I Would Rather Be Lucky Than Smart…Here’s What Happened Yesterday
The flopping and chopping continues. Every
trader I talk with is doing their best to fight off boredom after the first hour
and attain the best score on the PS2s. A whopping 9 point range was the story of
the day, not a whole lot you can do short of waiting. However, technical
analysis aside, the tape did feel strong going into the close. Naturally, a
close above/below 925 and 919 should trigger decent follow through.
The one thing that I have found helpful, albeit on a selective basis is to
look for setups on the 5-minute chart as the day wears on. After the first hour,
HVT takes a back seat. The chart below
illustrates one such trade in JP Morgan (JPM)
yesterday.
You will notice that the premise for the trade is the same as it is for HVT:
- Trade with the trend
- Wait for a stochastic cross
- And in this case use a key moving average (60-period) and a bearish
technical pattern
The result was a trade that netted roughly 15 cents. Not a real humdinger by
any stretch, but it was 15 cents on 1500 shares that I had had previously. My
other noteworthy trade came in the form of “Gee, look what is in my account
department.”
I had placed an order to buy 1000 shares of AIG
at 55, the stock traded there, I did not get a fill and it moved up to 55.05. I
canceled the order and walked away for a minute or two. The next thing I know, I
notice I did get filled on the way back. There were a couple of prints at 55
which is how I got filled. This was one of the very rare exceptions where a
mistake actually went in my favor. The stock traded up to 55.20 before the S&Ps
began to weaken, so I exited at the market. My fill was at 55.15. I would rather
be lucky than smart.
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My new trading service,
“Dave Floyd’s Trading Room,” through which I offer live real-time
audio commentary, analysis and alerts, is now available. I encourage you to check
it out.
Click here for more information.
As always, feel free to send me your comments and
questions.
P.S. I also have a new trading module
available which teaches how to trade my HVT style through bar-by-bar chart
simulations.
Click here for information about the module.