Your Personal Progress ‘Chart’

December 3, 2003
Chris Curran

The
December SP futures opened Tuesday’s session with a small gap down,
and after a narrow starting trading range between Monday’s close at 1,069 and
the Daily Pivot at 1,067, the contract began a choppy ascent to post a new
contract high, just over Monday’s high and longer-term Fib resistance. But,
once again, profit-taking took over and the futures spent the rest of the
session churning in a 1-point range around the Pivot.

The December SP 500 futures
closed Tuesday’s session with a loss of -2.00 points, and finished in the lower
1/2 of its daily range. Volume was estimated at 564,000 contracts, which is
right at the daily average. Open interest declined on Monday’s up move, as
longs took money off the table into longer-term Fib resistance. On a daily
basis, the ES posted a doji and a market structure high, with support in the
1,060 area. On an intraday basis, the ES posted a new contract high before
profit-taking took over again, leaving both the 60-min and 30-min charts with
bear flags hovering above gap support at 1,060 (see chart).

Wednesday brings us the Revised
Q3 Productivity report at 8:30 am ET, with a consensus for an 8.3% increase,
followed at 10 am by the ISM Services report, and its consensus of 64.0.

Your
Personal Progress Chart

I think a dedicated trader’s
progress can be compared to a chart that puts in a long base of steady sideways
action, and then has a major breakout to the upside, followed by a sustained
uptrend if the base was good. It can be VERY frustrating to get nowhere but
sideways for a long period of time, yet the knowledge base is necessary to get
the big uptrend that follows. I’m trying to make the point that “hints,
“tricks,” technical “mumbo jumbo,” and “holy grail” trading systems aren’t the
solution. Your knowledge, your curiosity, and your strength to develop a
foundation and a sense of understanding is the solution. Understanding what is
going on in the market NOW. Not yesterday, not 6 months ago, not 3 years ago
with the Internet bubble, and not next week. NOW!