Wednesday’s Futures Setups
The two issues that pushed energies
lower today were nervousness about U.N. inspectors in Iraq and more conflict in
Israel. In addition, OPEC said today that it expects 2002 world demand to come
in at 76.5 million barrels per day (mbd) and 2003 demand at 77.2 mbd. This
compares to US Energy Department estimates of 76.3 mbd and 77.6 mbd,
respectively.
Crude oil for January delivery
(
CLF3 |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) dropped .32 or 1.24% to $25.50 a barrel. Jan. heating oil
(
HOF3 |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) dropped .45 of a cent to 72.29 a gallon. Jan. unleaded gasoline
(
HUF3 |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) lost .90 of a cent or 1.29%to 69.09 a gallon. Jan. natural
gas
(
NGF3 |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) was unchanged at 4.34.
The
Dec.Standard & Poor’s 500 futures
(
SPZ2 |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) dropped for a second in a row
on a see-saw trading day. The SPZ2 closed at 898.10 below the 900 support level.
This was a loss of 1.60.
The
Dec. Nasdaq 100
(
NDZ2 |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) took a bigger hit, falling 18.50 or 1.76% to
1032.50.
In the chart above: Jan. feeder cattle
(
FCF3 |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) was on our
list of
Possible Turtle-Soup Plus One Sell Setups after making a new 20-day
high (red circle). The previous 20-day high was at least three days earlier
(blue circle). When the contract trades below the high of the prior 20-day high,
the trade is triggered, and we place a stop immediately one tick above the high
of yesterday, Nov. 18, trailing the move down. We could see feeder cattle
pull back to test the 20-day EMA at around 82.51.
Possible
short candidates:
| Contract |
Setup |
Direction |
Trigger |
| March cocoa ( CCH3 | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating) |
Pull-back from the lows |
down |
break below 1723 |
Dec. dollar ( DXZ2 | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating) |
Pull-back from the lows |
down | break below 105.00 |
Possible
long candidates:
|
Contract |
Setup |
Direction |
Trigger |
| Feb pork bellies ( PBG3 | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating) |
Pull-back from the high |
up |
break above 82 |
| Dec. lean hogs ( LHZ2 | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating) |
Pull-back from the high |
up |
break above 46 |
Dec. S&P 500 E-Mini ( ESZ2 | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating) |
Pull-back from the high |
up | break above 915 |
Dec. bean oil ( BOZ2 | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating) |
Pull-back from the high |
up | break above 22.79 |
| Dec. British pound ( BPZ2 | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating) |
Pull-back from the high | up | break up above 1.5887 |
Jan. soybeans
(
SF3 |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) was on last night’s report, and we were looking
for a break above
$5.70 a bushel. Today, beans
broke and closed above the trigger point.
Jan. soybeans
rose 7 cents or 1.24% to $5.73 1/2 a bushel. The move was helped by talk that
China may buy more soybeans from US farmers. On the daily chart,
Jan. beans
are forming a cup-and-handle
pattern. Today beans attempted to break the 5.76 resistance level, but pulled
back to close at $5.73 1/2 a bushel. With
soybean harvests nearly complete, we will be looking for further
movement to the upside if beans can break the 5.76 level.
Please note that while there are strong trends, one bar or a series
of bars forming a setup can sometimes indicate a contra move for the
next day. This contra move may not be long-lasting — maybe only for a
day or two. Trading with the main trend is always the highest
probability trade.
Use stops on all your trades.