What’s Up, What’s Down: RBOB Up, Lower for Crude and Heating Oil, Dollar Down

Comments for Monday, July 21

Looking Ahead to Today By Reflecting back at Friday’s price action


Higher for the RBOB, mixed for natural gas and lower for the crude along with the heating oil. The crude, heat and the RBOB are in topping formations, acting like their highs are already in place, while the natural gas looks like its bull run is over for now. Longs should liquidate, tighten stops or sell out on rallies or all of the above for now.


Higher for Minneapolis wheat while lower closes for rough rice, Kansas City and Chicago wheat along with soybeans, soymeal, bean oil, oats and corn All of wheat continue to look lower but have been holding their respective support areas. Corn settled sharply lower again while in a good support area that drops down to the 600 area basis the December contract. Oats also settled sharply lower again, (5th trading session in a row) now in a support area. Rough rice closed slightly lower this time as its daily ranges continue getting narrower and narrower, still looking weak overall. Beans, meal and oil closed sharply lower with the latter two giving me sell signals and bean oil close to a sell signal.


Higher closes for the Euro Fx, Swiss Franc, Canadian Dollar and Aussie Dollar while lower for the British Pound, Japanese Yen and Dollar index. The euros and francs continue to look higher overall while the yen still is in a strong support area and should hold if my buy signal is any good. However, the action of the last couple of trading sessions has hurt my buy formation but not a knockout. The Canadian Dollar closed higher, still looking to continue its upward momentum. The pound closed slightly lower, still looking strong overall while the Aussie Dollar is still in a bull pennant, also looking higher. The dollar settled lower, looking weak overall but is in a small bull pennant.


Higher for live and feeder cattle while lower for lean hogs and pork bellies. Cattle are now in a support area still looking very weak overall with key prices to hold at 9750(August), 10510(October) and 1075(December). Feeders finally closed sharply higher with corn continuing its plunge lower. The August contract has given me a buy signal but the October. Hogs continue looking higher but are in heavy resistance areas with gaps below making this a very difficult market for me to trade. There are 2 gaps in the August contract that one must be cognizant of also. Bellies, on the other hand, settled, however, looking very weal to me. Closed lower still looking very bearish overall.

SOFTS 07/21

LUMBER: Lumber settled higher but still in a very bearish looking market.

ORANGE JUICE: Orange juice closed higher again still in a strong support area but losing some steam. Still OJ continues to look higher overall at this time.

COCOA: Cocoa had a very weak close(lowest since June 2nd) right at the beginning of some support(around 2800 basis the September contract). No new positions in either direction should be taken at this time.

COTTON: Cotton settled slightly higher still in what looks like a bear triangle, looking to continue lower overall. The daily range has continued narrowing for the last week and a half.

COFFEE: Coffee closed slightly higher again holding a very good support area so far. There is good support from 14000 down to 13500 basis the September contract. Really no position should be taken either way at this time.

SUGAR: Sugar closed lower at the bottom of a good support area needing to hold the 1250 area basis the October contract.

Rick Alexander has been a broker and analyst in the futures business for over thirty years. He is a Vice-President for Sales and Trading at the Zaner Group (www.zaner.com) a Chicago-based futures brokerage firm. Email Rick at ralexander@zaner.com or call toll-free (888) 281-4158.