Kudos To Carolyn
You wouldn’t know it from their closing prices. The
differences in the finishes spoke of yet another in a series of narrow-range
range days that have inspired premium selling and sent the
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Chicago Board Options Exchange’s Volatility Index, to a seven-month low. But one of the
most impressive rallies in the futures markets today came in stock index
futures.
And kudos go to Carolyn Boroden for nailing the bottom in
the
S&P futures
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trend, and pegging a pullback swing for entry in the 1255 area that culminated
in a 17-handle explosion. I have seen Carolyn’s price and time work provide a
consistent edge. Today’s analysis was a home run.
The S&Ps initially sold off, falling to a low of
1245.20, within the “four-cluster” support identified at 1243.50 to
1245.40. The Spooz then broke major resistance (at least an eight cluster) at
1255.50 to 1258.00. After holding support and breaking this key resistance, a
cluster provided by Carolyn (before it hit) out of the first pullback in the
1254 through 1256.70 area provided a second entry opportunity.
Traders familiar with Larry Connors (and Linda
Rashke’s) same-day Turtle Soup Reversals will note that the 17-handle explosion came on
resolution of the prior 20-day low (May 16), an area coinciding with the major
resistance clustering at the 1255-1258 level. Connors and Rashke’s work is
available at
TradersGalleria. Carolyn’s intraday
S&Ps and Nasdaq Price Action Levels are available on a subscription
basis.
Debt futures received a flight-to-safety bid as stock
indexes initially sank. T-bonds
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101 9/32 and
10-year notes
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contracts barely pulled back despite the S&Ps breaking of the 1256-58 area,
look for some longs to cover and for the Turtle Soup Plus One Sell setup in the
bonds — at a one-month high — to potentially work out.
Both new front-month
September
euro FX futures
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Swiss francs
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their Turtle Soup Plus One Buy
setups. Both contracts rallied in the final minutes despite higher
inflation in France and Germany. A stronger US equity market would likely result
in a re-test of recent lows. Note the contracts are on the
Implosion-5 List.
July crude oil
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and
natural gas
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warning” New 10-Day Highs
list appearances suggested that renewed upside momentum could follow through. Heating oil
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above yesterday’s lap above the 10-and 20-day moving averages for a finish .0190
higher at .8017.
In the softs, sugar has found a satisfactory price level between buyers
and sellers in the 8.60 area over the past week but which way is it likely to
resolve once it comes out of consolidation? The move is likely to be
larger-than-normal based on sugar’s Multiple Days Low
Volatility
reading: contracts often explode out of such lower-than-normal volatility
situations. Chart clues suggest that the move could be down. The contract is on
the Pullback From Lows
List. Also, the tail bars on 5/22, 6/6, and 6/11 and the fact that the contract
has failed to close above the 5/30 gap all suggest a move south.
Also in the softs, although
coffee
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setup to close .58 higher at 57.65, the pattern of lower lows and
narrow-range bars at the low suggest a potential move to fresh multi-year lows
out of this contract’s inverted cup-and-handle formation.
