What’s Up, What’s Down: Crude Oil Down, Cattle Up, Orange Juice Down
ENERGIES:
EIA GAS STORAGE. A higher close for natural gas, lower for crude oil and the RBOB while sharply lower for heating oil. The crude oil and RBOB are in bull pennants and the heating oil made a new contract high before settling lower. Natural gas made a new contract high and close. All of the energies still look higher overall.
CURRENCIES:
A higher close for the dollar index while lower for the Euro Fx, British Pound, Aussie Dollar, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc and Japanese Yen. The euro, franc and yen could be forming bottoms but still have a downward bias at this time.
The pound made another new recent low and close again although still hanging in a support area. The Canadian Dollar made a new recent high before settling one tick lower looking bullish but with good resistance above 100 basis the June contract. The Aussie Dollar closed lower again but still in a bull triangle pattern. The dollar index closed higher while still in a bull triangle looking higher overall.
GRAINS:
Today’s Reports: Export Sales. Soymeal settled higher, soybeans unchanged to higher while sharply lower for rough rice and lower for Minneapolis, Kansas City and Chicago wheat along with corn, oats and soymeal. Only Minneapolis wheat is in a rounding bottom formation while Kansas City and Chicago made new lows and closes since their highs.
Corn is still in a strong support area but did close below 600 basis the July contract and now is starting to lose some steam. This market is still strong overall, however, and should eventually take out its highs. Oats closed lower making a lower high for the 6th consecutive trading session but also in a bull triangle. There is a double top at 425 basis the July contract which I don’t feel will hold but looks more important each day it’s still there. The 450 area is still my next objective with good support under 400. Rough rice gapped and closed sharply lower and now is forming a possible top. The beans meal and oil closed strong and should continue moving higher in at least the short term. All are near potential buy signals.
MEATS:
Higher closes for feeder cattle and pork bellies while mixed for lean hogs and cattle again. However, there is bull spreading going on in the cattle and hogs. June cattle made a new recent high again still looking higher and near the top of a strong resistance area. I would wait until the June cattle settle over 9500 before buying a retracement or at least wait to buy under 9375. Feeder cattle also made a new recent high while in the middle of a resistance area.
Hogs made a new recent high close rallying sharply off its session’s lows. This market looks very strong but is in some resistance at this time. Bellies made a new recent high and close. A close over 8175 basis the July contract would look very good but still should continue to work higher overall.
INDICES:
Reports Today: Jobless Claims, Capacity Utilization, Industrial Production. Higher closes for the cash and dow futures along with the S&P’s and Nikkei while lower for the Nasdaq. All of the indices still continue to look higher overall.
METALS:
Lower closes for copper, silver, gold and platinum again. Copper made a new recent low and close almost, but not quite, giving me a sell signal. It is still in a bear pennant looking lower and I’m close to a sell signal. Gold seems to be turning back down but silver and platinum have been consolidating and could rally from their closes. Of course if that happens, gold will surely follow.
SOFTS – 05/15
LUMBER: Lumber settled lower again but is in a good support area with a bottom formation in place. The next few trading sessions could be critical for this market. Many previous bottoming formations didn’t hold. Also lumber is forming a possible larger formation leading me to take off my present buy signal. Bulls can take their shots in this area.
ORANGE JUICE: Orange juice closed sharply lower again ending its bottoming formation. Now OJ is in a critical area to hold.
COCOA: Cocoa sharply lower breaking below 2600 basis the July contract as predicted here if it didn’t close over 2800 first. A close below 2600 would be the end of its upward momentum. Once again this market is also in a critical area to hold.
COTTON: Cotton settled lower still looking lower overall. The 7000 area basis the July contract is critical to hold.
COFFEE: Coffee closed higher but is still in a bull pennant formation. Resistance up to 14000 basis the July contract and a close over 14000 basis the July contract would be a strong breakout to the upside.
SUGAR: Sugar settled down making a new recent low and close. There really isn’t much support underneath this market.
Rick Alexander has been a broker and analyst in the futures business for over thirty years. He is a Vice-President for Sales and Trading at the Zaner Group (www.zaner.com) a Chicago-based futures brokerage firm. Email Rick at ralexander@zaner.com.