Trading Markets

SPX Will Hit New Highs Before Reversing

The Generals obviously put some new Q4 money to work Monday, and it was in the most oversold sectors. But they can play the average down game, they have deep pockets.

Negative October Bias on Top of New $US Dollar Lows

The actual inflation factor for the real-world necessities of life for the consumer, like food, energy, health insurance, education, property taxes, clothing, etc, is obviously much higher than the bogus CPI numbers put out by the government.

Fed Loses Game of Chicken to Declining $US Dollar

Either the other markets will reverse and get in sync with the stock market, or the most likely scenario is that the stock market will reverse again and head south, as the $US Dollar comes under more selling pressure. The Fed action on 9/18 is a band-aid, and the credit, subprime and housing problems will continue to weigh on the markets, and the short-term game of chicken will most likely be won by a declining $US Dollar, not the Fed.

The Fed Choked and Decided to Inflate the Problem

The primary trading focus before the rate cut other than the major indexes and ETFs were the multinational energy and commodity stocks, in addition to some of the bigger technology stocks. After the rate cut, with the inflationary implications that go with it, there is more reason to maintain this focus.

The Consistent Market Strategy

The trading focus continues to favor the energy, industrials, commodity and selected technology stocks. The underperformers, and consequently, the short candidates on pullbacks to declining EMA’s have been in the brokers, banks, retail, homebuilders and consumer discretionary stocks.

PPT Is Masterminding the ‘Game’ This Week

Unless the market turns its focus to the new lows in the $US Dollar, the PPT (Plunge Protection Team) will keep this market from selling off much before the President addresses the nation on Thursday, which precedes any Fed rate cut action next week.

A Market on the Ropes

The reality is that the business cycle has not gone away because of the “global economy,” and we will continue to have bull and bear markets.

Powerful 1st Hour Reversal Strategy

The tail (news) continues to wag the dog (market), and the price moves are very erratic because of the lack of electronic execution liquidity, as buy-side traders are all hitting the same algorithm buttons at the same time.

Traders’ Short-Term Reversal Zone

The unknown is how hard will the PPT (Plunge Protection Team) fight to keep that from happening before the 2008 elections. My bet is that they will start their election manipulation from lower lows, but it will accelerate a very tradable long move for position traders, as the Generals and hedge funds push hard to save performance for 2007.