Today is the final day for the Daily Battle Plan. After 6 good years, we’ll finish 2014 with the ETF model portfolio in all cash. When I started the Daily Battle Plan, the world was very different than it was today. It was the 4th quarter of 2008 and the market was living through one… [Read More]
Daily Battle Plan
A Two-Day Pullback Here will Set Up a Nice Opportunity
The US market remains moderately overbought. As of now though, the US is the bastion of safety for the world as events in Europe and Asia continue to experience their short-term gyrations. A two-day pullback here will set up a nice opportunity to go long heading into 2015.
Trading will be Light, Hard to Imagine 2014 S&P Gains in the Low Teens to Disappear
The US market is overbought. There are high expectations for the market to continue to rise over the next three days and those expectations are reflected from last week’s buying. Trading will be light and it’s hard to imagine the powers that be will allow 2014 S&P gains in the low teens to disappear. Outside… [Read More]
The Quiet Upward Bias will Remain the Path of Least Resistance
The US market is very overbought but with light trading over the next few days, the quiet upward bias will remain the path of least resistance unless an out-of the ordinary event occurs, We’ll pick this back up again on Monday. Enjoy the Holiday!
The Powers That Be Want to See This Year Finish With Gains
Today’s commentary is identical to yesterdays. This could potentially be a quiet two weeks because its year end and due to last weeks rally, most funds will be looking to make sure the gains are booked. Headline news, especially from Europe and Russia are risks that are being reflected in the VIX. But the powers… [Read More]
A Two Day Pullback Required to Offer High Probability Edges
This could potentially be a quiet two weeks because its year end and due to last weeks rally, most funds will be looking to make sure the gains are booked. Headline news, especially from Europe and Russia are risks that are being reflected in the VIX. But the powers that be want to see this… [Read More]
Expect a Pause Within a Day or So Here
The worst weekly loss since 2012 is now followed by the best daily gain since 2011. This is what volatility looks like and until shown otherwise, the low volatility environment that was seen from 2013-June 2014 is now behind us. Intermediate level volatility doesn’t necessarily mean lower prices (see 1995-1999). What is does mean is… [Read More]
Talk About a Short Covering Rally…
9 of the 10 largest gainers in the S&P 500 yesterday were in stocks which were down over 35% over the past three months. Talk about a short covering rally… Two shocks to the system in the past 90 days and with the bull market now 5 ½ years old extra caution has to be… [Read More]
At These Levels, Caution
The VIX is up approximately 100% since Dec 5. It’s not often you see the VIX double in under two weeks but the demand for protection has skyrocketed with energy, bank lending exposure tied to energy prices, Russia, and today’s Fed meeting making for the perfect storm. If the Fed announcement today is in line… [Read More]
Being Prudent Here and Keeping Position Sizing In-Check is the Key
The overriding theme since last week is as energy prices go, so will the market go. Now there’s Russia in the picture, bank balance sheets around the world potentially exposed to loans pegged at $80 oil, along with tomorrows Fed announcement. Yellen’s policy has been to “manage volatility” and had the world’s markets been quiet… [Read More]