What Killed The Early Rally


A first-half rally attempt petered out
as index futures succumbed to selling
pressure into the close. Many fears are continuing to weigh down the larger
market, with shipping woes, war fears, and weak economic data all playing their
part in reversing what had been a solid rally off of the 11:10 AM EDT lows. 

Dow Futures
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were the hardest hit, dropping 107 points to slip
below the 7500 level, while the S&Ps
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lost nearly 18 to fall
below 800. Both contracts did bounce slightly into the close. Nasdaq 100
Futures
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fell 9 points to 812.

The last-half action in the indices triggered a flight into the bond market,
with 10-year Notes
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ending the session up +110 and the U.S.
Treasury Bond
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10 ticks to the positive side.

Energies rose again amid more uncertainty regarding the
US government’s
intention towards war with Iraq, with Crude Oil
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gaining 0.11
per barrel to 29.75, again flirting with the lofty $30 mark. Gasoline
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appears to be setting up for a rally out of its latest pullback,
with Heating Oil
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and Natural Gas
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ending
Monday in the green.

Grains rebounded from Friday’s downer, with Wheat
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gaining 5
1/2 points to 381 3/4, in addition to Corn
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gaining more than 2
points and apparently stabilizing at a key retracement level. Soybeans
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were slightly positive at the ending bell Monday, along with
Bean Oil
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and Soy Meal
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.

The US dollar
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reversed its earlier gains as the market
headed south, closing down and slipping back below the 50-day moving average.
Inversely, the Euro
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and the Swiss franc
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were able to gain against it, but the Japanese yen
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and the
British Pound
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were unable to capitalize on the dollar’s
weakness. Canadian dollars
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were up slightly by session end.

In softs, Cocoa
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gapped and closed higher after Ivory Coast
tension escalated again, with talks breaking down, resulting in gunfights between rebels
and loyalists. Coffee
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recaptured the 20-day moving
average on good upside range, while Orange Juice
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continues to
implode, down 0.85 at 92.60. Cotton
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staged a one-day reversal
after Friday’s probe lower, and Sugar
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is challenging a breakout to new highs.

Pork Bellies
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pulled back to the 20-day moving average,
with Lean Hogs
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performing similar action, but with the
additional support of a trendline. In the rest of the meat complex, both Live
Cattle
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and Feeder Cattle
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sold off for the
second consecutive day, closing at their respective lows.