What To Expect On Tuesday Morning

November 24, 2003
Chris Curran

The December S&P 500 and Dow futures opened a
historically bullish week right on cue, posting an opening upside gap and never
looking back. Brokers were good buyers the first hour, with Merrill Lynch
especially keeping the market well bid. A sideways consolidation after the
first 90 minutes gave way to the high of the session in the final hour, before
giving some back after the equities close.

The December S&P 500 futures closed
Monday’s session with a gain of +13.25 points, and finished in the upper 1/2 of
the daily range. The December Dow futures closed the session with a +102 point
gain, and also finished in the upper 1/2 of its range. Volume in the ES
was estimated at 658,000 contracts, which was ahead of Friday’s pace and above
the daily average.

On a daily basis, the ES closed back above its 10-day
and 20-day MAs and really has no overhead resistance back up to the 1,060 area. On an intraday basis, 13, 30, and 60-min cup-and-handle patterns all broke to
the upside as price did a nice (but boring) job of holding its ground to let the
MAs catch up (see chart). The YM was able to close back above its 10-day
MA, but stopped just short of its 20-day MA.

Tuesday and Wednesday will jam
a lot of economic data into a short period of time. On Tuesday at 8:30 am
ET, we have the preliminary GDP number for Q3, which is expected to come in at
7.6%. That is followed at 10 am by the November Consumer Confidence, and
its estimate for an increase to 85.0. With the holiday-shortened week, I’m
not looking to do much after the morning hours. (Don’t tell my wife or I’ll have
to go out and put up the Xmas lights!)

Traders Expo

I got back on Sunday from Las
Vegas and the Traders Expo. I had passed on the past few shows and
although much of this show’s exhibitors were brokers competing for business and
vendors with their “holy grail that only trades 500 times a day” systems, it was
still great to see some of the time-tested actual trader names there sharing
their knowledge and experiences. I’m also happy to report that I’ll be
doing an educational session at the next Expo in New York in February.