What The Oil Market Is Closely Watching

Last night’s encouraging
remarks by Intel and today’s better than expected showing in payrolls pushed
equities higher for most of today’s session, however, the bulls lost momentum
late in the day and the indexes finished mixed as a result.

Equity

Equities finished mixed today. Systems software
and computer hardware led declines. Hypermarket and super center shares and
super center shares lost traction after the world’s largest retailer said it
would obscure the covers of four women’s magazines containing language or
pictures that might be offensive to customers. Biotech stocks fell after the
fourth largest US biotech firm said its 03 royalty revenue might be less than
expected. On the other hand, restaurant shares climbed after the world’s largest
hamburger chain said US sales rose 6.3% in May, the most in four years. The
Nasdaq future
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was down 21.00 to close at 1213.00. The S&P 500 contract
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was
down 3.00 to finish at 987.80,
and the Dow
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was up 15 to finish at 9055.

Fixed Income

The better than expected fundamental news weighed
on Treasuries today, however, July Fed Fund futures stayed put and are still
pricing in a 25bp cut. The 10 year futures contract
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was down -065 to close at 118-125; the 30 year
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was up -05 at 119-11; and the five year note was down -045 at 115-225
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.

Metals

July gold
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was down 5 in reaction to a
strong US dollar and closed at 364.50;
silver
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was up 4.5 at 4.50. Copper was up .05 at 78.30
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as hedge funds continue to add to their long positions, and aluminum
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was
up .0045 to close at .6645.

Energy

Crude was up on ahead of a weekend meeting by
OPEC members in Madrid to discuss a possible production cut ahead of Iraq’s
resumption of oil exports. July crude
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was up .54 to close at 31.28.
And natural gas was down .0011 to
close at 6.510
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.

Currencies

The dollar had its biggest day against the euro
since march and posted decent gains against the world’s other major currencies
on the back of brighter US fundamentals.  The USD index
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was
down by 1.20 and
finished at 92.59.