Which Type Of Person Are You…?

June 16, 2004
Chris Curran

Stock index futures opened Tuesday’s session
with upside gaps after the CPI showed the fastest rise in 3 years and gave some
reassurance to a skittish market that the Fed doesn’t need to hike rates
quickly.Â Also helping to buoy the equity market and give the bond market a nice
boost was Greenspan’s nomination testimony before the Senate Banking Committee.Â
He said that the economic recovery appears sustainable, although the budget
deficit needs to be reeled in, and that while inflation is not a serious
concern, the upward pressure on wages is just beginning.Â Putting on my “Greenspeak
decoder glasses,” it appeared to me that he’s trying to butter up the markets
for a 50-pt hike at the June meeting.Â Despite the ES holding the bulk of the
gains through the lunchtime lull, good broker selling came in late to shake the
trees.

The
September SP 500 futures closed Tuesdayâ€™s session with a gain of +8.25 points,
and finished in the top 1/2 of the daily range.Â Volume in the ES was estimated
at 745,000 contracts, heavier than Monday’s pace and above the daily average.Â
Looking at the daily chart, the ES posted a spinning top to close Monday’s gap
after bouncing off of its 10-day MA support, and effectively negating Monday’s
bearish action.Â On an intraday basis, the 60-min Gartley broke with the gap
open, and closed with the range defined by 60-min support and 30-min resistance.

Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â

The US
Dollar received no love on the CPI news and confirmed Monday’s key reversal
down.Â September bonds (ZB) closed sharply higher, in a move that was
exaggerated by buy stops, to settle right at 50-day MA resistance.Â The
Semiconductor Index (SOX) was able to close back above its 20-day MA, but still
faces a lot of overhead resistance.Â Also, keep in mind that the SOX is still
underwater for the year and from the end of Q1, making it vulnerable to the
quarter-end window dressing games.

Tomorrow is
the Wednesday before Friday’s quadruple-witching and during the past few options
expiry weeks, Wednesday has been the best day of action.Â The flow of economic
info continues with Building Permits and Housing Starts at 8:30 ET, Industrial
Production and Capacity Utilization at 9:15 ET, and the Fed’s Beige Book at 2:00
ET.

Random
Thoughts From Some of the Past Weeks’ Feedback

I get asked a lot why I do
this.Â I absolutely love this game (and it’s most definitely a game) and unless
I get hit by a truck, I’ll be trading for the next 50 years, whether I need the
money or not.

My comments lately
regarding success and accomplishment are directed at 3 types of individuals

1. Those who equate
money they don’t have with happiness they don’t have,

2. Those
who are drawn to trading for the wrong reasons, and

3. Those who are
successful by the world’s standards but feel enslaved or put on a never-ending
treadmill by their own relentless pursuit of some unobtainable standard.

In all cases, a reality check can help give the individual renewed purpose.Â
Honesty either gives you the strength to persevere knowing you do so for the
right reasons, or the strength to change course if that’s what your heart is
really telling you to do.Â As I always say, honesty with oneself can be painful
in the short run, but a blessing in the long run.

It’s interesting how responses to my views on accomplishment and success tend to
fall into two different categories. Many of those who are successful by their
own standards will agree with me that the true measure of fulfillment is
internal, regardless of external appearance or reward.Â On the other side of the
coin, many of those who tend to view themselves as unsuccessful (and again this
is completely a subjective thing, as many accomplished people see themselves as
failures) tend to believe that such views are copouts, excuses, or justification
for falling short.