Whenever I See Something Like This, I Watch

My best guess…I have no best guess. I have absolutely no clue as to whether
this bounce goes for a few days or aborts itself today. I will just react as it
goes. What I do know is that the charts are a horror show…even with
yesterday’s action. Last night, I went through 197 group charts…both one-year
and five-year  and went through 2200 stocks. There remains a clear lack of sound
bases, a clear lack of leadership, a clear lack of breakouts and a clear lack of
everything I would need to get really excited. That said, this bounce could last
awhile because of how deeply oversold in price many stocks are.

I am laying off more shorting just for this second…of course, unless the
reversal reverses again for the umpteenth time.

I also want to make note of another technical indicator that is supposedly
screaming bottom. It is the ARMS INDEX. On
Monday, it read its third highest level ever at 5.92. ..bested only by Oct. 19,
1987, with a reading of 13.89 and Oct 27, 1997, with a reading of 8.84. These
high readings are supposed to mark the bottom of a decline. I have not been a
big follower of this indicator because I try to stay with my own
indicators…which have worked quite well for me. But whenever I see something
like this, I watch. I am always looking for things that have supposedly worked
in the past. You should too. I am somewhat skeptical though because last year
this number hit levels that were supposed to end the bear market. In fact, one
pundit called it the perfect indicator. Well, the bear market did not end. I
suspect all these secondary indicators that are supposed to turn the bear into a
bull are just good for turns in the market…nothing more. If this was a normal
bear market, I believe they would work better. It is becoming obvious to me that
this is a bear market much different than anything we are used to. So…just
keep watch the bouncing ball.