Underlying Resilience
The Qs have are in downtrend
continuation mode on the hourly and daily
charts as we approach midday and are testing their recent multi-day lows around
37.00. Early strength in the semis, while continuing to provide some strength
divergence in the midst of the sell-off, has ebbed a bit, yet continues to show
some underlying resilience. Intraday trends have been strong, and the three-minute
15-MA in particular has been a strong guide for the morning trade. On a longer-term
basis, the Qs are testing critical support in terms of recent lows, and I am
looking to the next day or two to provide critical clues in terms of further
downside or a bounce and follow-through from the triple-bottom test.
Monday February 4,
2002 12:00 PM EDT
Last night’s
Championship win by the Patriots (incredibly no longer an oxymoron) admittedly
stirred up several deep personal feelings and images related not only to
exercising the ghosts of Dent, Buckner and Dreith for faithful and
long-suffering New England fans, but to several poignant aspects that impact all
of us in the trading world on a daily basis. It is said that sports and trading
mirror life, and this weekend’s events hit home on many fronts:
Humility and respect.
In similar industries where egos can run rampant, it is those who effectively
surrender their will to actual conditions who ultimately achieve set goals.
Similarly, we’re reminded that no one can predict the future in businesses which
rely on tendencies and probability, and even when probability appears high at
times, no setup carries a 100% guarantee.
Skill vs. luck. Just
as there’s no such thing as a lucky champion, the same can be said for a
successful trader. Those who succeed in this business do so because of one
simple reason: untiring hard work day after day which then places the trader in
position to take advantage of any breaks
which may occur.
Against the world.
I’ve had some fun recently with the 14-point spread which many of us in this
corner of the country simply couldn’t understand, even after removing the
rose-colored glasses. Yet I now can’t help but look back to the day when I made
the decision to leave a safe corporate executive position to pursue this
business called trading when despite successes in other areas of my life, the
virtual "spread" was even greater given that the majority who enter
this business fail — many miserably. Has it been an easy road? Not at all. Have
I had my share of bruising hits? You bet. Were there times when I thought the
dream would be ruined by a flag after an apparent touchdown? Absolutely. Yet
never underestimate what belief in yourself, shutting off popular opinion,
untiring focus and tenacity can do.
Good Trading,