Will Fiscal Restraint Mean Lower Growth Rates?
BOND MARKET RECAP
12/20/2004
March Bonds closed up 0-04 at 112-15. This was
0-02 up from the low and 0-12 off the high.
March 10 Yr Treasury Notes finished up 0-045 at
112-225, 0-015 off the high and 0-015 up from the low.
The Treasury market started out higher
managed to add to the gains into a slightly better than expected Leading
Indicators report and then settle back down from the highs into the close. The
Leaders came in up +.2% and that was moderately above the expectations of -.1%.
Later in the session a Fed source suggested that companies are starting to gain
pricing power and that could be a hint at rising inflationary pressures. The
promise of fiscal restraint by the Bush Administration might have been cause for
the early rally but the market will need to see proof that Washington will
actually get around to reducing the US deficit. Seeing such a significant
decline in energy prices also probably served to undermine Treasuries during the
action Monday.
Technical Outlook
BONDS (MAR) 12/21/2004: Daily stochastics turning
lower from overbought levels is bearish and will tend to reinforce a downside
break especially if near-term support is penetrated. The cross over and close
above the 18-day moving average indicates the longer-term trend has turned up.
The market has a slightly positive tilt with the close over the swing pivot. The
next downside objective is now at 111-31. The next area of resistance is around
112-30 and 113-06, while 1st support hits today at 112-11 and below there at
111-31.
TNOTES (MAR) 12/21/2004: The major trend could be
turning up with the close back above the 40-day moving average. Momentum studies
trending lower from overbought levels is a bearish indicator and would tend to
reinforce lower price action. The market now above the 18-day moving average
suggests the longer-term trend has turned up. The market has a slightly positive
tilt with the close over the swing pivot. The next downside objective is now at
111-265. The next area of resistance is around 112-070 and 112-110, while 1st
support hits today at 111-310 and below there at 111-265.
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STOCK INDICES RECAP
12/20/2004
March S&P finished up 0.4 at 1198.7, 7.9 off the
high and 3.5 up from the low.
March S&P E-Mini closed up 0.75 at 1199. This was
3.75 up from the low and 7.75 off the high.
March Dow closed up 8 at 10685. This was 28 up
from the low and 55 off the high.
March Dow E-Mini finished up 9 at 10686, 55 off
the high and 30 up from the low.
The stock market once again traded on both sides
of unchanged but did attempt to rally off the slightly better than expected
leading indicators. However, the market continued to post some poor technical
action and failed to get much of benefit from a significant slide in energy
prices. We suspect that the continued slide in the Dollar undermined sentiment
as did a lower US Dollar. Some traders even suggested that talk of fiscal
restraint in the US might end up meaning lower future growth rates. In short,
the market was looking at the glass as half empty instead of half full.
Technical Outlook
S&P 500 (MAR) 12/21/2004: Stochastics turning
bearish at overbought levels will tend to support lower prices if support levels
are broken. The cross over and close above the 18-day moving average is an
indication the longer-term trend has turned positive. The market has a slightly
positive tilt with the close over the swing pivot. The next downside objective
is now at 1188.50. The next area of resistance is around 1204.60 and 1211.30,
while 1st support hits today at 1193.20 and below there at 1188.50.
SP EMINI (MAR) 12/21/2004: Momentum studies are
trending lower from high levels which should accelerate a move lower on a break
below the 1st swing support. The market now above the 18-day moving average
suggests the longer-term trend has turned up. It is a slightly negative
indicator that the close was lower than the pivot swing number. The next
downside objective is 1188.50. The next area of resistance is around 1204.75 and
1211.50, while 1st support hits today at 1193.25 and below there at 1188.50.
NASDAQ (MAR) 12/21/2004: Negative momentum
studies in the neutral zone will tend to reinforce lower price action. The close
below the 18-day moving average is an indication the longer-term trend has
turned down. It is a slightly negative indicator that the close was under the
swing pivot. The next downside objective is now at 1578.00. The next area of
resistance is around 1619.00 and 1636.00, while 1st support hits today at
1590.00 and below there at 1578.00.
MINIDOW (MAR) 12/21/2004: The rally brought the
market to a new contract high. Momentum studies are trending higher but have
entered overbought levels. The major trend could be turning up with the close
back above the 18-day moving average. It is a mildly bullish indicator that the
market closed over the pivot swing number. The near-term upside target is at
10777. The next area of resistance is around 10729 and 10777, while 1st support
hits today at 10645 and below there at 10608.
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CURRENCY MARKET RECAP
12/20/2004
March US Dollar finished down 48 at 8175, 45 off
the high and 7 up from the low.
March Euro finished up 1.03 at 134.01, 0.18 off
the high and 0.18 up from the low.
March Euro Dollar closed down 0.015 at 97.07.
This was 0.005 up from the low and 0.03 off the high.
March Canadian Dollar closed down 0.16 at 81.32.
This was 0.17 up from the low and 0.2 off the high.
March British Pound finished up 0.84 at 193.72,
0.21 off the high and 0.12 up from the low.
March Swiss closed up 0.7 at 87.38. This was 0.1
up from the low and 0.27 off the high.
March Japanese Yen closed up 0.29 at 96.64. This
was 0.18 up from the low and 0.17 off the high.
The Dollar continued to show vulnerable action
despite the fact that the US scheduled numbers were better than expected and the
Bush Administration is talking budget restraint. However, the market isn’t
buying into the budget thing and more will have to be done to alter
international opinions. Even after a US Fed member suggested that the low Dollar
is serving to curb imports and lift exports the trade doesn’t seem the least bit
interested in the Dollar. Therefore, one has to conclude that the trend in the
Dollar is down and will remain that way until something significant changes.
Seeing the Canadian down in the face of moderate US Dollar declines seems to
suggest that the Canadian is in significant trouble.
Technical Outlook
YEN (MAR) 12/21/2004: The daily stochastics have
crossed over up which is a bullish indication. Positive momentum studies in the
neutral zone will tend to reinforce higher price action. The major trend has
turned down with the cross over back below the 18-day moving average. With the
close over the 1st swing resistance number, the market is in a moderately
positive position. The near-term upside target is at 96.98. The next area of
resistance is around 96.81 and 96.98, while 1st support hits today at 96.47 and
below there at 96.29.
EURO (MAR) 12/21/2004: The downside crossover (9
below 18) of the moving averages suggests a developing short-term downtrend.
Momentum studies trending lower at mid-range could accelerate a price break if
support levels are broken. The major trend could be turning up with the close
back above the 18-day moving average. The gap up on the day session chart gave a
bullish indicator and more follow through could be seen this session. The market
has a bullish tilt coming into today’s trade with the close above the 2nd swing
resistance. The next downside objective is now at 133.65. The next area of
resistance is around 134.19 and 134.37, while 1st support hits today at 133.83
and below there at 133.65.
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PRECIOUS METALS RECAP
12/20/2004
February Gold closed up 0.7 at 443.6. This was
1.3 up from the low and 2 off the high.
March Silver finished up 0.062 at 6.865, 0.09 off
the high and 0.045 up from the low.
January Platinum closed up 5.7 at 842.8. This was
2.8 up from the low and 3.7 off the high.
The gold and silver markets showed some
divergence for most of the session Monday and that usually isn’t a real positive
sign. In fact with the Dollar lower and looking prepared to fall even further
the bull camp in gold should be very discouraged. Furthermore, both gold and
silver saw documentation of a significant paring down of the net spec and fund
long position and yet that revelation didn’t seem to provide much in the way of
buying incentive. Some disappointed longs suggested that seeing the US talk
about fiscal restraint might actually lower the odds of an international
currency crisis and that is negative to gold. Some even suggested that lower
energy prices might have undermined gold but we haven’t seen that close of a
correlation to that issue recently.
Technical Outlook
SILVER (MAR) 12/21/2004: Momentum studies are
declining, but have fallen to oversold levels. The close below the 18-day moving
average is an indication the longer-term trend has turned down. It is a mildly
bullish indicator that the market closed over the pivot swing number. The next
downside objective is 674.2. The next area of resistance is around 693.3 and
701.1, while 1st support hits today at 679.8 and below there at 674.2.
GOLD (FEB) 12/21/2004: The crossover up in the
daily stochastics is a bullish signal. Stochastics are at mid-range but trending
higher, which should reinforce a move higher if resistance levels are taken out.
The major trend has turned down with the cross over back below the 18-day moving
average. It is a mildly bullish indicator that the market closed over the pivot
swing number. The near-term upside target is at 447.0. The next area of
resistance is around 445.2 and 447.0, while 1st support hits today at 442.0 and
below there at 440.5.
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COPPER MARKET RECAP
12/20/2004
March Copper finished up 2.10 at 142.05, 0.05 off
the high and 1.85 up from the low.
The copper market managed another new high for
the move Monday and did so off a lower US Dollar, favorable US economic
information and upbeat Asian talk. The fact that China move to implement an
export tax on aluminum and Goldman Sachs labeled zinc as a big prospective
market in 2005 seems to give copper a favorable longer term outlook. We also
think that the recent COT report showed a slightly smaller than expected small
spec and fund long position and that gave more bulls the confidence to pay up
for copper so much above the December lows. Also support prices Monday were
suggestions from a large copper mining company that 2005 copper production would
be slightly lower due to problems at one of its facilities. In short the tight
conditions in copper seem to be extending into the coming year.
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ENERGY MARKET RECAP
12/20/2004
February Crude Oil closed down 0.79 at 45.78.
This was 0.68 up from the low and 0.42 off the high.
February Heating Oil closed down 3.90 at 140.06.
This was 1.06 up from the low and 2.14 off the high.
February Unleaded Gas finished down 3.22 at
119.00, 2.20 off the high and 0.40 up from the low.
February Natural Gas finished down 0.51 at 7.02,
0.22 off the high and 0.09 up from the low.
January Propane closed down 0.01 at 0.82. This
was equal to the low and equal to the high.
The energy market really surprised some in the
trade with a lower pulse on Monday. With extremely cold temps being seen in a
large portion of the US ahead of the actual kick off of winter we are not
surprised that prices forged such an impressive run last week. However, we are a
little surprised that the market gave back such a large portion of the rally in
the action today as little has changed from last week and tensions in Iraq look
to remain just below the boiling level. We also have to wonder if the holiday’s
increase the chance of even more violence and if the colder than normal weather
is going to be extended even further. Some suggest that the transfer of Yukos
assets (even under the cloak of Soviet Style politics) is something that might
lower the risk of production problems but we are not ready to buy into the
argument.
Technical Outlook
CRUDE OIL (FEB) 12/21/2004: Momentum studies are
trending higher from mid-range, which should support a move higher if resistance
levels are penetrated. The cross over and close above the 18-day moving average
indicates the longer-term trend has turned up. The market’s close below the
pivot swing number is a mildly negative setup. The near-term upside target is at
46.81. The next area of resistance is around 46.33 and 46.81, while 1st support
hits today at 45.23 and below there at 44.62.
UNLEADED (FEB) 12/21/2004: Momentum studies are
rising from mid-range, which could accelerate a move higher if resistance levels
are penetrated. The market back below the 18-day moving average suggests the
longer-term trend could be turning down. The market setup is somewhat negative
with the close under the 1st swing support. The next upside target is 122.05.
The next area of resistance is around 120.30 and 122.05, while 1st support hits
today at 117.70 and below there at 116.85.
HEATING OIL (FEB) 12/21/2004: Stochastics are at
mid-range but trending higher, which should reinforce a move higher if
resistance levels are taken out. The market now above the 18-day moving average
suggests the longer-term trend has turned up. The market’s close below the 1st
swing support number suggests a moderately negative setup for today. The next
upside target is 143.53. The next area of resistance is around 141.66 and
143.53, while 1st support hits today at 138.46 and below there at 137.13.
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CORN MARKET RECAP
12/20/2004
March Corn finished up 2 at 206 1/2, 1 1/2
off the high and 1 up from the low. May Corn closed up 2 at 213 3/4. This was
3/4 up from the low and 1 1/2 off the high.
News that funds were net short a new all-time
record high of near 107,000 contracts as of December 14th along with solid gains
in the other grains supported an active trade early in the session with fund
short-covering the driving force. Funds were noted buyers of near 5000 contracts
on the session. Export news is slow to develop and cash basis levels were mixed
with some locations under light pressure from a bump in producer selling. Weekly
export inspections came in at 38.75 million bushels as compared with trade
expectations at 35-40 million bushels. Weekly shipments need to average 39.44
million bushels to reach the current USDA projection. Cumulative shipments have
reached 27.3% of the USDA forecast as compared with 30.7% on average for this
time of the year. Support for March Corn comes in at 205 1/2 and 204 3/4 with
resistance at 207 3/4 and 209 1/2.
Technical Outlook
CORN (MAR) 12/21/2004: Stochastics are at
mid-range but trending higher, which should reinforce a move higher if
resistance levels are taken out. The major trend could be turning up with the
close back above the 18-day moving average. The gap upmove on the day session
chart is a bullish indicator for trend. A positive setup occurred with the close
over the 1st swing resistance. The next upside objective is 209. The next area
of resistance is around 207 3/4 and 209, while 1st support hits today at 205 1/4
and below there at 204 1/4.
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SOY COMPLEX RECAP
12/20/2004
January Soybeans finished up 1 1/4 at 550, 16 off
the high and 3 up from the low. March Soybeans closed up 4 1/2 at 548 1/2. This
was 4 up from the low and 12 1/2 off the high.
March Soymeal closed up 0.8 at 159.7. This was
1.0 up from the low and 5.3 off the high.
March Soybean Oil finished up 0.28 at 20.97, 0.18
off the high and 0.1 up from the low.
News of increased demand from China along with
significant short-covering from fund traders supported the early sharp gains
with funds noted buyers of near 6000 contracts. The close was 12 1/2 cents off
the highs of the day and nearly 10 cents under the opening which is a bearish
short-term technical development. The USDA announced a sale of 118,000 tons of
US soybeans to China which helped support the active short-covering trend from
funds. The weekend COT report with options showed that speculators were holding
a net short position of near 27,000 contracts as of December 14th which helped
support. The firm basis at the gulf on Friday helped support the start of the
recovery bounce but basis levels were down slightly this morning in response to
talk of increased producer selling. Weekly export inspections came in at 37.71
million bushels as compared with trade expectations at 25-30 million bushels.
Weekly shipments need to average 14.7 million bushels to reach the current USDA
projection. Cumulative shipments have reached 46.3% of the USDA forecast as
compared with 43.1% on average for this time of the year. Support for March
soybeans comes in at 547 3/4 and 544 1/2 with resistance at 558 and 567.
Technical Outlook
BEANS (JAN) 12/21/2004: Positive momentum studies
in the neutral zone will tend to reinforce higher price action. The major trend
could be turning up with the close back above the 18-day moving average. The
close over the pivot swing is a somewhat positive setup. The near-term upside
target is at 572 1/4. The next area of resistance is around 559 1/2 and 572 1/4,
while 1st support hits today at 540 1/2 and below there at 534 1/4.
MEAL (JAN) 12/21/2004: Momentum studies trending
lower at mid-range should accelerate a move lower if support levels are taken
out. The major trend could be turning up with the close back above the 18-day
moving average. With the close higher than the pivot swing number, the market is
in a slightly bullish posture. The next downside target is now at 155.1. The
next area of resistance is around 163.0 and 166.6, while 1st support hits today
at 157.2 and below there at 155.1.
BEANOIL (JAN) 12/21/2004: The market now above
the 60-day moving average suggests the longer-term trend has turned up. Momentum
studies are rising from mid-range, which could accelerate a move higher if
resistance levels are penetrated. The market now above the 18-day moving average
suggests the longer-term trend has turned up. If yesterday’s gap higher on the
day session chart holds, additional buying could develop this session. The
market setup is supportive for early gains with the close over the 1st swing
resistance. The near-term upside target is at 21.14. The next area of resistance
is around 20.99 and 21.14, while 1st support hits today at 20.75 and below there
at 20.65.
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WHEAT MARKET RECAP
12/20/2004
March Wheat finished up 1 3/4 at 306, 3 1/2 off the high and 1
up from the low. May Wheat closed up 1 1/2 at 313. This was 1/2 up from the low
and 4 off the high.
Crop concerns due to the forecast of very cold
weather into Thursday morning and the potential impact on young wheat plants
without snow cover helped support the solid gains early in the session. The
close near the lows and below the opening is a slightly negative short-term
technical development. Funds were noted buyers of near 1200 contracts into the
mid-session. However, talk of snow cover across the southern Midwest on
Wednesday ahead of the cold blast helped to limit the buying support from
weather. Talk of less soft red planted acreage in the southern Midwest due to
the wet weather in the fall added to the positive tone. In addition to supply
concerns, news that Pakistan is tendering for 400,000 tons of milling wheat and
expectations of another 100,000 ton tender soon added to the positive tone.
Traders still await news on the Iraq tender to buy 100,000-150,000 tons of
optional origin wheat for Jan-Feb shipment. With the weekend COT report with
options showing a record net short position of the fund trader, the market
remains vulnerable to short-covering. Weekly export inspections came in at 16
million bushels as compared with trade expectations at 10-15 million bushels.
China shipped nearly 3 million bushels. Weekly shipments need to average 16.3
million bushels to reach the current USDA projection. Cumulative shipments have
reached 61.1% of the USDA forecast as compared with 58.7% on average for this
time of the year. Support for March wheat comes in at 303 3/4 and 302 1/4 with
308 3/4 and 315 1/2 as next resistance.
Technical Outlook
WHEAT (MAR) 12/21/2004: Positive momentum studies
in the neutral zone will tend to reinforce higher price action. The cross over
and close above the 18-day moving average is an indication the longer-term trend
has turned positive. The market has a slightly positive tilt with the close over
the swing pivot. The near-term upside objective is at 311. The next area of
resistance is around 308 1/4 and 311, while 1st support hits today at 303 3/4
and below there at 302 1/4.
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LIVE CATTLE RECAP
12/20/2004
February Live Cattle closed down 0.12 at 89.72.
This was 0.12 up from the low and 0.77 off the high.
January Feeder Cattle finished up 0.07 at 103.32,
0.57 off the high and 0.17 up from the low.
After moving to the highest level in two months,
February cattle 12 lower on the session and down 77 from the highs of the day.
The early strength was triggered by the positive news from the USDA report on
Friday, talk of snow and cold for the plains this week and talk that cash should
trade near $88.00 this week. The overbought condition and fears of the hefty
supply of market-ready cattle in the next month or so helped trigger some of the
selling. The close below the opening after the early surge higher is a bearish
technical development. Boxed-beef cut-out values at mid-session were down $.17
to $138.69 as compared with 141.36 last week at this time. Slaughter came in at
125,000 head as compared with trade expectations at 118,000-129,000.
Technical Outlook
CATTLE (FEB) 12/21/2004: Stochastics are at
mid-range but trending higher, which should reinforce a move higher if
resistance levels are taken out. The major trend could be turning up with the
close back above the 18-day moving average. The daily closing price reversal
down puts the market on the defensive. The market has a slightly positive tilt
with the close over the swing pivot. The next upside target is 90.770. The next
area of resistance is around 90.170 and 90.770, while 1st support hits today at
89.300 and below there at 89.020.
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LEAN HOGS RECAP
12/20/2004
February Lean Hogs closed down 0.75 at 73.10.
This was 0.10 up from the low and 1.15 off the high.
February Pork Bellies finished down 0.50 at
97.27, 1.87 off the high and 0.22 up from the low.
After two-sided trade early, February hogs closed
moderately lower on the session as expected weakness in the cash market and a
lack of bullish cash news except for the potential weather disruptions this week
helped to trigger the correction. The 360 point bounce off of the lows from last
week helped correct the oversold condition and the sharp drop in cash markets
along with the futures rally has taken the discount out of the futures. The CME
2-day lean index for the period ending December 16th was reported at 71.66, down
$1.27 on the session. Slaughter came in at 401,000 head as compared with trade
expectations at 398,000-408,000.
Technical Outlook
HOGS (FEB) 12/21/2004: Positive momentum studies
in the neutral zone will tend to reinforce higher price action. The market back
below the 18-day moving average suggests the longer-term trend could be turning
down. The daily closing price reversal down is a negative indicator for prices.
The market’s close below the 1st swing support number suggests a moderately
negative setup for today. The near-term upside target is at 74.600. The next
area of resistance is around 73.720 and 74.600, while 1st support hits today at
72.500 and below there at 72.120.
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COCOA MARKET RECAP
12/20/2004
March Cocoa finished down 9 at 1591, 9 off the
high and 16 up from the low.
The Ivory Coast crop continues to flow even if
the flow is slow and that has given the bears a slight near term edge. We also
think that the violation of chart support levels has given the bear confidence
that they might not be able to maintain. The Ivory Coast product export tally is
also running below year ago levels and that means that both raw cocoa and
product flow from the world’s largest producer is running behind. Even a
moderately lower US Dollar failed to provide much support to the cocoa market
and that is indicative of a short term negative outlook.
Technical Outlook
COCOA (MAR) 12/21/2004: Negative momentum studies
in the neutral zone will tend to reinforce lower price action. The close under
the 18-day moving average indicates the longer-term trend could be turning down.
The market tilt is slightly negative with the close under the pivot. The next
downside objective is 1565. The next area of resistance is around 1603 and 1614,
while 1st support hits today at 1579 and below there at 1565.
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COFFEE MARKET RECAP
12/20/2004
March Coffee closed up 2.50 at 106.80. This was
2.20 up from the low and 0.95 off the high.
March coffee closed 250 higher on the session and
pushed into new contract highs for the second day in a row as the market lacked
the selling interest from speculators, and especially from producers to even
trade lower on the session. London was down early but recovered to higher on the
day into the New York opening. Futures moved to the highest level since July of
2000 for the nearby contract. Fund traders continue to buy coffee and the
uptrend has squeezed many commercial traders who are sitting on a record net
short position. CSCE daily exchange deliverable stocks fell 1,464 bags to 4.535
million bags with 36,448 bags pending review.
Technical Outlook
COFFEE (MAR) 12/21/2004: The market rallied to a
new contract high. Rising stochastics at overbought levels warrant some caution
for bulls. The market now above the 18-day moving average suggests the
longer-term trend has turned up. The market has a slightly positive tilt with
the close over the swing pivot. The next upside target is 109.60. With a reading
over 70, the 9-day RSI is approaching overbought levels. The next area of
resistance is around 108.35 and 109.60, while 1st support hits today at 105.25
and below there at 103.35.
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SUGAR MARKET RECAP
12/20/2004
March Sugar closed up 0.24 at 8.88. This was 0.31
up from the low and 0.07 off the high.
March sugar closed 24 higher on the session as a
lack of new selling interest on the lower opening, trade house buying and then
active fund buying helped support the solid gains and move to the highest level
since December 2nd. Bearish supply news helped pressure futures early with
German analyst FO Licht indicating that European sugar output for the 2004/2005
season could be up near 28.2 million tons as compared with 26.479 million tons
last year. Good growing and harvest weather helped support the adjustment
higher. Traders remain hopeful that end user buying activity in the cash market
will remain active over the near-term due to pent-up demand to extend coverage
recently. A hefty speculative net long position leaves futures vulnerable to a
sell-off but a lack of fund selling was seen as one of the supportive factors.
Technical Outlook
SUGAR (MAR) 12/21/2004: The major trend could be
turning up with the close back above the 60-day moving average. The crossover up
in the daily stochastics is a bullish signal. Momentum studies are rising from
mid-range, which could accelerate a move higher if resistance levels are
penetrated. The market now above the 18-day moving average suggests the
longer-term trend has turned up. The market has a bullish tilt coming into
today’s trade with the close above the 2nd swing resistance. The near-term
upside objective is at 9.20. The next area of resistance is around 9.07 and
9.20, while 1st support hits today at 8.69 and below there at 8.44.
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COTTON MARKET RECAP
12/20/2004
March Cotton finished down 0.14 at 43.99, 0.51
off the high and 0.09 up from the low.
Mild support from the trade and continued buying
from speculators (thought to be short-covering) supported the early bounce to
the highest level since December 1st but when the short-covering slowed, local
selling emerged to push futures 14 lower into the close and the close was 51
points off of the highs of the day. Certified exchange stocks deliverable
against the exchange totaled 50,233 bales as of December 17th from 49,072 bales
as of December 16th and 46,545 bales on the 15th. A lack of new export news and
hefty supplies to absorb on the world market helped pressure. Pakistan is
expected to harvest a record crop for the 2004/2005 season at near 13.2 million
bales from 10 million last year and from the previous record high of 12.8
million bales in 1992/93.
Technical Outlook
COTTON (MAR) 12/21/2004: Stochastics are at
mid-range but trending higher, which should reinforce a move higher if
resistance levels are taken out. The major trend could be turning up with the
close back above the 18-day moving average. The daily closing price reversal
down is a negative indicator for prices. The market has a slightly positive tilt
with the close over the swing pivot. The next upside objective is 44.69. The
next area of resistance is around 44.29 and 44.69, while 1st support hits today
at 43.69 and below there at 43.50.