Why These Two Metals Were Today’s Big Gainers

As the war with Iraq draws now
appears over the horizon,

investors holding the “war trade”–long gold, bonds,
oil, short US dollar, and equities–continue to leg out of this trade.

Equities

The equity markets saw plenty of green today, as
stocks surged higher in anticipation of a quick and successful end to any war
with Iraq. Like last Thursday’s move, today’s was led by the tech sector and
retail sectors. The Nasdaq June contract
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was up 36.50 to finish at
1073.50; the S&P contract
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was up 27.70 to finish at 860.80; and the
Dow June contract
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finished up 250 to finish at 8100.

Fixed Income

Treasuries, on the other hand, saw plenty of red
today. The 10-year contract
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finished at 114-175, down 0-260; the
30-year
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finished at 112-28, up 1-102; and the five-year note
finished down by 0-165 to close at 113-025
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.

Metals

The industrial metals were the big gainers today,
in anticipation of a less negative economic outlook going forward–namely copper
and aluminum. Copper futures continued Friday’s gains, finishing up a strong
1.70 to finish at 77.15
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. Gold reversed its earlier losses and
finished up a slight .60, to finish at 337.2
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. And, silver
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was down 8.80 to finish at 445.0.

Energy

April crude fell by another 1.27% to close at
34.93
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, on the back of continued assurances by the US government that it
will counter any shortfalls in the oil market with a release of strategic
reserves. Natural gas continues higher, as the market now realizes that the
current shortfall in supply will continue for the forseeable future. The April
contract
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finished up 1.47% to close at 5.507.

Currencies

The US dollar continues to follow through on
Thursday’s move, as the USD index
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was up .80 to finish at 100.31.
The US currency made significant gains against the euro, finishing at 1.602
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.

Edward
Allen