Wild Day On The Street, But The Closing Numbers Don’t Tell The Story
Stocks were lower this
Election Day as crude oil closed below $50 for the first time in a month.
The market hit an air pocket down at 2:45 PM when
Drudgereport.com posted numbers showing Kerry was leading in several swing
states.
America Online
(
TWX |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) will cut 700 jobs, the Washington Post
reported. Applied Materials
(
AMAT |
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Chart |
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PowerRating) said sales to China have more
than doubled to $1 billion.
The Challenger job survey showed employers
planned to cut 100,000 jobs in October. September saw 101,840; it was the worst
two months since January/February 2003. Cuts were most severe in telecom.
We may be in for a rally no matter who wins the
election. Research compiled by David Kotok of Cumberland Advisors indicates that
since WWII, in the three months after an election, the S&P rose 6% if a Democrat
beat a Republican incumbent and 2% if a Republican incumbent prevailed.
ISI’s Tom Gallagher, however, says that a post-election rally depends on a
pre-election sell-off. It’s important to point out that the resolution of the
2000 election in December did not cause stocks to rise. In fact, for the last 4
months of 2000, stocks fell, and they continued to fall when it became clear
that Q4 2000 earnings would be disappointing. Just goes to show: it’s earnings
that count.
| Dow | -18.66 | 10035.73 |
| S&P 500 | -0.07 | 1130.58 |
| Nasdaq | +4.92 | 1984.79 |
Strong sectors were: Airlines
(
XAL.X |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)
+3.79%, Brokers
(
XBD.X |
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Chart |
News |
PowerRating) +1.07%, Internet
(
GIN.X |
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Chart |
News |
PowerRating) 0.90%.
Weak sectors were: Gold
(
XAU.X |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) -2.38%, Oil Services
(
OSX.X |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) -2.40%, Utilities
(
UTY.X |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) -1.76%.
The dollar was +0.28 at
85.28
Gold was -6.10 at 419.70
Crude Oil was -0.48 at 49.65
1.83 billion on the Nasdaq.
Market breadth was positive.
| NYSE | Issues | |
| Advancing | 1769 | Up Vol 721 |
| Declining | 1560 | Down Vol 756 |
| Ratio | 1.13 | 1.04 |
| Nasdaq |
||
| Advancing | 1404 | Up Vol 890 |
| Declining | 1691 | Down Vol 786 |
| Ratio | 1.20 | 1.13 |
Stocks in the News
National Semi
(
NSM |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) cut its quarterly revenue forecast, citing weak
demand and high inventory.
Forest Labs
(
FRX |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) cut its 2005 outlook, citing generic Celexa.
Clorox
(
CL |
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Chart |
News |
PowerRating) beat by 0.03.
Emerson Electric
(
EMR |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) beat by 005.
Masco
(
MAS |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) beat by 0.02.
Teva Pharmaceuticals
(
TEVA |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) was lowered at Bank of America to ‘neutral’
from ‘buy.’
Brice Wightman