Working It Off
The Qs have spent most of the
morning working off its hourly overbought condition which
was created at Wednesday’s close due largely to ORCL’s late-day earnings
affirmation which, yet again, has end-of-day longs underwater. (I’ve lost track
of how many days this year end-of-day positions have been red the next morning —
on both the long and short sides — but suffice it to say, that holding for next-day
follow-through momentum continues to be a very high-risk bet, especially with
gaps often taking out protective trails.) An early inverted cup and handle on
the 13-minute chart has been a helpful early guide.
Yet for longer-term bulls, all may not be lost, as such a move at a minimum
was critical if this barge is to turn longer term. So here’s where we’re at on
our key time frames, which collectively presents very interesting possibilities.
Weekly: Downtrending
with strength price vs. momentum divergenceDaily: Ditto,
which sets the hourly up as perhaps the key longer-term micro trendHourly: On
the fence with respect to trend, with the market having (momentarily) worked
off its overbought condition13-Minute: Downtrending
with key intraday downtrend support (long resistance) at approximately 29.20.
Now keep in mind I am not saying we’re at a key
bottom, as we’ll all know only after the fact. And we remain in downtrends on
every key chart which must be respected. What I am saying is that we’re
at a very interesting crossroads. The patterns, along with increasing bearish
sentiment and spiking volatility indices (QQV.X approaching pre-CSCO spike
highs), have me looking for any clues which might suggest a more lasting turn.
In the meantime, respect the intraday trends, which as always will keep you on
the right side as you contemplate the bigger picture. And with INTC’s earnings
update scheduled for after today’s close, anything can happen.
12:00 P.M. ET
Good Trading!