It’s All Good, Baby!
Nothing but great news for the market as far as
the eye can see today. Friday’s ruling on the Microsoft (MSFT) antitrust
settlement (no further penalties), signs that the Republicans may be surging
into the mid-term elections tomorrow, and the expected rate cut at Wednesday’s
Fed meeting have lit a fire under the market. Resistance levels will likely be
taken out on the opening, and the fact that there is really no reason to sell
until Wednesday (when we “sell the news”), means that the market is free to roam
on the upside. The type of action we will see over the next two to three days is
pretty much the domain of the daytrader, although we will be looking to add to
our bearish positions (and modify our bullish ones) in the next couple of days.
Currently the DJI futures are 140.0 higher, the S&Ps are 14.80 better, and the
Nasdaq 100 futures are bid 30.00 higher. Europe is cruising at the moment with
the FTSE 100Â up 131.70 points or 3.29% , the DAX is up by 120.63 points or
3.81%, and the CAC 40 is 71.12 points or 2.29% better. In Asia, the Nikkei
gained 45.24 points or .52%, and the Hang Seng rose a whopping 313.15 points or
3.33%. Interest rate futures are lower, the dollar is modestly higher (sell it),
crude futures (December) are $.25 lower, and gold futures are down a hair.
As we head into what looks to be a two to three day orgy for the bulls, it will
be important to remain disciplined and vigilant. We will look to turn our long
call positions into vertical spreads by selling an equal number of further
out-of-the-money calls against them, and we may add to our bearish positions in
the retail sector.
Volatility
Volatility was crushed Friday with a combination of the passing of the
payroll numbers, the rally, and the fact that it was Friday, delivering the
1-2-3 punch. The VIX fell 1.93 to 33.97, the VXN dropped 3.13 to 49.86, and the
QQV fell 2.68 to 42.04. Even though we are set to rally, vol will probably
remain relatively firm into the election/FOMC, but pros should
use that as a selling opportunity, as it should resume its freefall afterward.
Update:Â (11/01/02)
DIA — Bought the November 80/84/85/89 call condor for $1.50 (25%).
DIA — Bought the December 80/84/86/90 call condor for $1.20 (25%).
KSS — Bought the January 50/60 put spread for $3.00 (25%).
New Recommendations
None.
Working Orders (Old Recommendations)
BGEN — Those who bought the January 40 calls at $2.10 (25%), sell an
equal amount of the January 45 calls at $1.10 to flip into the January 40/45
call spread at $1.00.
QQQ — Those who sold the January 23 /26 call spread at $1.50, bid $1.80 for the
January 20 /23 call spread (somewhere near $23.00 should get you done).
WAG — For those long the January 35 puts ($2.50, 50%), sell an equal number of
the January 30 puts at $1.50 to flip into the January 30/35 put spread at $1.00.
Recap of open trades
Long-term
Reverse Collars
CIEN — Long the January 2.5/5 reverse collar at
$.40 (25%).
Buy-writes
HAL — Long the January 15 buy-write at $12.05 (100%).
Proxy buy-writes
DYN — Long the January 15 calls at $3.20 — left over from proxy buy-write
(50%). Left for dead.
Complex Strategies
None.
Directional Positions
None.
Short-term
Call Positions
BGEN — Long the January 40 calls at $2.10 (25%).
CCU — Long the January 40 calls at $2.00 (25%).
Call Spread Positions
DIA — Long the November 80/84/85/89 call condor at $1.50 (25%).
DIA — Long the December 80/84/86/90 call condor at $1.20 (25%).
QQQ — Short the January 23/26 call spread at $1.50 (25%).
Put Positions
KSS — Long the January 50/60 put spread at $3.00 (25%).
WAG — Long the January 35 puts at $2.50 (50%).
Spread Positions
Stops
None.
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- Options trading involves substantial risk and
is not suitable for all Investors. - Also note that spread strategies involve
multiple commissions and are not risk-free. Most spreads must be done in a
margin account.
- Because of the importance of tax
considerations to all options transactions, the investor considering options
should consult with a tax advisor as to how taxes may affect the outcome of
contemplated options transactions.
- Supporting documentation for claims,
comparisons, recommendations, statistics or other technical data will be
furnished upon request. One or more of the contributors to these
commentaries may have a position in one or more of the securities mentioned.
- It is important to note that the options
strategies discussed herein are not suitable to all investors. Options are
complex investment tools and involve substantial risk. Moreover spreading
strategies do not eliminate risk and involve multiple commissions.
- Note: All individuals must have read the ODD
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