hinting at concern for future growth we can
understand the bearish mentality prevailing on Wall Street. The fact that the
trade expects US housing numbers due out on Tuesday to show a 1.4% decline could
actually spark talk that the Fed will hold off on hiking rates in the meeting
Tuesday and that could end up supporting prices. Profit warnings from the
consumer products sector of the equity market is another issue Monday that
undermined macro economic sentiment and that certainly discouraged would-be
buyers during the action Monday.
Technical Outlook
S&P 500 (DEC) 09/21/2004: The daily stochastics
have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. Daily stochastics turning
lower from overbought levels is bearish and will tend to reinforce a downside
break especially if near-term support is penetrated. A negative signal for trend
short-term was given on a close under the 9-bar moving average. The market’s
close below the 1st swing support number suggests a moderately negative setup
for today. The next downside target is 1116.33. Bearish daily studies indicate
selling minor rallies this session. The next area of resistance is around
1125.85 and 1130.12, while 1st support hits today at 1118.95 and below there at
1116.33.
SP EMINI (DEC) 09/21/2004: Momentum studies
trending lower from overbought levels is a bearish indicator and would tend to
reinforce lower price action. The market’s short-term trend is negative as the
close remains below the 9-day moving average. The market setup is somewhat
negative with the close under the 1st swing support. The next downside target is
now at 1115.13. Short-term indicators on the defensive. Consider selling an
intraday bounce. The next area of resistance is around 1126.75 and 1132.12,
while 1st support hits today at 1118.25 and below there at 1115.13.
NASDAQ (DEC) 09/21/2004: The daily stochastics
gave a bullish indicator with a crossover up. Studies are showing positive
momentum but are now in overbought territory, so some caution is warranted. The
close above the 9-day moving average is a positive short-term indicator for
trend. The close over the pivot swing is a somewhat positive setup. The next
upside target is 1454.50. The next area of resistance is around 1443.00 and
1454.50, while 1st support hits today at 1420.00 and below there at 1408.50.
MINIDOW (DEC) 09/21/2004: Negative momentum
studies in the neutral zone will tend to reinforce lower price action. A
negative signal for trend short-term was given on a close under the 9-bar moving
average. The swing indicator gave a moderately negative reading with the close
below the 1st support number. The next downside objective is now at 10109. The
next area of resistance is around 10249 and 10320, while 1st support hits today
at 10143 and below there at 10109.
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CURRENCY MARKET RECAP
9/20/2004
December US Dollar finished up 8 at 8918, 31 off
the high and 8 up from the low.
December Euro finished down 0.12 at 121.62, 0.11
off the high and 0.44 up from the low.
December Euro Dollar closed up 0.005 at 97.79.
This was 0.01 up from the low and 0.01 off the high.
December Canadian Dollar closed up 0.18 at 77.14.
This was 0.48 up from the low and 0.15 off the high.
December British Pound finished down 0.75 at
177.32, 0.33 off the high and 0.39 up from the low.
December Swiss closed down 0.24 at 78.8. This was
0.3 up from the low and 0.04 off the high.
December Japanese Yen closed up 0.03 at 91.39.
This was 0.19 up from the low and 0.08 off the high.
The Dollar gave up early gains in what appeared
to be a change of heart on the issue of US interest rates. With the US Treasury
market managing an upside breakout on the charts it certainly seemed as if that
market was downgrading the chance for a rate hike. With the market seeing a
downgrade in the US consumer products area it was clear that the macro economic
view toward the US economy was being downgraded. In other words, a lower chance
of higher US rates and a slack economy is not something that would be expected
to attract money to the Dollar. The Canadian Dollar managed the most impressive
action against the Dollar and that might be a sign that the uptrend in that
market has returned.
Technical Outlook
YEN (DEC) 09/21/2004: Negative momentum studies
in the neutral zone will tend to reinforce lower price action. A negative signal
for trend short-term was given on a close under the 9-bar moving average. The
close over the pivot swing is a somewhat positive setup. The next downside
objective is 91.10. The next area of resistance is around 91.52 and 91.63, while
1st support hits today at 91.26 and below there at 91.10.
EURO (DEC) 09/21/2004: A crossover down in the
daily stochastics is a bearish signal. Momentum studies trending lower at
mid-range could accelerate a price break if support levels are broken. The
market’s close below the 9-day moving average is an indication the short-term
trend remains negative. It is a slightly negative indicator that the close was
under the swing pivot. The next downside objective is now at 120.99. The next
area of resistance is around 121.89 and 122.08, while 1st support hits today at
121.35 and below there at 120.99.
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PRECIOUS METALS RECAP
9/20/2004
December Gold closed down 0.6 at 407. This was
1.7 up from the low and 0.4 off the high.
December Silver finished down 0.008 at 6.28,
0.015 off the high and 0.055 up from the low.
October Platinum closed down 1.2 at 841.9. This
was 6.9 up from the low and 2.1 off the high.
Both gold and silver weakened Monday despite the
fact that the Dollar fell sharply from its highs. It certainly seemed like the
fear of a US rate hike on Tuesday was resulting in some concern for physical
demand in gold and silver. With the Asian trade chopped up this week due to
holidays it is possible that the US and European markets dominate daily action
especially through midweek. Seeing the Dollar fail at the high Monday morning,
should take some of the pressure off gold into the critical afternoon meeting on
Tuesday.
Technical Outlook
SILVER (DEC) 09/21/2004: Daily momentum studies
are on the rise from low levels and should accelerate a move higher on a push
through the 1st swing resistance. The market’s close above the 9-day moving
average suggests the short-term trend remains positive. With the close higher
than the pivot swing number, the market is in a slightly bullish posture. The
near-term upside target is at 634.0. The next area of resistance is around 631.5
and 634.0, while 1st support hits today at 624.6 and below there at 620.1.
GOLD (DEC) 09/21/2004: Momentum studies are
rising from mid-range, which could accelerate a move higher if resistance levels
are penetrated. The market’s short-term trend is positive on the close above the
9-day moving average. The market’s close below the pivot swing number is a
mildly negative setup. The next upside target is 408.7. The next area of
resistance is around 408.0 and 408.7, while 1st support hits today at 406.0 and
below there at 404.6.
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COPPER MARKET RECAP
9/20/2004
December Copper finished up 1.75 at 131.95, 0.05
off the high and 1.65 up from the low.
The copper market continues to discount the
potential negatives from the slumping economy. In fact, even the pit trade was
noted as an aggressive buyer in the action Monday and that shows the market is
focused on the bull case regardless of a slumping equity market and a fear of
higher interest rates. Apparently, the market is infatuated with the idea that
Chinese copper prices were up for the 3rd day in a row and up because of
anecdotal ongoing evidence of Chinese buying. Reports of a refinery fire
shouldn’t have influenced prices Monday because the plant in question continued
to run at full capacity.
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ENERGY MARKET RECAP
9/20/2004
October Crude Oil closed up 0.76 at 46.35. This
was 1.05 up from the low and 0.05 off the high.
October Heating Oil closed up 0.18 at 126.59.
This was 1.89 up from the low and 0.91 off the high.
October Unleaded Gas finished up 0.42 at 127.45,
0.45 off the high and 2.35 up from the low.
October Natural Gas finished up 0.14 at 5.25,
0.01 off the high and 0.13 up from the low.
October Propane closed up 0.01 at 0.79. This was
equal to the low and equal to the high.
The energy complex lost its early support as the
trade failed to maintain the high level of speculative optimism that was seen
last week. Even after the Press noted a setback of 92,000 barrels per day in
Russian exports off the Yukos situation the market was unable to maintain its
early bid. Apparently the reduction in Russian Oil exports influenced shipments
to China and that could result in China being forced to compete for other
supplies. Later in the session the Press floated predictions that August OPEC
output had increased by 1.1% versus the prior month on 29.86 million or an
increase of 338,000 barrels per day. Keeping prices firm are concerns that oil
development efforts are simply not at a level that looks to insure future
supply.
Technical Outlook
CRUDE OIL (OCT) 09/21/2004: Momentum studies are
trending higher but have entered overbought levels. A positive signal for trend
short-term was given on a close over the 9-bar moving average. A positive setup
occurred with the close over the 1st swing resistance. The near-term upside
objective is at 47.20. The next area of resistance is around 46.90 and 47.20,
while 1st support hits today at 45.80 and below there at 45.00.
UNLEADED (OCT) 09/21/2004: Rising stochastics at
overbought levels warrant some caution for bulls. The market’s close above the
9-day moving average suggests the short-term trend remains positive. With the
close higher than the pivot swing number, the market is in a slightly bullish
posture. The next upside objective is 129.77. The next area of resistance is
around 128.85 and 129.77, while 1st support hits today at 126.05 and below there
at 124.18.
HEATING OIL (OCT) 09/21/2004: Daily stochastics
have risen into overbought territory which will tend to support reversal action
if it occurs. The market’s short-term trend is positive on the close above the
9-day moving average. With the close higher than the pivot swing number, the
market is in a slightly bullish posture. The near-term upside objective is at
129.14. The next area of resistance is around 127.99 and 129.14, while 1st
support hits today at 125.19 and below there at 123.55.
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CORN MARKET RECAP
9/20/2004
December Corn finished down 2 1/2 at 212
3/4, 2 1/4 off the high and 1/4 up from the low. March Corn closed down 2 1/2 at
222 3/4. This was 1/4 up from the low and 2 1/4 off the high.
The market pushed to a new contract low for the
7th session in a row as weather remains ideal for the harvest of the southern
cornbelt and weather remains ideal to help the northern crops reach maturity
ahead of the end to the growing season. Weak exports and near perfect weather to
advance the harvest which is expected to be 9-11% over last years record high
continues to attract speculative selling. For the weekly export inspections
report, exports were pegged at 26.88 million bushels for the week ending
September 16th as compared with trade expectations at 30-35 million bushels and
40.89 million bushels necessary each week to reach the USDA projection. The
Commitment-of-Traders report with options, released on Friday, showed the corn
market in an oversold condition with speculators holding a net short position of
nearly 95,000 contracts. The largest speculative net short in history was
134,506 contracts in March of 1999. Ideas that the market is technically
oversold have helped slow the selling but the market still seems to lack a
“reason” for commercial buyers to get more active. Corn planting progress in
Argentina is behind last years pace due to dry weather in some areas. December
corn resistance comes in at 215 and 217 1/2 with 210 and 206 1/4 as next
support.
Technical Outlook
CORN (DEC) 09/21/2004: Daily stochastics
declining into oversold territory suggest the selling may be drying up soon. The
market’s close below the 9-day moving average is an indication the short-term
trend remains negative. The close below the 2nd swing support number puts the
market on the defensive. The next downside target is 210 3/4. Some caution in
pressing the downside is warranted with the RSI under 30. The next area of
resistance is around 214 and 215 3/4, while 1st support hits today at 211 1/2
and below there at 210 3/4.
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SOY COMPLEX RECAP
9/20/2004
November Soybeans finished down 9 1/4 at 543 3/4,
4 1/4 off the high and 1 1/4 up from the low. January Soybeans closed down 9 3/4
at 550 3/4. This was 3/4 up from the low and 5 1/4 off the high.
December Soymeal closed down 2 at 163.4. This was
0.3 up from the low and 1.0 off the high.
December Soybean Oil finished down 0.27 at 21.62,
0.13 off the high and 0.07 up from the low.
The market gapped to 11 months lows and gapped
below the August lows to start the session which is seen as a bearish technical
development. Ideal weather for active harvest this week and into the weekend
along with excellent weather for the crops in the north to “catch-up” on the
maturity pace helped to trigger the selling. Traders suspect that tonight’s
weekly crop progress report will show the harvest near 7-10% complete. Weakness
in cash meal basis levels was noted again in the Midwest this week with
expanding harvest helping to pressure. For the weekly export inspections report,
exports were pegged at 2.682 million bushels for the week ending September 16th
as compared with trade expectations at 2-5 million bushels. Talk of higher than
expected yields continue to pressure the market with ideas that the market is
too oversold helping to provide some light support. Palm oil futures were down 8
points this morning which may have helped pressure the soybean oil market.
India’s Farm Ministry over the weekend pegged 2004/2005 (July-June) winter
oilseeds output at 15.45 million tons compared with 17 million tons this past
season. Short-term resistance for November soybeans comes in near 546 and 552
with next support at 541 and then 533.
Technical Outlook
BEANS (NOV) 09/21/2004: Daily stochastics
declining into oversold territory suggest the selling may be drying up soon. The
market’s close below the 9-day moving average is an indication the short-term
trend remains negative. More selling pressure is likely given yesterday’s gap
lower price action on the day session chart. The market is in a bearish position
with the close below the 2nd swing support number. The next downside target is
now at 539. The market is approaching oversold levels on an RSI reading under
30. The next area of resistance is around 546 1/2 and 550, while 1st support
hits today at 541 and below there at 539.
MEAL (DEC) 09/21/2004: Daily stochastics
declining into oversold territory suggest the selling may be drying up soon. The
market’s close below the 9-day moving average is an indication the short-term
trend remains negative. The swing indicator gave a moderately negative reading
with the close below the 1st support number. The next downside objective is
162.3. With a reading under 30, the 9-day RSI is approaching oversold levels.
The next area of resistance is around 164.0 and 164.8, while 1st support hits
today at 162.8 and below there at 162.3.
BEANOIL (DEC) 09/21/2004: Daily stochastics are
trending lower but have declined into oversold territory. The market’s close
below the 9-day moving average is an indication the short-term trend remains
negative. The gap lower on the day session chart is bearish and puts the market
on the defensive. The market’s close below the 1st swing support number suggests
a moderately negative setup for today. The next downside objective is 21.44. The
market is approaching oversold levels on an RSI reading under 30. The next area
of resistance is around 21.71 and 21.83, while 1st support hits today at 21.52
and below there at 21.44.
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WHEAT MARKET RECAP
9/20/2004
December Wheat finished down 4 1/2 at 328 3/4, 4 1/4 off the
high and 3 3/4 up from the low. March Wheat closed down 3 3/4 at 340. This was 3
1/2 up from the low and 3 off the high.
Weakness in the spring wheat futures in
Minneapolis helped to trigger the early selling as traders view the weather
forecast for the spring wheat harvest as favorable. Traders are still awaiting
official word on the Iraq tender for 100,000 tons of optional origin wheat as
rumors of purchases from the US and from Australia last week can not be
confirmed. There are rumors that France sold 500,000 tons of wheat to China.
Declining prices in Europe added to the bearish tone this morning as traders
feel that US prices will need to move lower in order to be competitive on the
world market. For the weekly export inspections report, exports were pegged at
23.84 million bushels for the week ending September 16th as compared with trade
expectations at 27-32 million bushels. Cumulative export shipments have reached
35% of the forecast for the season as compared with 32.2% on average for this
time of the year. China was shipped 112,000 tons on the week. Forecasts for
rains of 1/2 to 2 inches in Nebraska and western Kansas this week were seen as
bearish as the rain prepares the soils for planting. In Argentina, recent
dryness has raised concerns for crop conditions in some areas as the crop is
reaching a stage in which more moisture will be needed soon or crop conditions
will deteriorate. December futures managed to hold support at the 40-day moving
average at 325 1/2 today. Resistance for December wheat comes in at 331 1/2 with
support at 325 1/4 and 321 1/2.
Technical Outlook
WHEAT (DEC) 09/21/2004: The daily stochastics
gave a bearish indicator with a crossover down. Momentum studies trending lower
from overbought levels is a bearish indicator and would tend to reinforce lower
price action. A negative signal for trend short-term was given on a close under
the 9-bar moving average. It is a slightly negative indicator that the close was
lower than the pivot swing number. The next downside objective is now at 321.
The next area of resistance is around 332 3/4 and 336 3/4, while 1st support
hits today at 324 3/4 and below there at 321.
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LIVE CATTLE RECAP
9/20/2004
October Live Cattle closed up 0.55 at 86.00. This
was 0.70 up from the low and 0.40 off the high.
October Feeder Cattle finished up 0.90 at 112.80,
0.55 off the high and 0.65 up from the low.
October cattle was supported by the higher cash
trade after the close Friday but the December contract failed to take out
Friday’s highs in early trade in spite of an opening call of 50-100 higher due
to the bullishly construed USDA report on Friday afternoon. Boxed-beef cutout
values (600-750 choice) were up $.32 on the day at mid-session to $135.33 as
compared with $131.16 last week at this time. News that there was no progress in
Japan/US talks to bring down the beef trade barriers added to the negative tone
for the December futures in spite of the bullish USDA news. Lower than expected
placements, however, did support the April contract.
Technical Outlook
CATTLE (OCT) 09/21/2004: Momentum studies are
trending higher but have entered overbought levels. The market’s close above the
9-day moving average suggests the short-term trend remains positive. It is a
mildly bullish indicator that the market closed over the pivot swing number. The
near-term upside target is at 87.020. The next area of resistance is around
86.520 and 87.020, while 1st support hits today at 85.450 and below there at
84.820.
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LEAN HOGS RECAP
9/20/2004
October Lean Hogs closed up 1.80 at 73.80. This
was 1.05 up from the low and 0.17 off the high.
February Pork Bellies finished up 2.15 at 101.22,
0.62 off the high and 1.92 up from the low.
October hogs gapped into new contract highs for
the daily and weekly charts which is a bullish development as the market is now
trying to keep up with the cash market advance. Cash live hogs at Peoria were up
$1.50 to start the week and the market found additional buying support from
strong gains in pork product and loin prices again on Friday afternoon. The CME
2-Day Lean index for the period ending September 16th was up 74 cents to 73.76
as compared with 71.77 one week previous. December hogs closed higher for the
8th session in a row and into contract highs for the 4th session in a row.
Technical Outlook
HOGS (OCT) 09/21/2004: The market made a new
contract high on the rally. Rising stochastics at overbought levels warrant some
caution for bulls. A positive signal for trend short-term was given on a close
over the 9-bar moving average. The gap up on the day session chart gave a
bullish indicator and more follow through could be seen this session. The market
has a bullish tilt coming into today’s trade with the close above the 2nd swing
resistance. The next upside target is 74.800. The market is becoming somewhat
overbought now that the RSI is over 70. The next area of resistance is around
74.400 and 74.800, while 1st support hits today at 73.200 and below there at
72.370.
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COCOA MARKET RECAP
9/20/2004
December Cocoa finished up 13 at 1474, 14 off the
high and 12 up from the low.
Cocoa prices were unchanged to slightly higher to
start the week but some traders might assume a slightly more bullish stance off
political situation as some French Peace Keeping forces were arrested for a Bank
robbery and that could increase tensions between the locals and the foreign
soldiers. Reports of industry buying also provide the market with some support
especially since the trade is beginning to anticipate origin and hedge selling
activity. With small specs also thought to be active in the action Monday that
would seem to increase the odds that the recent consolidation support zone will
hold up.
Technical Outlook
COCOA (DEC) 09/21/2004: Daily stochastics are
trending lower but have declined into oversold territory. The market’s close
above the 9-day moving average suggests the short-term trend remains positive.
Market positioning is positive with the close over the 1st swing resistance. The
next downside target is now at 1449. The next area of resistance is around 1487
and 1500, while 1st support hits today at 1461 and below there at 1449.
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COFFEE MARKET RECAP
9/20/2004
December Coffee closed up 0.95 at 79.70. This was
3.00 up from the low and 0.10 off the high.
December coffee closed 95 higher on the session
and up 300 points from the early lows to the highest close since June 18th. The
market continues to view the longer-term situation as potentially bullish with
next years Brazil crop expected to be smaller due to the off-year production
cycle and traders waiting for seasonal rains to come over the near-term and
cause a good flowering for the 2005/2006 crop. Drier than normal weather in
September has caused some concerns for the new crop. Vietnam harvest will begin
in late October. The International Coffee Organization pegged world production
for the 2003/2004 season at 101.21 million bags as compared with 121.26 million
bags the previous year. Consumption was pegged at 113.08 million bags from
110.73 million the previous year.
Technical Outlook
COFFEE (DEC) 09/21/2004: Studies are showing
positive momentum but are now in overbought territory, so some caution is
warranted. The market’s short-term trend is positive on the close above the
9-day moving average. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is
somewhat bullish. A positive setup occurred with the close over the 1st swing
resistance. The next upside objective is 82.05. With a reading over 70, the
9-day RSI is approaching overbought levels. The next area of resistance is
around 81.20 and 82.05, while 1st support hits today at 78.15 and below there at
75.90.
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SUGAR MARKET RECAP
9/20/2004
October Sugar closed down 0.21 at 7.38. This was
0.01 up from the low and 0.19 off the high.
A gap lower to start the week is considered a
bearish technical development and with the nearby futures closing at the lowest
level since mid-June, and speculators holding a net long position of over
107,000 contracts from the last COT report, the long liquidation from
speculators was seen as the driving force of the sharply lower trade. With only
7 trading days left, the speculative liquidation could accelerate out of the
October futures with 58,966 contracts still open. Cash activity has been small
with only routine buying and the market seems to lack the near-term supply
threat to support more technical buying from speculators. While India is
increasing their import pace, the cash markets have yet to tighten enough to
offset the speculative washout of the past two weeks.
Technical Outlook
SUGAR (MAR) 09/21/2004: Negative momentum studies
in the neutral zone will tend to reinforce lower price action. The market’s
close below the 9-day moving average is an indication the short-term trend
remains negative. The gap down on the day session chart is bearish with more
selling pressure possible today. The defensive setup, with the close under the
2nd swing support, could cause some early weakness. The next downside objective
is 8.10. The next area of resistance is around 8.35 and 8.46, while 1st support
hits today at 8.17 and below there at 8.10.
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COTTON MARKET RECAP
9/20/2004
October Cotton finished down 0.86 at 49.35, 0.45
off the high and 0.75 up from the low.
The market collapsed under the weight of
speculative and trade house selling on Monday as the cotton trade believes that
prices will need to move low enough to get US cotton more competitive to world
prices. Hurricane bullishness of last week helped to offset the slow export pace
but the USDA is looking for massive exports for the coming year but the trade
was very slow in the past two weeks due to high US prices after the late August
run-up in futures. Moving under the support at 47.70 (now resistance) for
December cotton leaves a test of the August 12th lows as next downside
objective.
Technical Outlook
COTTON (DEC) 09/21/2004: Momentum studies are
declining, but have fallen to oversold levels. The market’s short-term trend is
negative as the close remains below the 9-day moving average. The close below
the 1st swing support could weigh on the market. The next downside target is now
at 45.58. The next area of resistance is around 48.26 and 48.98, while 1st
support hits today at 46.56 and below there at 45.58.