Watch These Levels On Bonds
BOND MARKET RECAP
11/28/2003
It appeared as if the Treasury market finally accepted some of the bullish information released from the US economy but the slightly higher equity market action probably pushed the market through some chart support in thin conditions and prices sagged more than they would have in a normal trading session. The longs might have been concerned that strong week end sales activity would put even more pressure on their positions and they simply moved to the sidelines. With the ISM and Construction spending out Monday it is possible that the numbers could continue to weigh on prices.
Technical Outlook
BONDS (DEC) 12/01/03: The close below the 2nd swing support number puts the market on the defensive. Near-term resistance for bonds is at 109.24 and then again at 110.16, while swing support hits at 108.23 and below there at 108.14. The market’s close below the 9-day moving average is an indication the short-term trend remains negative. Daily stochastics turning lower from overbought levels is bearish and will tend to reinforce a downside break especially if near-term support is penetrated. The next downside target is 108.14.
T-NOTES(DEC) Momentum studies trending lower at mid-range should accelerate a move lower if support levels are taken out. The next downside objective is now at 111.27. The market is in a bearish position with the close below the 2nd swing support number. The major trend is down with the cross over back below the 40-day moving average. Near-term resistance for the T-Notes is at 112.23 and then again at 113.07, while swing support hits at 112.01 and below there at 111.27. The market’s short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day moving average.
STOCK INDICES RECAP
11/28/2003
The stock market remains in good position but one can’t help but be concerned about the inability to respond directly to the type of favorable economic news seen this week. It would seem that skepticism abounds toward the recovery and that the market might have to see confirmation of a very strong week end sales period just to keep the slight upward bias in place. It is important to remember that a number of sentiment indicators leaped higher this week and that ongoing claims readings fell dramatically and that could mean that jobs are set to make another gain in the coming monthly report and that should be good for equities.
Technical Outlook
S&P500 (DEC) 12/01/03: It is a mildly bullish indicator that the market closed over the pivot swing number. Underlying support comes in at 1056.75 and 1054.33, with overhead resistance at 1060.85 and 1062.53. The market’s short-term trend is positive on a close above the 9-day moving average. Momentum studies are trending higher from mid-range which should support a move higher if resistance levels are penetrated. The near-term upside objective is at 1062.53.
S&P E-Mini (DEC): Stochastics are at mid-range, but trending higher which should reinforce a move higher if resistance levels are taken out. The next upside objective is 1064.50. The market has a slightly positive tilt with the close over the swing pivot. Near-term resistance for the S&P Mini is at 1062.25 and then again at 1064.50, while swing support hits at 1055.75 and below there at 1051.50. A positive signal for trend short-term was given on a close over the 9-bar moving average.
NASDAQ (DEC) The market’s close above the 9-day moving average suggests the short-term trend remains positive. With the close higher than the pivot swing number, the market is in a slightly bullish posture. The market should run into resistance at 1430.00 and above there at 1435.00 with support at 1418.00 and 1411.00. Positive momentum studies in the neutral zone will tend to reinforce higher price action. The next upside target is 1435.0.
CURRENCY MARKET RECAP
11/28/2003
The Dollar managed a slight week ending short covering move probably because of the accumulation of strong US numbers and because of rumors that the US might be prepared to eliminate some prior protectionist moves against China. It is also possible that the Dollar shorts/Euro longs were simply concerned about over extended technical conditions. Another reason the Dollar might have pulled up away from the early lows is the fear that week end holiday sales might be strong enough to alter sentiment in the currencies markets early next week.
Technical Outlook
YEN (DEC): The market’s close below the 9-day moving average is an indication the short-term trend remains negative. It is a slightly negative indicator that the close was lower than the pivot swing number. Swing resistance is targeted at 91.50 and above there at 91.68, with the yen finding support around 91.19 and below there at 91.06. The close under the 40-day moving average indicates the longer-term trend could be turning down. Negative momentum studies in the neutral zone will tend to reinforce lower price action. The next downside target is 91.06.
EURO (DEC): Momentum studies are trending higher, but have entered overbought levels. The near-term upside objective is at 1.2030. The market is in a bearish position with the close below the 2nd swing support number. Swing support for the Euro comes in at 1.1942, with overhead resistance at 1.2030. The market’s short-term trend is positive on a close above the 9-day moving average. The market’s key reversal down is a bearish signal. The rally brought the market to a new contract high. The gap down on the day session chart is bearish with more selling pressure possible today.
PRECIOUS METALS RECAP
11/28/2003
Market closed due to holiday!
Technical Outlook
SILVER (MAR): With the close higher than the pivot swing number, the market is in a slightly bullish posture. Initial support for silver is at 533.5 and below there at 528.0 with resistance likely at 538.4 and 543.0. The market’s close above the 9-day moving average suggests the short-term trend remains positive. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The next upside target is 538.4.
GOLD (FEB): Support for gold today comes in near 388.50, while resistance is pegged at 406.90. Momentum studies are trending lower from high levels which should accelerate a move lower on a break below the 1st swing support. The next downside objective is now at 388.50. The market’s close above the 2nd swing resistance number is a bullish indication. The market’s short-term trend is positive on a close above the 9-day moving average.
COPPER MARKET RECAP
11/28/2003
Market closed for holiday!
ENERGY MARKET RECAP
11/28/2003
Market close due to holiday!
Technical Outlook
CRUDE OIL (JAN): The major trend could be turning up with the close back above the 40-day moving average. The market’s close above the 2nd swing resistance number is a bullish indication. Support for crude is keyed on 30.07 and below there at 29.57, with resistance pegged at 30.76 and 30.95. The market’s short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day moving average. Momentum studies trending lower at mid-range should accelerate a move lower if support levels are taken out. The next downside objective is now at 29.57.
UNLEADED GAS (JAN): Negative momentum studies in the neutral zone will tend to reinforce lower price action. The next downside target is 80.28. A positive setup occurred with the close over the 1st swing resistance. Resistance today is at 85.78, while support should be found around 80.28. The market’s close below the 9-day moving average is an indication the short-term trend remains negative. The cross over and close above the 40-day moving average indicates the longer-term trend has turned up.
HEATING OIL (JAN): The market’s close above the 2nd swing resistance number is a bullish indication. Heating oil should encounter support around 81.86, with resistance is at 86.06. The market’s short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day moving average. Momentum studies trending lower at mid-range should accelerate a move lower if support levels are taken out. The next downside objective is now at 81.86.
CORN MARKET RECAP
11/28/2003
Strong export sales gave corn an early boost Friday, but profit taking in the shortened holiday session trimmed gains. Corn sales came in at 1,601,800 tonnes, which were way above estimates ranging between 600,000 to 900,000 tonnes and above the previous week’s sales of 917,100 tonnes. The market was also supported by no deliveries against the Dec contract. In other export news Cyprus bought 50,000 tonnes of optional-origin corn, South Korea passed on a tender for
440,000 tonnes of corn due to high prices.
Technical Outlook
CORN (MAR) 12/01/03: Momentum studies are trending higher from mid-range which should support a move higher if resistance levels are penetrated. The near-term upside objective is at 251 . The market’s close above the 2nd swing resistance number is a bullish indication. Market resistance comes in at 251 today, with support at 246 . The market’s short-term trend is positive on a close above the 9-day moving average.
SOY COMPLEX RECAP
11/28/2003
The soybean market experienced solid follow-through buying support on Friday after the good reversal on Tuesday in order to re-coup all of the losses on the week. While export sales were not quite as high as traders were looking for (917,500 tonnes vs. 1.0-1.5 million tons expected) the news that China was a buyer of 634,200 tons in the weekly report helped provide solid buying support. Meal deliveries were zero and oil deliveries were at 300 lots. Cumulative sales reached 77.4% of the USDA forecast for the season as compared with 51.7% on average for this time of the year. Strong gains at the China exchange added to the positive tone. Cumulative sales for meal have reached 68.2% of the USDA forecast for the season as compared with 37.8% on average for this time of the year.
Technical Outlook
SOYBEANS (JAN) 12/01/03: Since the close was above the 2nd swing resistance number, the market’s posture is bullish and could see more upside follow-through early in the session. The next area of resistance is around 761 1/2 and 765 1/4, while 1st support hits today at 750 1/2 and below there at 743 1/4. The market’s close above the 9-day moving average suggests the short-term trend remains positive. The cross over and close above the 40-day moving average indicates the longer-term trend has turned up. Negative momentum studies in the neutral zone will tend to reinforce lower price action. The next downside target is 743 1/4.
MEAL (JAN): Daily stochastics are trending lower, but have declined into oversold territory. The next downside objective is now at 225.8. First resistance comes in at 229.1, with support at 226.7. The market’s short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day moving average. It is a mildly bullish indicator that the market closed over the pivot swing number.
BEAN OIL (JAN): The market’s close above the 9-day moving average suggests the short-term trend remains positive. Studies are showing positive momentum, but are now in overbought territory so some caution is warranted. The next upside target is 27.82. Since the close was above the 2nd swing resistance number, the market’s posture is bullish and could see more upside follow-through early in the session. A new contract high was made on the rally. Daily swing resistance is found at 27.64 and above there at 27.82. Support should be encountered at 26.98 and 26.50.
WHEAT MARKET RECAP
11/28/2003
Stronger than expected exports and another sharp drop in the US dollar gave support to March wheat on Friday. Export sales for wheat came in at 1,134,600 tonnes compared to estimates ranging between 500,000 to 700,000 tonnes, with China buying 70,300 tonnes. Decling world wheat production & stocks were re-confirmed by the International Grains Council who forecasted 2003/04 world wheat output at 552 million tonnes, down from 567 million last year, and projected 2003/04 world wheat ending stocks at 129 million tonnes, down
from 163 million last year. March wheat found resistance at 405 and heavy deliveries against the Dec contract were thought to be limiting gains.
Technical Outlook
WHEAT (MAR) 12/01/03: Since the close was above the 2nd swing resistance number, the market’s posture is bullish and could see more upside follow-through early in the session. Look for near-term support at 402 and below there at 396 , with resistance levels at 411 and 414 . The moving average crossover down (9 below 18) indicates a possible developing short-term downtrend. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The next upside target is 414 .
LIVE CATTLE RECAP
11/28/2003
February cattle traded sideways the day after Thanksgiving in a shortened holiday session. While 93 basis the Feb contract continued to be solid resistance Friday. However, strong buying last week which took cash prices $2 higher to $100 cwt could mean supplies could tighten this week since showlists were drawn down last week. Boxed-beef cut-out values were down $.40 to $ 161.57.
Technical Outlook
CATTLE (FEB) 12/01/03: Positive momentum studies in the neutral zone will tend to reinforce higher price action. The next upside target is 94.05. With the close higher than the pivot swing number, the market is in a slightly bullish posture. Support should be encountered at 92.62 and below there at 91.85. Market resistance is at 93.72 and then again at 94.05. The moving average crossover up (9 above 18) indicates a possible developing short-term uptrend.
LEAN HOGS RECAP
11/28/2003
Hog futures traded sharply higher Friday with some contracts making limit moves amid a light volume shortened holiday trade. Steady to firmer tone in the cash market and an improved technical chart signals with recent action suggesting the market had bottomed brought in buyers. Midwest cash hogs traded steady to $1.00 higher as some packers apparently still needed hogs for Saturday’s kill. A large slaughter is expected Saturday since plants were closed Thursday and margins for producers remain profitable. Near-term resistance for Feb hogs is 55.50.
Technical Outlook
HOGS (FEB) 12/01/03: The market’s close above the 2nd swing resistance number is a bullish indication. Resistance levels comes in at 56.10 and 56.55 today, while support is around 54.30 and then 52.95. The market’s short-term trend is positive on a close above the 9-day moving average. The daily stochastics gave a bullish indicator with a crossover up. The near-term upside objective is at 56.55.
COCOA MARKET RECAP
11/28/2003
Market closed due to holiday!
Technical Outlook
COCOA (MAR)12/01/03 The daily closing price reversal up is positive. The market tilt is slightly negative with the close under the pivot. Cocoa should run into resistance at 1453 and above there at 1464 with support at 1423 and 1404. Negative momentum studies in the neutral zone will tend to reinforce lower price action. The next downside target is 1404.00.
COFFEE MARKET RECAP
11/28/2003
The CSCE was closed on Friday, November 28th.
Technical Outlook
COFFEE (MAR)12/1/03 The market setup is supportive for early gains with the close over the 1st swing resistance. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The near-term upside objective is at 61.35.The Coffee contract should run into resistance at 61.00 and above there at 61.35 with support at 60.25 and 59.85. The market’s short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day moving average.
SUGAR MARKET RECAP
11/28/2003
The CSCE was closed on Friday, November 28th.
Technical Outlook
SUGAR (MAR) 12/01/03: The market’s close above the 2nd swing resistance number is a bullish indication. Swing resistance comes in at 6.41, with support found at 6.07. The market’s short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day moving average. The major trend could be turning up with the close back above the 40-day moving average. Momentum studies trending lower at mid-range should accelerate a move lower if support levels are taken out. The next downside objective is now at 6.07.
COTTON MARKET RECAP
11/28/2003
The CSCE was closed on Friday, November 28th.
Technical Outlook
COTTON (MAR) 12/01/03: The market’s close below the 9-day moving average is an indication the short-term trend remains negative. A positive setup occurred with the close over the 1st swing resistance. Next resistance area comes in at 71.51 and then again at 72.22, while support is targeted at 68.67 and 66.54. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The next upside target is 72.22.