Why I Ignore The Noise

Jobs, economic
data, global concerns…in terms of trading and seeking longer-term reversals,
my attitude toward all of this noise continues to be one of “whatever.”  
Despite
CNBC’s cheerleading to the contrary (this morning’s press giddiness ranked right
up there with past gems), and in the spirit of continuing our recurring theme of
not being interested in lower-risk longer term longs UNTIL we turn into a tested
hourly and preferably daily uptrend, long trades at these levels continue to be
scalps only into the larger downtrend supports.

This morning’s action and charts below once again prove the power of the hourly
pattern and our “trust until broken” mantra. Will the hourly ultimately break to
the upside?  Of course, as nothing lasts forever and the spiking VIX and
oversold momentum readings continue to put us on alert for possible
reversals. However, if you know me by now, the only longer term lower-risk entry
I’m interested in aside from intraday scalps is after the hourly has proven
itself. Anything else is spitting in the wind, which, while OK for intraday long
scalps into resistance if one steps aside before it flies back in your face
(sorry for the descriptive tone, but it hopefully illustrates my point),
continues to be premature hopeful trading.

As far as intraday trades go, 13-minute continuation triggers with three-minute
micro triggers within the context of the hourly and daily downtrends have
remained valid, albeit with a few stops given the choppy conditions and
emotional trade. Given the recent chop, trade management is paramount in terms
of ensuring entries are dang close to trade support premises to provide tight
stops which can, in turn, be offset by even modest winners.

With respect to the crystal ball news interpretation, I’ll continue to leave
that to others who are seeking an audience desiring to hear good and hopeful
news vs. objective technical analysis.

ES (S&P)         
Friday February 7,  2003  11:30 AM ET            
NQ
(Nasdaq)


Moving Avg Legend:
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15MA
60-Min 15MA

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Good Trading and
Have a Great Weekend!

Don Miller

** Trust Until Broken
and Tested

 

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