The New Phase Of Speculation

February 13, 2003
Daniel Beighley

The
markets are once again in the red midday, with the indexes marking
new lows for the year. Retail data released pre-market failed to motivate any
buyers, as price action opened flat and has maintained a downtrend. Geopolitical
concerns continue to dominate market perspective, with speculation for traders
now dominated by when war with Iraq may breakout, not if.

In economic news, retail sales were down
0.09% vs. expectations of a 0.6% loss, retail sales ex-auto were up 1.3%
vs. expectations of a 0.5% rise.

The 10-year U.S. Note
is +215 at 115 155.

The Dollar is -1.09 at
99.64.

Gold is +5.40 at 358.00.

Crude OilÂ +0.28 at
36.05.

Volume is at 700,586,000
on the NYSE, and at 682,289,000 on the Nasdaq.

Market breadth is negative,
with NYSE declining issues over advancing issues by a ratio of 1.54, and down
volume over up volume by a 5.43 ratio. Nasdaq declining issues over advancing
issues are at 2.22, and down volume is over up volume by a 6.18 ratio.

Biggest Dow losers are:

Stocks In The News:

Computer hardware company Hewlett Packard
(
HPQ |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating), +2.11% at 16.97, is seeing some buying pressure as Merrill Lynch says
it believes the company will exceed its quarterly expectations.

Media company Fox Entertainment
(
FOX |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
-3.28% at 25.65, has been upgraded by UBS Warburg to “buy” from “neutral” after
beating its second-quarter earnings by $0.04 with profits of $0.32 per share.

Grocery retailer Whole Foods Market Inc.
(
WFMI |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
+7.64% at 49.31, beat its first-quarter estimates by $0.01 with profits of $0.41
per share.

Insurance company Lincoln National
(
LNC |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
-3.76% at 27.64, has been downgraded by Salomon Smith Barney to “in-line” from
“outperform”.

Gold miner Barrick Gold
(
ABX |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating), +2.55% at 16.10 beat its fourth-quarter estimates by $0.04 with
profits of $0.13 per share.Â

In the retail sector, May
Department Stores
(
MAY |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating), +1.52% at 19.35, has beat its fourth-quarter
earnings expectations by $0.08 with profits of $1.28 per share.

In the insurance sector,
American International Group
(
AIG |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating), +3.12% at 47.95, has posted earnings
$0.01 below expectations, though has guided higher for the full year 2003.

Medical equipment maker
Medtronic
(
MDT |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating), -4.57% at 42.99,Â has been downgraded by Morgan Stanley
to “equal-weight” from “overweight” after the company reported third-quarter
earnings in-line with estimates.

Healthcare facilities company
Express Scripts
(
ESRX |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating), -3.87% at 47.41, is down in the pre-market
after receiving a letter from the SEC concerning previous filings. The company
has also beat its fourth-quarter earnings by $0.01Â with profits of $0.72 per
share.

Chemical giant and Dow
component DuPont
(
DD |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating), +1.75% at 36.68, has been upgraded by UBS
Warburg to “buy” from “neutral.”

danielb@tradingmarkets.com

The New Phase Of Speculation

BUY THE FEAR, SELL THE GREED

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