You Saw It

• April 19, 2001
• Kevin Haggerty

A
pre-emptive strike by Greenspan for the fourth rate cut this
year; big-time volume (both OTC and listed); explosive moves by most of the
Semiconductors; and the outstanding 10-day rally in our ex-Chosen Ones
continued, led by the JNPRs, CIENs, etc., which, needless to say, are in our
game plan virtually every day because of their volatility and travel range.
Daytraders just have to let the Generals
make the decisions and then follow price and volume accompanied by Change in
Direction patterns.

Total volume for the NYSE
was 1.9 billion with 1.5 billion up and 402 million down for a volume ratio of
79 with an astounding 41,144 institutional blocks as the Generals scrambled to
put money to work. The Nasdaq also had its heaviest-volume day ever.

Monday’s headline of
“Earnings, Expiration and Funding,” was an understatement at best. The
rate cut was probably an overt move because the regional Fed drones had
indicated it is not the Fed’s place to act just for the market, so that had
dampened the pre-emptive enthusiasm as the month of May became the sole focus
for the cut by most observers.

Before yesterday, the NDX
had risen 27% and the SPX +10.3% from the .786 key alert zone. After yesterday,
the NDX is up 40.3% low to high and the SPX +15.4%. The
volatility travel range and percentage moves have been great during this rally
and of course accelerated to new levels yesterday.

I have included a table of
many of our daily trading stocks and what they have done over the past 10 days
and also from their bottoms. For most of the Semis, the bottoms were from
October through January. The
ex-Chosen Ones’ most recent lows coincide with the last low in the NDX. I didn’t
have time to calculate the daily travel range but obviously it is huge.

Semi’s

Last 10 Days	% Gain	Since Oct-Dec Bottom
( NVLS | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating)	+ 76	+130
( KLAC | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating)	+ 64	+105
( NVDA | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating)	+ 56	+207
( AMAT | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating)	+ 50	+ 61
( MU | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating)	+ 46	+ 76
( QLGC | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating)	+122	Â
( VTSS | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating)	+118	Â
( LRCX | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating)	+ 61	+140

(Ex) Chosen Ones

( JNPR | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating)	+136
( MUSE | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating)	+128
( NEWP | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating)	+110
( CIEN | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating)	+100
( BEAS | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating)	+ 95
( CHKP | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating)	+ 89

One of my seminar attendees
emailed me an excellent phrase yesterday. He said, “A bull market makes
geniuses of everyone and volatility makes all daytraders into geniuses.” Is
he ever right.

We leave yesterday with the
NDX having risen +9.5%, the Nasdaq +8.1% which is one of its top percentage
gains ever, the SPX was +3.9%, the Dow +3.9%, the transportations +3.9% and the
RUT +2.4%. In the sectors, the SOX is +11.7%, the XBD +7.4% and the BTK
+6.4%. 

I have included the SPX
chart from April 17 (mentioned yesterday)
which shows the three primary entries on the 17th. It includes a Trap Door, a
2.24 extension followed by a 1,2,3 close short entry and then a Reversal Buy
entry at the .618 retracement level.

Save these charts for your
records. They are a good reference.

Chart
1. Five-minute chart S&P 500 (SPX)
April 16/17, 2001, 

with 8-period high
and low moving
averages and 5-period EMA.

Stocks
Today

(June Futures)
Fair Value	Buy	Sell
6.85	 8.25Â	 4.90Â

In the big travel range
stocks — focus long or short whatever they give you — on
(
JNPR |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
CIEN |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
CHKP |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
VRTS |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
NEWP |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
ADBE |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
QCOM |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
MERQ |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
BEAS |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
MUSE |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
CMVT |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) and
(
VRSN |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating). There
will be more opportunities both ways than you can handle in these stocks.

In the Semis, start with
the equipments which are:
(
NVLS |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
KLAC |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) and
(
AMAT |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating). Also
(
NVDA |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
AMD |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
MU |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
LRCX |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
BRCM |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) and
(
VTSS |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating). Other stocks away from the tech sector are
(
FNM |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
FRE |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) and
(
MAS |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating). Also,
any kind of pullbacks in the brokers such as
(
LEH |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
(
MWD |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating), and
(
GS |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating). 

Have a good trading day.

Chart
2. Five-minute chart of S&P 500 (SPX) with

8-, 20-, 50-
and 260-period EMAs.

Chart
3. Five-minute chart of New York Stock Exchange Ticks.

Gary
Kaltbaum on TradingMarketsWorld tonight! Gary Kaltbaum will be appearing
on the
Intermediate-Term Trading board Thursday, April 19, at 8:00 p.m. ET. Be sure to take
this opportunity to chat with and have your questions answered by this leading
intermediate-term trader. Click
here to take your trading to a new dimension.