It’s too early to tell how long this move lasts


Gary Kaltbaum is an investment advisor with
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Drat…was hoping the market would remain calm until back from
vacation.

In one of the most anticipated announcements since the O.J. verdict, the FED
raised rates another quarter point. As far as we are concerned, this FED has
changed its stance so many times in short order that we don’t know which end is
up. THERE ISN’T ANY INFLATION…THERE IS INFLATION…WELL MAYBE NOT. We really
don’t care what they say. We don’t care about the opinions of what they say. WE
CARE ABOUT THE MARKET’S REACTION! You don’t need us to tell you the reaction.
This time…the market exploded to the upside.

Since May 11th, we have remained very bearish on the technical condition of this
market as markets and more so, world markets have had mini-meltdowns. Actually,
some markets around the world crashed. During this time, we have told you that
in order for our stance to change, the market had to have a follow through day.
On Thursday the market FINALLY had a powerful follow-through day that we have
been talking about. A follow through day occurs when the market finds a low and
follows through with a 1.5% gain on heavier volume. As we have said numerous
times, a follow through does not always lead to a bull move…but every bull
move has started off with one. During the 2000-2003 bear market, there were
numerous follow through days that failed. We are not thrilled that it has
occurred on the 12th day off the low. This does not mean the market doesn’t work
its way upwards. History has shown that the optimum day would be in the
4th-through 7th day…but we will take it nonetheless. Just like our call of the
top, we will say the same thing about Thursday’s action. WE DO NOT KNOW HOW LONG
THE MOVE LASTS OR HOW FAR IT GOES. WE WILL JUST LET THE MARKET DECIDE. We will
now need to see leadership. We will now need to see leading stocks breaking out
on heavy volume off of sound bases. The more we see the better. It is vital for
a good move to have strong leadership to move things higher. Time will tell.

We are not ones to worry that this occurred right at the end of the quarter.
Skeptics would say it is just window dressing because the 2nd quarter was so
poor. Skeptics would say it was just a lot of short covering. They may be right.
We have no quarrel with the possibility…but we keep our blinders on and just
pay attention to the action. Bulls will give excuses in bear markets. Bears will
give excuses in bull markets. We believe in what we see.