You Know The Drill
What Monday’s Action Tells
You
It was gap up for the major indices in the
first
hour, with the SPX
(
$SPX.X |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) closing at 1042.29 on just the opening
bar.
It traded up from there with no real contra move to 1049.15 by 11:15 a.m.
ET,
and the day was over as the major indices then went sideways until a 3:00
p.m.
bump up to the 1052.08 intraday high and close, which was +1.6% on the day.
The
Dow
(
$INDU |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) was +1.2%, with the Nasdaq
(
$COMPQ |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) and
(
QQQ |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)s
each
+2.8%.
NYSE volume was just 1.3 billion on the early
holiday surge, and that is the average NYSE volume for the past three weeks.
The
volume in both the
(
SPY |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) and
(
DIA |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) was below average, while the QQQs
traded 92 million shares, which is not big, on a +2.8% day. However, more
importantly, the NYSE volume ratio was 86 and breadth very positive at +1614
as
traders got yet another move off the 50-day EMA to play with, but more so
with
individual stocks than the futures or index proxies because of how they
gapped
and went sideways until the little mini-bump at 3:00 p.m.
The major sectors were all green, led by the
(
SMH |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)
+3.5%, RTH +2.4% and CYC +1.9%, that’s exactly what we like to see. The brokers
were pretty much in line with the SPX, and on the eclectic side, the
(
BBH |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)s
were +2.4% (always a thrill a minute).
| size=2> |
Tuesday
11/18 |
Wednesday
11/19 |
Thursday
11/20 |
Friday
11/21 |
Monday
11/24 |
| color=#0000ff>Index | |||||
| color=#0000ff>SPX | |||||
| color=#0000ff>High |
1048.77
|
1043.95
|
1046.48
|
1037.57
|
1052.08
|
| color=#0000ff>Low |
1034
|
1034.15
|
1033.42
|
1031.20
|
1035.28
|
| color=#0000ff>Close |
1034.15
|
1042.44
|
1033.65
|
1035.28
|
1052.08
|
| color=#0000ff>% |
-0.9
|
+0.8
|
-0.8
|
+0.2
|
+1.6
|
| color=#0000ff>Range |
14.8
|
9.8
|
13.1
|
6.4
|
16.8
|
| color=#0000ff>% Range |
1
|
85
|
2
|
64
|
100
|
| color=#0000ff>INDU |
9624
|
9690
|
9615
|
9629
|
9748
|
| color=#0000ff>% |
-0.9
|
+0.7
|
-0.7
|
+0.9
|
+1.2
|
| color=#0000ff>Nasdaq |
1882
|
1900
|
1882
|
1894
|
1947
|
| color=#0000ff>% |
-1.5
|
+1.0
|
-0.9
|
+0.7
|
+2.8
|
| color=#0000ff>QQQ |
33.84
|
34.21
|
33.88
|
34.25
|
35.19
|
| color=#0000ff>% |
-2.3
|
+1.0
|
-1.0
|
+1.1
|
+2.8
|
| color=#0000ff>NYSE | |||||
| color=#0000ff>T. VOL |
1.31
|
1.32
|
1.29
|
1.26
|
1.30
|
| color=#0000ff>U. VOL |
392
|
845
|
361
|
729
|
1.10
|
| color=#0000ff>D. VOL |
911
|
458
|
922
|
504
|
185
|
| color=#0000ff>VR |
30
|
65
|
28
|
59
|
86
|
| color=#0000ff>4 MA |
33
|
37
|
35
|
46
|
59
|
| color=#0000ff>5 RSI |
25
|
43
|
32
|
36
|
53
|
| color=#0000ff>ADV |
1358
|
1938
|
1259
|
1925
|
2452
|
| color=#0000ff>DEC |
1907
|
1298
|
2005
|
1288
|
838
|
| color=#0000ff>A-D |
-549
|
+640
|
-746
|
+637
|
+1614
|
| color=#0000ff>4 MA |
-480
|
-437
|
-489
|
-5
|
+536
|
| color=#0000ff>SECTORS | |||||
| color=#0000ff>SMH |
-1.6
|
+1.7
|
-2.3
|
+1.5
|
+3.5
|
| color=#0000ff>BKX |
-1.2
|
+0.7
|
-0.5
|
+0.8
|
+1.0
|
| color=#0000ff>XBD |
-1.2
|
-0.3
|
-1.1
|
+1.2
|
+1.3
|
| color=#0000ff>RTH |
-0.7
|
+0.7
|
0
|
+0.2
|
+2.4
|
| color=#0000ff>CYC |
-0.8
|
+0.4
|
-0.6
|
+0.1
|
+1.9
|
| color=#0000ff>PPH |
+0.2
|
+0.5
|
-2.1
|
-1.9
|
+1.5
|
| color=#0000ff>OIH |
-0.6
|
-0.8
|
-0.5
|
-1.4
|
+.09
|
| color=#0000ff>BBH |
-1.9
|
+1.2
|
-0.3
|
+0.1
|
+2.4
|
| color=#0000ff>TLT |
+0.7
|
-1.1
|
+1.0
|
+.06
|
-0.8
|
| color=#0000ff>XAU |
+4.6
|
+.05
|
-0.9
|
+0.2
|
-1.6
|
Yesterday’s market action clearly took some short-covering
bodies, along with regular buyers, in front of the holiday with the up bias
perception, and sometime reality, depending on what kind of market it is. One
bias that should hold true this year is that there hasn’t been a losing year
in the third year (pre-election years) since 1939 regardless of which political
hacks are in office, about the only thing they haven’t been able to screw up.
For Active
Traders
Yesterday’s action had the SPX close above
the
last five days’ highs and six closes and once again above all of the daily
EMAs.
The 86 volume ratio was bolstered by the TRIN, which was below .60 all day,
and
breadth remaining above +1300 the entire session. There was no weakening of
dynamics, so no intraday short setups made sense yesterday.
Yesterday’s focus list was daytrader’s gold,
as
there were trade-through entries in all but a few stocks.
(
QLGC |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) +3.9%
and
(
TER |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) +3.7% led our semis,
(
ROK |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) +4.9%,
(
NATI |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) +3.3% and
(
ZMH |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)
+2.9% all having excellent moves.
(
MER |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating), the 89-day EMA setup, gave good
entry and was +2.1% on the session. The smokestack stocks, like
(
PX |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)
+1.6%
and
(
HON |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) +1.8% and
(
ITW |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) +1.5% were in line with the SPX. Net net,
if
you were scrolling, you were rolling. All of yesterday’s stocks are again on
your list, and you will be looking for intraday retracement
setups.
The SPX closed right at the .618 retracement
zone
to the 1063.65 rally high, with the .786 level at 1056.70, so expect some
churning. The Dow closed just above the .50 retracement, with the .618
retracement at 9775 and .786 at 9830. The levels are mentioned because they
will
be in play today and could provide daytrading opportunity, especially if you
trade baskets using some good retracement stock setups and shorting the
index
proxies.
The QQQs closed at 35.18, right at the .618
35.14
level, with the .786 just above at 35.50.
Today’s
Action
The early futures are green at 8:30 a.m.,
with
the S&Ps +2.90, Nasdaq +8 and Dow +16. If they open up and trade above
yesterday’s high, then reverse yesterday’s highs real quick, that would be a
short side scalp where price might trade down to yesterday’s wide-range-bar
midpoint, or lower. All of the weak handed position traders that went out
long
yesterday have their stops right below yesterday’s lows and certainly a
target
if the Generals are not aggressive buyers this morning. You know the drill.
Take
them down to take them up.
Have a good trading day,
Kevin Haggerty
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