Done It Again
They did it again. Similar to last night’s explanation of S&Ps pit
trading behavior in the Futures
Market Recap, locals sold the gap-up opening of the
S&P futures
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to fill the morning gap. Notice that this pop-up opening was one handle
above the previous (July 19) high at 1231.40, meaning that a move below this
figure triggered a same-day Turtle Soup sell reversal signal.Â
(Again, in Connors and Radshke’s Street Smarts, available at TradersGalleria,
this setup triggers in the same day, rather than on the following day as the
Turtle Soup Plus One setups do. Of course, tomorrow sets up
Turtle Soup Plus One Sell signals in the SPU1).Â
Another way to have put the early pump-and-dump, selloff puzzle together
is to have looked at the Market
Bias Indicators Page
and noticed that there are four down signals, a collective sign providing a
larger-than-normal chance that the market could sell off today and/or
tomorrow. Dave Landry pointed these out in his Stocks and Futures Outlook
commentaries last night. Although the market jumped up strongly on the
open, a strong downward bias from the Market
Bias Indicators Page
could have given you another reason to short on the high, as the signals
were even more stretched on the day’s gap open, and thereby more primed for
a snap back and move lower.Â
Debt futures are lower on the declining weekly jobless claims figures.
Even though this is a short-term seasonally effected economic statistic,
fewer unemployed could cut the odds of the Fed remaining on the aggressive
in easing monetary policy. Hence, with the odds now slightly higher for
slightly higher interest rates, debt futures are down, moving inversely to
their yield. September T-bonds
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handle indicated in
Levels From The Bond Pit. 10-year notes
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their first support from the levels page, but have found support at the
second level, in the 104 14/32-16-32 area. Notice on the five-minute charts
on the 10s the double bottom bar that resulted in a 1/4-point rebound. Both
contracts are now challenging their lows again.Â
In the currencies, Momentum-5
List markets euro FX futures
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Swiss francs
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overnight. Being momentum markets makes them eligible for an Off The Blocks
entry which triggered within the last half-hour. In a lap-down situation, an
Off The Blocks long entry does not trigger until a momentum market trades
above the high of the prior day’s last hour.Â
A mitigating factor in these currencies is that both markets are trading
at same-day Turtle Soup Sell inflections now. In addition, they have already
seen good gains off their lows. The strength of recent momentum here — and
their cup-and-handle-like formations — suggests the Soups or their Turtle
Soup Plus One Sell signals will not play out
significantly tomorrow, and they will travel to new multi-month highs.Â
Going the other way,
Implosion-5 List market October sugar
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triggered after a gap up and trade below yesterday’s last-hour close. Sugar
is down .18 on the session and down approximately the same amount out of its
Off The Blocks
short trigger.