Currency Devalued, Economy Down, Market Up…For Now
From 1990 to 1997, Kevin Haggerty served as Senior Vice President for Equity Trading at Fidelity Capital Markets, Boston, a division of Fidelity Investments. He was responsible for all U.S. institutional Listed, OTC and Option trading in addition to all major Exchange Floor Executions. For a free trial to Kevin’s Daily Trading Report, please click here.
Commentary for 2/5/13
The SPX continues to make new highs after taking out the 9/14/12 1474.51 bull cycle high and closed 2/1/13 at 1513.17 [+1.1%], with a 1514.41 high. The index was +0.7% for the week, which was the 5th straight weekly gain while the % SPX gain for January was +5.4%.
Suffice to say, the market remains significantly O/B with the SPX monthly 5 RSI at 80.77, which is the most O/B since the 85.01 high preceding the -21.6% decline from the 5/2/11 1370.58 high to the 1074.77 10/4/11 low.
The economic news is divorced from reality as the current recovery is the worst in history from an economic trough, yet the major index % advance is not the best in history from a trough, but it is one of the best. That supports the reality of the Feds Ponzi Scheme to inflate the market, but it has not stimulated the economic growth and jobs expected and forecast by the Fed and the “herd” Economist establishment. One of the best quotes I have seen this year by was from the Democrats last week which I quote, “Best Looking Contraction You`ll Ever See”. Hard to believe!
The reality is that the current anti-business, anti-private sector and the evolving negative tax policies of the Gov’t cannot right the economic ship. The Fed has been successful to date in manipulating the market while devaluing the U.S. dollar, but in the end, “how did that work out for Zimbabwe”.
The end of January had a small cluster of minor Fib symmetry and the daily SPX 5 RSI had a negative divergence with a hook down, but the first day of the new month prevailed, just as it did for the previous 3 months, and the SPX was +1.0% on 2/1 while making a new cycle high at 1514.41, yet with another lower low in the daily 5 RSI.
However, yesterday was a reversal day for the SPX at -1.2% as it made a lower high and lower low and closed at 1495.71, which was below the previous 5 lows and 6 closes. The SPX has reversed again today and is +1.0% to 1510.29 as I submit this commentary, so yesterday is an O/B head fake until price proves otherwise, but I still expect the SPX to close the week below its last week’s close.
IV has recently hit new lows, and the best day trading opportunities are in the 1st hour, but that is no surprise as that has always been the case the majority of the time. The electronic openings are a joke and create the inefficient price opportunities, especially in the commodity ETFs and stocks. Another active period for contra moves has been the 11:30AM time period as European markets close.
There are 4 key time symmetry dates in June, which includes 51.6 [6 X 8.6] months from the 3/6/09 667 cycle low, and then a highly significant fixed Pi cycle date in early August. There is also a fib extension date at the end of Feb from the 4/2/12-9/14/12 SPX previous highs. You can get the exact schedule by taking a free trial subscription to my Trading Service and reading the Market Commentary for 2/4/13.
You can download for free 6 of my calculators that I use to measure price and time symmetry at www.geometricmarkets.com, and my new 200+ page manual “Markets Trade With Geometric Symmetry” is also available for purchase on the site. It doesn`t matter whether you are a trader, investor, portfolio manager, or analyst, because this product will enable you to pinpoint high probability reversal or acceleration zones in any market, including Stocks, Bonds, Commodities, and Currencies.
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