Wednesday Was a Stalemate
The glass half full says “They really could have put a bullet in the market yesterday. But they didn’t. Good sign”. The glass half empty says” It didn’t follow through. Not good”. The 200 day is close by and everyone is in hope mode right now. Nearly everything is pointing to a bear market transition […]
Has the Bear Market Begun?
Wednesday and Thursday will tell us if Tuesday was a bear market bounce or the beginning of a pullback rally. As I pointed out last week after the market moved higher for a day that it was imperative that it follows through. It didn’t and prices dropped significantly into Monday. This is the same scenario […]
Painful Pullback Not in Top 10 over Last 5 Years
Good Morning. Even though this pullback feels painful (as all do), there have been 10 pullbacks larger than this one since 2009 so the market is nowhere near as extreme as what the past 5 years has seen. Overall the US markets are oversold but short-term they are not at extremes. Most of the major […]
Overall Health of Global Markets Deteriorated
Good Morning. The market is now short term oversold. The overall health of global markets have deteriorated as we’ve discussed since the beginning of the year. The last stand for the US is it’s still above the 200 day ma technically holding its bull market status. Long side entries in US indices are viable here […]
Sugar Coated January Returns
Good Morning. The market is now back to short-term neutral territory. A healthy bull market would have held the intra-day gains yesterday and closed near its highs but a higher close is a step in the right direction. With today being the last day of the month, the historical bias is to the upside to […]
The Word Here is Caution
Good Morning. In my Daily Battle Plan for Wed Jan 29, I mentioned that in normal bull markets, days like Tuesday are followed by higher prices whereas in bear markets they reverse quickly. Even though SPY is still about six points from breaking under its 200 day ma, the behavior in the US is looking […]
Market Shrugs Off Apple
Good Morning. As was mentioned yesterday, the probabilities of a short-term rally were high due to the oversold conditions along with the month end upward bias. It was good to also see the market shrugging off Apple’s earnings. The key now is the follow through. Normal bull markets follow through from days like yesterday. Bear […]
Pivotal Day for Market
Good Morning, Today will be a pivotal day for the market. Should it be able to shrug off Apple’s earning, the month end upward price bias could kick in. Historically going back to 1993, this end of the month bias has been very strong when markets have been oversold. Today we’re at extreme oversold conditions […]
Two Main Themes of 2014
Good Morning, There have been two main themes I have been mentioning since the beginning of this year: 1. There were too many people bullish coming into the year. As I mentioned in the first commentary of 2014, in 31 years in the industry I had not seen a year enter where bullishness was so […]
Panic Needs to Precede Bottom
Good Morning, The US markets are now oversold with the ConnorsRSI reading on SPY at 20, and DIA reaching fairly rare air with a reading under 10. There is still very little fear in place in spite of the fact that the majority of days this year have been down. Ideally, I’d like to see […]
If They Don’t Go Down On Bad News…
The US markets remain in neutral territory today. What is encouraging is the way the market is shrugging off a number of earnings misses, especially from technology leaders. There’s an old saying “if they don’t go down on bad news, they’re likely going higher”. Another couple of days of missed earnings followed by higher market […]
Great Environment for Trend Following…
The US markets are in neutral territory today while many of the country fund ETFs under their 200 day ma continue to fall. This continues to be a great environment for long/short Trend following of ETFs. This environment has been going on now since October and has been providing a low risk/high reward scenario for […]