Put These Lines On Your Charts
What Wednesday’s Action Tells You
The narrow 5 point range day for the SPX
(
$SPX.X |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)
was followed by a 12.5 point wide-range-bar day yesterday, with the close at
1058.53, +1.1%, and in the top 5.0% of the daily range. The Dow
(
$INDU |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)
at 9849 was also +1.1%, with the Nasdaq
(
$COMPQ |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) and
(
QQQ |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) each advancing
+2.2%. The action was positive all day after only a small up opening. Overall
NYSE volume of 1.33 billion was just below the last two weeks’ average of 1.5
billion and 1.4 billion, but more important was the up volume yesterday of 1.1
billion vs. just 205 million down, for a volume ratio of 84. Certainly no question
which side dominated. Breadth was the most lopsided of the past two weeks at
+1640. Just as it was not short-term oversold going into yesterday, they are
not close to being short-term overbought right now with the four-day MA of the
volume ratio neutral at 50 and the four-day MA of the advances minus declines
just +90.
| size=2> |
Thursday
11/6 |
Friday
11/7 |
Monday
11/10 |
Tuesday
11/11 |
Wednesday
11/12 |
| color=#0000ff>Index | |||||
| color=#0000ff>SPX | |||||
| color=#0000ff>High |
1058.94
|
1062.39
|
1053.65
|
1048.23
|
1059.10
|
| color=#0000ff>Low |
1046.93
|
1052.17
|
1045.58
|
1043.46
|
1046.57
|
| color=#0000ff>Close |
1058.05
|
1053.21
|
1047.10
|
1046.57
|
1058.53
|
| color=#0000ff>% |
+0.6
|
-0.5
|
-0.6
|
-.05
|
+1.1
|
| color=#0000ff>Range |
12
|
10.2
|
8.1
|
5
|
12.5
|
| color=#0000ff>% Range |
93
|
10
|
19
|
62
|
95
|
| color=#0000ff>INDU |
9857
|
9810
|
9757
|
9738
|
9849
|
| color=#0000ff>% |
+0.4
|
-0.5
|
-0.5
|
-0.2
|
+1.1
|
| color=#0000ff>NASDAQ |
1976
|
1971
|
1942
|
1931
|
1973
|
| color=#0000ff>% |
+0.9
|
-0.3
|
-1.5
|
-0.6
|
+2.2
|
| color=#0000ff>QQQ |
35.95
|
35.64
|
35.21
|
35.08
|
35.84
|
| color=#0000ff>% |
+0.3
|
-0.8
|
-1.2
|
-0.3
|
+2.2
|
| color=#0000ff>NYSE |
|
|
|||
| color=#0000ff>T. VOL |
1.42
|
1.41
|
1.22
|
1.16
|
1.33
|
| color=#0000ff>U. VOL |
908
|
693
|
335
|
426
|
1.10
|
| color=#0000ff>D. VOL |
494
|
689
|
878
|
710
|
205
|
| color=#0000ff>VR |
65
|
50
|
28
|
37
|
84
|
| color=#0000ff>4 MA |
57
|
51
|
48
|
45
|
50
|
| color=#0000ff>5 RSI |
69
|
56
|
43
|
41
|
65
|
| color=#0000ff>ADV |
1893
|
1769
|
1146
|
1308
|
2454
|
| color=#0000ff>DEC |
1348
|
1475
|
2111
|
1916
|
814
|
| color=#0000ff>A-D |
+545
|
+294
|
-965
|
-608
|
+1640
|
| color=#0000ff>4 MA |
+491
|
+243
|
-20
|
-184
|
+90
|
| color=#0000ff>SECTORS |
|
|
|||
| color=#0000ff>SMH |
+0.5
|
-0.3
|
-2.4
|
+0.3
|
+3.6
|
| color=#0000ff>BKX |
+0.6
|
-0.8
|
-0.3
|
-.09
|
+0.3
|
| color=#0000ff>XBD |
+0.5
|
+0.9
|
-1.3
|
-0.6
|
+1.1
|
| color=#0000ff>RTH |
+1.0
|
-0.9
|
-0.6
|
+0.3
|
+0.3
|
| color=#0000ff>CYC |
+0.7
|
-0.3
|
-1.7
|
-0.2
|
+1.4
|
| color=#0000ff>PPH |
+0.6
|
-0.7
|
-0.7
|
+0.3
|
+1.8
|
| color=#0000ff>OIH |
+0.1
|
+0.4
|
-1.3
|
-.05
|
+0.6
|
| color=#0000ff>BBH |
+1.1
|
-0.8
|
-2.7
|
-0.3
|
+2.3
|
| color=#0000ff>TLT |
-1.0
|
-0.06
|
-.08
|
0
|
+0.7
|
| color=#0000ff>XAU |
-1.9
|
+2.6
|
-1.2
|
+0.3
|
+5.6
|
All sectors were green yesterday, as the semis
popped to +3.6%, with the XBD +1.1%, and CYC +1.4%, in line with the SPX. The
two sectors which have sold off the most recently, the PPH and BBH, rebounded
to +1.8% and +2.3%. Normally you would think gold would go the other way on
a day like yesterday, but not so, as the XAU was +5.6%. There was certainly
something for everyone.
For Active
Traders
The market action was excellent, as there was
no
real early excess emotion, and the major indices opened fairly quietly, but
up.
From there, it was up, sideways, up for four accelerating sequences. (See
QQQ
five-minute chart.) The .382 retracement level to the SPX 1018.32 level has
held
twice, and now the SPX is making its third trip up to the 1060+ confluence.
Price has been within this range since Nov. 3.
For traders, it was an easy decision day, as
the
pivot points gave you trade-through entry, and there was nothing resembling
a
stop all day. Coming into yesterday, the
(
SPY |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) had closed above its
20-day
EMA on Tuesday at 105.15 after just two days down from the 106.72 rally
high. I
said the pivot for the
(
DIA |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) was 98 with the 20-day EMA just below at
about
97.75. This was the most defined trade setup yesterday, as the DIA opened at
97.73, up from the previous close of 97.62, then hit a 97.68 low on the
third
bar, and then moved up to form a 17-bar Slim Jim at the 240 EMA and also at
the
98 level. The Slim Jim went from 9:45 a.m. ET to the breakout on the 11:10
a.m.
bar and never looked back, as the DIAs traded up to 98.95, closing at 98.80
and
in a closing range flag, which could be the platform for another go at new
highs
today.
You could have also traded the SPY on its
Slim
Jim breakout above 105.55 or used the futures, but a better choice was the
QQQs
because technology was strong early, led by the semis/SMH. The QQQ opened at
35.19, made a low of 35.15 on the third bar, then traded above the 20-day
EMA of
35.20, hitting an intraday high of 35.96 and closing at 35.81.
Net net, it was a trend up day that you were
able
to participate in without the opening gap taking away most of the gains. It
was
steady all day as TRIN worked its way down from about 1.05 at 9:45 a.m. to
below
.60 in the afternoon. The up volume to down volume ratio was better than 3:1
for
most of the day. For those of you that have the seminar materials, it was
also
the first consolidation breakout to new intraday highs, in addition to the
Slim
Jim, both at the 240 EMA, and also a trade-through entry above the 20-day
EMA.
For Today
After thrust days in the major indices, you often
get pause, so if they take out the rally highs early and you play, keep very
tight stops because there will most likely be second-entry opportunity after
the initial attempts. The SPY closed at 106.33, with the high rally close above
at 106.48 and high of 106.72. The same numbers for the DIA are 99 and 99.35
and they closed at 98.80. The QQQs closed at 35.81. vs. the high close of 36.10
and rally high at 36.18. Just put all of those lines on your various charts
and keep the levels from the Nov.
4 and Nov.
7 commentaries next to you, and then you can just concentrate on the price
action and setups around the levels.
Have a good trading day,
Kevin Haggerty