Time For Another Exercise
Do you remember my report of April
18? After showing you several charts of the
Dow, I posed the question of whether the Dow could move higher with so
many names breaking down. Well, time for
another exercise.
I would like each of you to look at these charts before
moving on with this column. It
will take a few minutes. Here we go.
…and last but not least,
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ZRAN |
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You must be asking yourself whether I have lost a few
marbles at this point.
Nope…this is how I figure out the markets. If I can come
up with a list like this of stocks that are totally destroyed or just breaking
down, what does it bode for the
Nasdaq? Did you see some of the names on that list? And by
the way, I left out the BIOTECHS. Biotechs look
like they are being bought out
by Global Crossing, Enron
and K-mart. So this is what I think of
the Nasdaq. It is the same thought I had on
the Dow… no upside…
In fact, it is the same reason I have been telling
everyone to underweight TECH
since February 2000.
It is the same reason I have been telling my radio
audience to be light TECH.
It is the same reason my e-mail subscribers have been
short mostly TECH since day
one.
Simply put, there are hardly any quality breakouts in
Tech…there are mostly breakdowns…and
as I have said before…if the SEMIS break
down…look out below. As soon
as KLA-Tencor
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KLAC |
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PowerRating) started to get
cheesed this week, the rest followed suit.
KLAC had been leading…not anymore. In fact, five minutes before KLAC
started to gag, I sent out a trading lesson to
my subscribers that if KLAC went,
goodbye Nasdaq. I know this is sounding like I am patting myself on
the back…but it isn’t. A lot of hard work,
hours and sweat are put into what
I do. Do not misinterpret. I just care a lot about every dime…and a
lot of dimes have been lost by investors who
refused to give in to the fact of
this brutal bear market for TECHNOLOGY.
So what to do? Just stay in gear with this column. We are
not perfect…but readers of
this column have been reading words like “horrid” and “ugly”
when describing the technical
condition of the Nasdaq. Listeners of my radio show have
heard me make fun of one skillethead (yes, we now have a new name to go
with zipperhead, doughnuthead and
bonehead…any and all suggestions are welcome) strategist
that probably gets paid a couple of million to say that the Nasdaq
would be up 50% in 2002. I have one thing to
say to that person…”GET A SUBSCRIPTION
TO THIS SITE!”
The following charts speak for themselves.
So I pose the question for about the tenth time in the
past 10 weeks: “Will the
positive areas of the market that I have outlined for you in past reports
keep working?” The answer is…I don’t
know. I am just going to watch like a hawk.
Some of those positive areas are HMOs,
HOSPITALS, OIL &
GAS, GOLD,
TOBACCO, DRINKS (NON-ALCOHOLIC
as well as ALCOHOLIC…I can understand why
in this market.), MISC. RETAILERS, RESTAURANTS,
GAMING, S&Ls.
I was wrong about the HOMEBUILDERS.
I thought a real top had been put in. NOT…still working, but once again…more
than likely in a late stage. Careful.
AND as I have said in the past…stay away from TELECOM
anything, NETWORKING,
SOFTWARE and you can now include SEMIS
into the mix. You will see bounces…I
promise that…but until something changes…go elsewhere.