Today’s Trading Lesson From TradingMarkets
Editor’s Note:
The following is a
trading lesson from
TM University. Each night we’ll bring a new lesson to the forefront for you
to learn and profit from.
Brice
Over the past
10 years, I have been on a search for the most important
characteristics of winning and losing stocks.
During that time, I have found several
different kinds of setups, breakouts and breakdowns that work for me. I love
cups and handles, flat bases and base-on-top-of-base formations for the longs.
For the sells, breakdowns off of flat bases or stocks that wedge up after drops
work well.
But my absolute favorites are stocks
that gap up or gap down. I believe it is the most significant sign of
accumulation or distribution. A gap occurs when a stock opens significantly
higher or lower than the previous day. It shows up as a gap on a price chart.
I am only interested in those stocks that gap because of an earnings report. I
give no weight to stocks that gap on a brokerage recommendation. Earnings are
the driving force behind stocks, so that is where I focus. The studies I have
done amaze me because of the success occasions for stocks that have gapped up.
The larger the gap, the better.
Gaps Up
I believe the reason for sometimes seeing the better action after a gap up in
price is that once the earnings come out, analysts raise their estimates, not
only for that quarter but usually for the following quarters. Institutional
money may pour in on that day. Investors will not buy after a stock is up a
large number on the open, just like many investors don’t like buying when a
stock makes a new high. I believe this gives the smart investor a chance. I have
found that stocks that have gapped up, have held up better in a bad market. In a
good market, they have often gone on their way very quickly.
I would be careful about
buying stocks that gap up after a big run. They have been prone to failure at
the end of the big move. If you are fortunate enough to find a gap right at a
breakout point, I believe the potential for success is higher.
Here are several examples.
Notice, I did not list any stocks from
the year 2000. Good reason. There weren’t many. When hardly any stocks are
gapping up, it may tell you about the market.
Gaps Down
On the other end of the spectrum, and probably more important than stocks
gapping up, is the gap down. I say this because protecting principle is
sometimes more important than making money. Just look at the year 2000. After I
read about stocks gapping up, I decided to find out if the opposite was true
about stocks gapping down. The results of my studies were amazing. Simply put,
when a stock gaps down on a worsening earnings outlook, the best thing to do may
be to get out of the way. There is no one magic bullet to investing. But if
there is one technical characteristic that could work consistently, it is the
gap down.
You must understand that there are several things potentially at work when a
stock does gap down.
1) Something fundamental may have changed at the company. Wall Street tends
immediately to react to this. It is not easy for companies to bounce back from a
bad quarter. In fact, I believe in the “cockroach effect.” Usually one bad
quarter leads to another.
2) The way Wall Street looks at the stock may have changed. Often the company
loses credibility. Investors, analysts as well as institutions become afraid to
touch damaged merchandise.
3) Most important is the word reality. I have looked at thousands of stocks over
many market cycles. Stock price action is not one person’s opinion. It is the
interaction of all. One best not fight this action. The fact is that ignoring a
gap down could be fatal to an investor that does not recognize it for what it
is. But don’t take my word for it. Do what I did. Start your own study. I
believe you will be amazed.
Here are just a sampling from the year 2000.There were many more. A great clue
to how bad the market was going to get was to watch how many stocks did, in
fact, gap down.
