What Traders Need To Focus On In The Coming Days

• August 3, 2005
• Richard Wiegand

Global

Top Pentagon officials asserted in late July for the first time that a timetable
for a sharp reduction of U.S. troop presence in Iraq exists. The troop
withdrawal should commence sometime during the summer of 2006, about one year
from now.

These statements conflict with President Bush’s statement earlier today that he
sees no early withdrawal from Iraq.

Bush explained that setting a timetable would merely cause the insurgents to
adjust their tactics, and that U.S. troops would stay on the offensive until the
war there was won.

Money and Interest Rates

Fed funds futures anticipating another quarter point hike when the FOMC meets
again next week. That would be the tenth rate hike, bringing the overnight
lending rate to 3.5%.

The Bank of England is expected to cut rates to 4.5% tomorrow.

The ECB meets tomorrow but is expected to keep rates steady at 2% for the Euro
zone.

Economic Statistics

The Monster Employment Index comes out at 6AM tomorrow. Last month’s reading
measuring the demand for jobs available online came out at 136, almost a 26%
increase in the index value over the June 2004 reading of 108.

Initial jobless claims will also come out at 8:30 AM EST; here the 4 week moving
average is around 318K, and it has been trending down (improving) since May.

Non-farm payrolls and the unemployment rate will of course be the more important
statistics to focus on Friday morning. The consensus forecast is 180K payrolls
and a 5.0% unemployment rate.

Earnings Reports

Large retailers will announce chain-store sales for July.

Among those reporting earnings tomorrow include Unilever, Gillete (G), Harrahs (HET),
Sara Lee (SLE), Goodyear Tire (GT), Pixar (PIXR, Univision (UVN), and Unilver
(UN).

Key Support and Resistance Levels

               
Last     Support     Resistance

SPY        124.72    
123.50         126.00

DJ-30       10,697     10,620        
10,720

QQQQ      40.09       
39.50         40.50

MDY         132.07   
132.60         130.25

Richard Wiegand

 

Richard Wiegand is President of Condor Investment Advisors
and is a fully registered investment advisor and asset manager in the State Of
Connecticut. Mr. Wiegand graduated magna cum laude from Amherst College in 1987,
where he received a B.A. with honors in Political Science. He then went on to
receive a master’s degree in International Finance from the Fletcher School of
Law & Diplomacy in 1989. Richard then embarked on a career in global fund
management in Paris and in New York. He has worked for institutional fund
managers in fixed income and equities, with both an international and domestic
focus. He started out his career in emerging market fixed income institutional
sales and then as portfolio manager at FP Consult, where he combined
macroeconomic country risk analyses with quantitative value and technical
studies.

Richard uses his quantitative skills and experience to help clients meet their
financial objectives. Rather than owning a little bit of everything simply for
the sake of diversification, Richard believes that reward to risk studies should
be done to zero in on core funds or positions that are commensurate with each
client’s risk profile and time horizon. Tactical asset allocations may also be
appropriate for certain investors, where core and peripheral allocations may be
adjusted according to market conditions. Richard has taught courses in finance
as an adjunct professor at a local university, is a member of the American
Association of Individual Investors, and coaches, referees and plays soccer in
New Canaan, Connecticut.