What’s Up, What’s Down: Crude Sharply Up, Feeder and Live Cattle Up
Looking Ahead to Today By Reflecting back at Wednesday’s price action
ENERGIES:
EIA GAS STORAGE. Sharply higher closes for natural gas,crude, and heating oil along with the RBOB. Crude oil still looks to be in a large bull triangle. Heating oil also settled higher poised to test its highs but has been very choppy since the middle of May. The RBOB continues to act like it will move higher overall and in better shape technically. Natural gas made another contract high and close.
CURRENCIES:
Higher closes for the for the Euro Fx, Swiss Franc, Japanese Yen, Canadian Dollar, Aussie Dollar, and British Pound while lower for the dollar index. The euro has been in a sideways pattern since the beginning of May, now trading around the middle of the range but in a small bull pennant at this time. The franc has also settled into a sideways pattern.
The yen has been working lower since its highs back on March 17th. The Canadian Dollar also settled higher again trying to form a bottom in a bear market. The Aussie Dollar also settled higher again still in an upward trend possibly forming a potential top. The pound also closed higher still hanging on to a possible bottoming formation in an overall bear market.
The dollar closed lower again but still looks higher overall.
MEATS:
Higher closes for live and feeder cattle, mixed for lean hogs while lower for pork bellies. A new contract high and close for cattle once again while feeders did close higher but are still bearish overall with corn continuing its bull trend. Demand is good for cattle and higher corn prices among other feed grains have kept the feeders down overall. Down the road a decrease in feeders should push beef higher and drag pork along with it. Hogs in the July contract should retrace up to the 7750 level which is right in the middle of heavy resistance.
Bellies continue to struggle looking lower and needing to close over 7500 basis the July contract to show signs of turning around. Today they had their lowest low since April 2nd.
INTEREST RATES:
Higher for the eurodollars, bonds and notes. All of the financials continue to look lower but have been retracing higher which could morph into buy signals.
INDICES:
Reports Today: Jobless Claims. A lower close for the nikkei while sharply lower for the cash and Dow futures along with the S&P’s and Nasdaq. The cash and Dow futures had their lowest lows and closes since March 17th. All of the indices with the exception of the Nikkei continue to look lower overall.
GRAINS:
Reports Today: Export Sales. Higher closes for Minneapolis, Kansas City and Chicago wheat along with corn, oats and bean meal while unchanged for rough rice, and lower for soybeans and bean oil. Minneapolis, KC and Chicago continue to look higher. Corn made another new contract high close while in a larger bull pennant than the one it broke out of today.
Oats also broke out of a small bull pennant to the upside only to form a larger one but still needing to close over 425. Rough rice settled unchanged but is still in a bull pennant trying to form a bottom. Soybeans settled slightly lower but are also still in a bull pennant looking very bullish while meal made another new contract high and close. Oil settled lower but still looks higher overall.
SOFTS 06/19
LUMBER: Higher closes today giving me a buy signal. Lumber has been still holding its lows while basing since the middle of April. There is heavy support down to the 240 area basis the July contract. Closing over 246 (247) was a bullish sign and now a close over 250 basis the July contract would be really nice and above 260 awfully good!
ORANGE JUICE: Orange juice closed lower and still has a double topped at 11700 basis the July contract. Also OJ seams to be losing some steam and needs to hold the 11500 area.
COCOA: Cocoa made a new contract high and close.
COTTON: Cotton spiked to its highest high since April 17th basis the July contract before selling off sharply closing lower. This is reversal type action and now should work down to the 70 level while forming a possible bottom.
COFFEE: Coffee closed lower this time but still should continue higher overall.
SUGAR: Sugar settled sharply higher making its highest high and close since May again. This market has been forming a possible bottom.
Rick Alexander has been a broker and analyst in the futures business for over thirty years. He is a Vice-President for Sales and Trading at the Zaner Group (www.zaner.com) a Chicago-based futures brokerage firm. Email Rick at ralexander@zaner.com or call.