As you know we like to scale-in to ETFs on the long side on pullbacks above the 200-day ma and short them on run ups below the 200-day. So far this year, our Model Portfolio in my Daily Battle Plan Trading Service has a track record of 22 winning trades and 4 losing trades using this approach.
Today many non-leveraged ETFs are above their 200-day ma and are overbought on a short term basis. In fact, profits in many were locked into after Monday’s strong rally. When you look at the leveraged version of these ETFs though, many are below the 200-day. The reason is because leveraged ETFs trade differently than non-leveraged ETFs, eventually causing price decay to occur over time. This price decay then creates havoc with the 200-day moving average eventually having them trade below the 200 when in fact the non-leveraged ETF is in a strong uptrend above the 200-day.
Today’s lesson is to be careful shorting overbought leveraged ETFs below their 200-day. The better way to look at them is use the 1x ETF, see if its above or below the 200-day and then trade the 2x as you would the 1x. You’ll get the added leverage and you’ll be on the right side of the market.
If you’d like to see the research report on this you can find it on my research site www.ConnorsResearch.com.
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Larry Connors is CEO and Founder of TradingMarkets.com and Connors Research.